After last Thursday, when the Dow lost 345 points, I speculated that another bailout plan would emerge over the upcoming weekend. As I posted, there was no obvious reason why the market fell so much that day. But one of the possible clues of trouble was that Bill Gross, who manages the $800 billion Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO), was making noises about how the government needed to spend $500 billion to save the housing market.
Coincidentally, Gross -- whose holdings include $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) -- is rumored to have "helped" the Treasury with its bailout plan for Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE). And he has profited handsomely from it since he bought the MBS during the panic-- which have risen in value post-bailout.
The reason I felt that a bailout was coming is because this administration has a solid track record of responding to stock market plunges with weekend rescue plans. Evidently it is concerned that Asian markets -- more specifically China's which happens to own $340 billion worth of MBS -- need a weekend bailout plan so when their markets open on Monday they will have something to celebrate. The Big Picture has provided a helpful service by listing the six Sundays in the last 14 months that the government has announced a new bailout plan for the financial markets.
Here are the six bailouts which it summarized as follows:
- "August 2007, when the credit crunch was officially recognized by the Fed, when they cut the discount rate.
- December 2007, with the announcement of the [Term Auction Facility] TAF and other credit facilities;
- January 2008 Soc Gen panic -- in which a French bank unloaded a $7.1 billion securities position in a panic -- and a 75 [basis points] emergency [rate] cut;
- March 2008 with the Bear Stearns bailout.
- July 2008 the first Fannie/Freddie rescue attempt
- September 2008 the actual Bailout of Fannie/Freddie"
These weekend bailouts signal an economy and a government that's in a heap of trouble. They seem to share three common features:
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Panic. They suggest that the government seems to believe that it is better to do something -- whether it makes sense or not -- and to do it fast. And these panicked plans are often "sold" to the public with slogans -- such as "too big to fail" or "stopping turmoil in the financial markets." But their purpose is elusive -- beyond bailing out the winners and letting the losers twist in the wind.
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Secrecy. It it never clear why the government is making these moves until after they have been put into effect. While we supposedly live in a democracy, these secretive deals are not publicly debated and they use taxpayer's money without letting the public assess their costs and benefits.
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Ineffectiveness. For instance, the rate cuts and the use of Treasury funds to bailout bad investments have not restored the credit or housing markets. But they have driven up consumer prices as mortgage rates have risen, housing prices continued to plummet, foreclosures hit records, the deficit keeps rising, and bad loans soar.
With an election approaching, these weekend bailouts seem to be designed to keep the current party in power while kicking the real solutions into the next president's term. But as The Big Picture suggests, if the purpose is to boost the stock market, these bailouts are becoming less and less effective every time they are announced. And since last August, the S&P 500 has lost 13%.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.










