Goldman Sachs shook up its ratings on the oil-services sector today, and made a notable adjustment to its "conviction buy" list -- Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) was ousted from the roster in favor of Transocean Inc. (NYSE: RIG). The brokerage firm still maintains a "buy" rating on HAL, but it's pretty obvious that the stock is now playing Jan Brady to RIG's Marcia.
So, why does Goldman prefer RIG to HAL? The former is more strongly levered to oil than the latter -- and, going forward, the analysts expect strong fundamentals and heightened oil prices to support "oilier" stocks. In a note to clients, Goldman said, "... we continue to expect a healthy oil-services spending environment through 2010, supported by low reinvestment rates and secular trends to more complex, high-margin drilling services."
Despite the bullish "buy" ratings on both securities, Goldman tempered its optimism by trimming its price targets on the duo. HAL's forecast was slashed from $63 to $58, while RIG's was trimmed from $189 to $178. The new price targets represent a 44.5% premium from HAL's closing price yesterday, and a 47% increase from RIG's Thursday settlement.
On today's news, HAL is down about 4%, while RIG is struggling to find its way into positive territory. Halliburton shares have gained nearly 6% year-to-date, and are hovering atop long-term support from their 32-month moving average. By contrast, RIG has shed more than 15% in 2008. However, the stock is still a strong performer, with long-term technical support in place from its 20-month trendline.
During the short term, RIG stands to benefit from an unwinding of pessimism. During the past 10 trading days, option players on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have bought to open more than 2 puts for every 1 call on the stock. Its 10-day ISE put/call ratio of 2.26 is docked at an annual peak, suggesting that option volume on the ISE is more bearishly skewed now than at any other time in the past year. If the stock capitalizes on today's bullish note -- and long-term technical support -- to extend its uptrend, RIG shares could win over some of the skeptics on the Street and attract new buyers.
By contrast, HAL's 10-day put/call ratio on the ISE is a tepid 0.79, with investors showing a preference for calls over puts. This relative optimism isn't too surprising, considering the equity's long-term trek higher -- however, as Goldman notes, RIG does seem better-poised to climb during the short term,
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-06-2008 @ 2:09PM
Ray The Money Man said...
I sold most of my Haliburton position at 32% up earlier in the summer, great move. But held my RIG position on the way down so I am feeling the pain! But it will be short lived, I think the bad guys are going to defend $100.00 oil.
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