Ford's (NYSE: F) latest PR push is based around the idea that the company can make money on smaller cars. Traditionally the big margins in the car industry have been on pick-ups and SUVs. But consumers don't want those anymore.
According to The Wall Street Journal (subscription required), "Ford Motor Co. is expressing new confidence about the auto maker's ability to sell new small cars at a profit in the U.S. market, citing new data about how Americans are beginning to value premium features and dynamic design over vehicles desired simply for their size." That assumption is based on two factors, neither of which is likely to be true.
Ford believes that it can cut its cost base low enough to make money on cars that retail for $20,000 or less. Chopping production expenses may lower overall costs, but it also cripples the company's ability to "turn on the juice" if car sales make a sharp rebound. Fewer factories with fewer workers puts some brake on the company's ability to quickly push out more vehicles in a short period of time. Cars that can't be made can't be sold.
The other challenge to Ford's assumption is that it can get a large market share in a part of the industry that is already dominated by Toyota (NYSE: TM), Honda (NYSE: HMC), and Nissan. As Ford ramps up, the Japanese car makers are moving into hybrids and improving their own small cars. Most consumer satisfaction surveys put Ford behind the Japanese in terms of the quality of their products.
Aside from those few small details, Ford's plans should work just fine.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-06-2008 @ 4:17PM
gumbo koontz said...
Doug
You tell me how many companies doing over $100 billion in sales on only 2 billion shares? Oracle has 5 billion shares but only doing 20 billioin in sales. Microsoft has 10 billion shares but doing only 60 billion in sales. General Electric has 12 billion shares but doing ony $170 billion in sales. Ford has only 2 billion shares and is doing $130 billion in sales. GM has only 500 million , yeah only 500 million shares and doing $170 billion in sales. Have you ever asked yourself how come SUVs and PickUps used to be so profitable yet GM failed to top $100 a share. There is a difference between making profts iin making SUVs and PickUps and making profits in selling them... SUVs and PickUps were as slim profitable as small cars ever since day one as GM and Ford pushed them hard with $10,000 rebates and $1000 extra for college bound kids with good grades. This was before GM and Ford won big concessions from UAW along with job buyouts. Now, dont tell me that small cars can not be profitable yet. Nobody knows yet. All you are trying to do is to stall the rebound in GM and Ford stock prices for lack of reasoning... You are getting too unreasonable for your own good...
9-06-2008 @ 4:20PM
gumbo koontz said...
Doug
I believe the only explanatioin for your nay sayings on GM and Ford is that you are concerned more about Big Oil stocks. Big Oil companies will reduce profits in the coming years as GM and Ford is getting geared up to build millions of fuel efficient cars and much fewer SUVs and PickUps. If you are still holding oil stocks and gold stocks, I advise you to unload them right now.... Smile! Happy days is back! Yo!
9-06-2008 @ 4:24PM
gumbo koontz said...
Doug
Come to think of it... More and more cars will be able to shut down at stoplights . This alone will chop several million barrels of oil in demand off the table everyday. Big Oil is finished!! You can start wrting about gold stocks now. I suggest that you urge gold CEOs to start hedging gold prices to protect future gold prices as energy costs will plummet and will fatten profits. Gold CEOs are fools for thinking that we will see $200 oil and $1500 gold ounces... They are fools that deserve to be kicked!!
You are giving bloggers a bad name... straighten yoursefl up and walk straight like you are supposed to..
9-06-2008 @ 6:29PM
Ricart Auto said...
Well they better get moving...they are a little behind on this fantasy.
Seems like they've been beaten to the punch.
But if they can come up with something the people can get behind...it might save their butts.
9-07-2008 @ 6:41AM
al coholic said...
It's hard to forsee the future of driving. If oil drops to $80/barrel and housing comes back next year will big pickups suddenly be important again? Maybe.
During the 1974 crisis it was felt that economical cars would rule the day but as soon as oil dropped in price we forgot all about it and as the fickle consumers we are, demanded just what we didn't need...more gas guzzlers.
Perhaps this time we have learned our lesson and will finally throw off the yoke of foreign oil in the next twenty years or so. Our foreign policy would sure look a lot different if we didn't need all that black gold.
9-07-2008 @ 11:45PM
Robert said...
Again, another fairly flawed article that seems more driven by disdain for Ford than following the facts.
