On November 29, 2007, IHOP, now DineEquity (NYSE: DIN), announced it had completed the acquisition of Applebee's, with CEO Julia A. Stewart commenting that "We are delighted to complete the acquisition of Applebee's as it represents an opportunity to create significant long-term value for IHOP shareholders over and above what we could have achieved on a standalone basis." On that day the stock closed at $52.29.

The stock closed at $23.97 Monday, and will likely fall farther today following CFO Thomas G. Conforti departure after nearly six years, a fact the company disclosed in a press release euphemistically titled DineEquity, Inc. Announces Chief Financial Officer Transition.

Mr. Conforti "resigned from the Company effective immediately to pursue other opportunities." What those opportunities are, we don't know, but apparently they're more exciting than working at a company whose stock has declined by more than 50% in the past year.

Of course, it's always a red flag when a company's CFO resigns, and investors would do well to be skeptical here -- the move was abrupt, and no permanent replacement has been named.

Back when the deal was first announced, I wrote that "IHOP's revenue in 2006 was lower than it was in 2002. So maybe this is a case of two drunken sailors trying to hold each other up. There's nothing much to get excited about for shareholders of either company."

So far that's been an understatement but I won't take too much credit. The fact is that company-changing mergers and acquisitions rarely create value, and in the long run, betting against them is likely to produce a pretty good track record.