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Eighth straight monthly job loss shows everything is not fine with U.S. economy

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Political science empirical research teaches us that when U.S. unemployment is rising and job losses occur over many months, the political party in charge of the White House will have a difficult presidential election. (See: The American Voter, by Campbell, Converse, Miller, and Stokes.)

Federal statisticians will release one more jobs report, the September jobs report in October, but to-date the trend is not one of U.S. economic health.

The U.S. Labor Department announced Friday that the U.S. economy lost another 84,000 jobs in August, with the unemployment rising to 6.1% - - a five-year high.

The U.S. economy has now lost 605,000 jobs in 2008 after creating just 1.1 million in 2007. Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Friday the U.S. economy is not growing.

'U.S. economy headed in wrong direction'


"The U.S. economy is in recession. We don't have to wait for two-quarter date to confirm it. These are very bad numbers and the economy is headed in the wrong direction," Wang said. "Electioneering attempts aside, the U.S. economy is, objectively, in bad shape and anyone who fails to see this fails to recognize reality."

Further, Wang said candidates running for U.S. president can and will differ regarding the best way to end the jobs slide and jump-start the U.S. economy, as "that is part of the political process" but the economy's health is beyond dispute.

"Eight, straight monthly job losses shows everything is not fine with the U.S. economy. We have a serious economic slump on our hands and we need to find a growth catalyst, be it public or private, or both," Wang said. "This is not the analysis of whiners or complainers. This is an objective, accurate assessment of current macroeconomic conditions in the U.S."

Moreover, Wang said the headline, monthly jobs-lost number can seem mild, but it's not, after the U.S. economy's needs are considered. For example, a monthly job loss of 40,000 or 50,000 may seem minor, but investors / readers should also keep in mind that the U.S economy needs to create 100,000-125,000 jobs per month, just to keep unemployment from rising. Hence, the monthly job deficit is more like 140,000-165,000, Wang said, i.e. the economy is short about 150,000 jobs per month - - a massive jobs deficit.

"Free markets and capitalism must grow to remain healthy. If there is no growth, profits decline, unemployment rises, and the system breaks down. Capitalism without growth ceases to function, which is why we need to find a growth catalyst, soon," Wang said.

Economic Analysis: In line with economist Wang's analysis above, profit declines and job losses over time, also, by extension, do not bode well for the stock market, either, as the performance of the DJIA since December 2007 demonstrates.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 04:29 AM

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