First, you completely misrepresent Ford's plans. You are referring specifically to the conversion of two U.S. factories and a factory in Mexico to produce B-, C- and CD- segment based vehicles. First, your claim that they will not be able to respond to sales increases is completely wrong. They will, if anything, be able to sustain additional production of popular models.
The new Mexico plant will produce up to 500,000 units after its overhaul - far beyond that 50,000 or so trucks it builds primarily for Mexico yearly (and some HD for the U.S.). So, they're adding capacity there. The plants they are converting in NA will be flexible capable of building several different body types on at least two different platforms. Those two plants will produce about 200,000 units this year - they will produce about 500,000 units once converted. Their truck capacity will be limited to 3 plants - but those 3 plants can produce up to 1,000,000 units per year for the F-150, Super Duty and Expedition with overtime. That's nearly 50% above what those models will sell this year. The Chicago plant where the Explorer is going will move from 125,000 to 250,000 units
I count 1,200,000 potential units of utilization that Ford can use to ramp up if they need it - and use more effecitively once this conversion is complete.
Lowering production costs doesn't mean just cutting capacity or closing plants. It means lowering the number of buildable combinations from millions to 100s for many passenger cars, and from billions to hundreds of thousands on its trucks - much like the Japanese makers. It also means leveraging worldwide purchasing of components to save money. If our Fiesta shares 90% of its parts with the rest of the world, Ford can negotiate on a car that will produce 600-700k units instead of 100k for the U.S. alone.
Finally, the most recent customer surveys of quality rate the Focus higher than its outgoing model and closer to the Civic and Elantra (who lead the segment) - satisfaction is improving faster than the Japanese models. Strategic Vision measured a satisfaction jump twice as large as any other model in any segment.
This isn't some fantasy of Ford's. They have laid the ground work for a significant move here. I just wish the article reflected the facts and sounded less like an article by a paid Toyota or Honda blogger.
9-08-2008 @ 8:45AM
Jobu37 said...
Robert,
I am tired of people like you that point out the obvious. Yes Doug is a biased idiot that appears to receive a check from Japan Inc. but that gives you no right to present such a fact on this forum. And where do you get off presenting facts in a blog created by Mr. Mcintyre? I have always thought facts were not allowed when it came to blogs written by this misguided individual. But since you have demonstrated that it is possible to include facts in a Mcintyre blog let me add a few.
Doug says "Japan is improving it's own small cars". If you call the recent "all-new" offering from Toyota in the form of the Corolla an improvement you may want to go ask the Toyota loyalists who are having a very hard time seeing the improvement. This all new model has more rebates than it's predecessor and it has been barely able to meet last year's sales numbers in the hottest small car environment in the U.S. market's history. Honda's upcoming refresh hitting the market in weeks is also much ado about nothing. They have done nothing to improve the shortcoming of the current model, which include being inferior to the Focus in handling, interior noise level, but do match the Focus for polarizing styling. The Focus now has production up to speed again so it is very likely that the Focus will continue to gain marketshare in the C-car segment for months to come. Ford also has more high end versions on dealer lots since these are the models that they underestimated the demand for earlier in the year. The SEL models are going to make this version of the Focus even more profitable than they currently are. And things get only better for Ford once they start aligning their wage structure in line with the new UAW contract. Not to mention the next version of the Focus will spread development costs across sales globally. As far as not having the capacity to keep sales up, Robert brings up a very good point regarding the factory in Mexico. Honda and Toyota are currently limited in their production of B cars while Ford will be able to sell as many as the U.S. market demands. Since by all accounts the new Fiesta will put the Yaris, Fit, and also ran Versa to shame that extra capacity will come in handy.
Doug, in the future, you might want to check sales numbers before including Nissan as a player in the small car market. The Sentra and Versa are bit players at best. The Sentra and Versa combined have a very hard time matching Focus sales. Even after Nissan has decided to buy marketshare the last two months.
Ford has demonstrated in recent times the ability to make the right moves. Every month the perceoption lag that exists in the market erodes a bit more. By the time the new Fiesta and Focus hit the market the only people not looking on with interest will be the blindest of loyalists or in other words the Douglas Mcintyre's of the world. Doug you just keep on pushing your propaganda. Each time you write a story like more and more people get to see you for what you are....an idiot.