TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says we're destroying huge amounts of capital, and investors are sick of it. No big mergers and acquisitions (although my fingers are crossed about Altria (NYSE: MO) (Cramer's Take), because MO needs growth and UST's (NYSE: UST) (Cramer's Take) really good). No initial public offerings of any consequence since Visa (NYSE: V) (Cramer's Take) despite a huge queue of private-to-go-public deals. No private-equity deals despite incredibly low valuations, valuations so minuscule that deals would have been done at gigantic premiums from here and still be much less expensive than they were. No threatening stakes by swashbuckling hedge funds. No new huge buybacks or dividend boosts, save CenturyTel (NYSE: CTL) (Cramer's Take), not that anyone cared about that one.
No nothin'.
It is an amazing time. It is the first week of an admittedly almost always bad month, but that's almost always because we are up going into September and funds want to lock in good gains.
Nothing to lock in now.
This market's like the Nasdaq in 2000 except the companies being sold off are great companies with huge cash flow and honest managements and great earnings. But there's nobody around to take advantage of the declines.
For all of the capital raised and the locked-up funds in hedge funds, for all of the trillions on the sidelines there is just nothing to buy. It is like the whole world's been caught out of position, much of it because the marginal buyer of just about every commodity -- China -- has disappeared and the marginal owners of most of the stocks that go down are margined and their investors are disappearing.
I keep thinking, well, where is Fidelity? Aren't there any buyers at T.Rowe? Trust Company? Capital? What happened to all of the money? Does no one have another dime?
It sure as heck looks so.
Everyone, from the mutual fund managers, to the strategic Europeans and the monster big Chinese, has just taken a powder.
And, incredibly, the declines are so swift that I believe even the biggest pools of capital are frightened. Of course, it doesn't help when Bill Gross, the best bond guy, says, "No more buying until Hank Paulson recognizes that we need an additional $500 billion in capital to get things moving" -- and, by the way, that seems right given that I expect about 25% of the mortgages taken between 2005 and 2007 to default, more than 3 million homes.
Why should Gross keep buying when a better moment could occur (although the Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take) deal he passed on, a 9.75% preferred, sure looks dandy and went to a premium)? Gross is right though, with Paulson not helping, just talking -- where's that Barron's plan? -- and with the Europeans being as deer-in-the-headlights as the Fed was 13 months ago, who the heck should buy bonds?
Still, I come back to a simple precept: There are tons of companies with great balance sheets and unimpaired earnings power that are declining as if they are small-caps with a couple of big sellers liquidating. The hedge funds are larger than the stocks they are trying to get out of, and there's no mercy from the brokers, who would just as soon let the hedge funds drown then throw them a bid themselves on merchandise that they will be inundated the moment that things unravel.
Sure, we could bring back the uptick rule and the naked short ban, and I think, once again, it would slow the process down and give buyers a chance to buy. But the SEC is as mind-bogglingly absent as Treasury, so more pain has to be expected.
What a moribund time. It's just wiping out years of the market's goodwill, and it's leaving the public thinking, "Never mind!"
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RELATED LINKS:
China Watch: Stocks Set to Double -- or More
Kass: I'm Sprouting Bull Horns
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Altria.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-05-2008 @ 10:03AM
Sheldon L said...
Many good points:
1) Yes there are some great companies on sale now that have clean balance sheets and great cash flow.
2) The big guys are all frightened and that has trickled down to the small guys they are taking it out on.
3) Investors across the board have been caught out of position having limited access to capital who would be buyers of companies in (1). I am one one of them. I have been buying but wish I had ten times more money to deploy right now.
9-05-2008 @ 8:33PM
Don Wilson said...
(LOW VOLUME + HEDGE FUNDS + BROKE MARKET MAKERS) + (NO UPTICK RULE + UNLIMITED NAKED SHORTING) = DISATSTER
This SEC needs to be wiped off the earth. What they are causing is amazing. They are either ignorant or arrogant. Either way... somebody needs to go into their offices and pull all the "academics" and COX out.
The SEC needs to be replaced with people who understand markets the way a sergeant understand battle. COX is nothing more than a general who never saw combat.
Get these morons out before something catastrophic occurs.
9-06-2008 @ 2:23AM
sandra wooden said...
Crammer
One question I'm a senior citizen thing about getting into hedge funds
What would you advise senior citizen
Thanks Sandy
9-06-2008 @ 9:42AM
Bob said...
The Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac fiasco shows that American markets are as rigged as emerging markets, but with less opportunity for growth. The only "safe haven" is global diversification. Wall Street's finally done itself in.
9-07-2008 @ 7:20AM
bill said...
I think cramer is full of it. back in nov. of last year when i called into his show to tell him to tell everyone it is a bear market he would not take my call. he is a pump and dump.his comment on the take over of fannie and freddy is also b.s.because it will not prevent to leave homes the took their money and ran never to come back to those homes again. this will be short lived again just like bear stearns.we are in the worst depression anyone wii see in our life time.