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Bonds Are a 'Safe' Investment: A Big Lie Gets Even Bigger
The global stock market had more ups and downs this week than the career of Britney Spears. Don't look for the bottom to appear anytime soon following the worst week for global equities in six years.A parade of superlatives continues to weigh on the mind of investors, most of them bad. Unemployment is at a five-year high. Payrolls shrank by 84,000 last month, according to the Labor Department. That's more than 75,000 economists predicted, the Associated Press said. Rising interest rates spurred the biggest increase in the foreclosure rate in almost three decades, according to Bloomberg News.
Sure oil prices are dropping to near $105 but they are still high. No car, truck or airplane was ever designed with the thought that oil would be anywhere near that high. Gasoline prices have also come down but they are still at levels that many Americans can not afford.
Debates over whether we are technically in a recession or whether we will "escape" the designation are pretty pointless. Money manager Mario Gabelli told Bloomberg TV today that fears about the outlook for 2009 earnings are "well founded." As spending by the U.S. consumer slows, it brings the rest of the world to a halt, he said.
Those are pretty sobering words for large multi-nationals such as General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) who have been able to count on strong overseas business to make up for lax U.S. demand. That's a trend that can not last forever.
Some people are using the downturn as a reason to buy shares of beaten up financial stocks such as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) which went up today amid reports that Blackstone Group and KKR may be interested in buying some of the beleaguered bank's assets. If true, it will be interesting to see what will become of this once-proud franchise.
For now, investors should wait on the sidelines and be very selective. Not every cheap stock is a bargain. Remember, there are plenty more volatile weeks ahead.
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