While intoning somberly about how the global financial markets would collapse absent its wipe out of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) common and preferred shareholders, the Treasury has gotten a very slim payoff from its latest weekend bailout plan. To be sure, mortgage rates have fallen almost four-tenths of a percent and the value of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may rise.
But is it worth all the pain? Investors in their 1.6 billion common shares have lost tens of billions of dollars in shareholder wealth ($139 billion off their peak prices), preferred shareholders will take $30 billion worth of write-offs, and the taxpayer will be on the hook for somewhere between $200 billion and $800 billion. BusinessWeek reports that "the banking industry [is expected] to collectively write down $25 billion to $30 billion on their balance sheets for losses on the preferred shares they are holding."
These banks will experience a decline in their capital ratios which could put some in peril. "There are 12 banks and thrifts that would lose 5% or more of tangible capital were they to take a 100% aftertax, mark-to-market adjustment on their GSE preferreds," writes BusinessWeek. It reports that three banks in particular will fall below minimum "well capitalized" levels -- Gateway Financial Holdings (NASDAQ: GBTS), Midwest Banc Holdings (NASDAQ: MBHI), and Cascade Financial (NASDAQ: CASB).
Besides mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holders Bill Gross ($500 billion) and China's People's Bank ($340 billion), two happy campers are the recently departed Fannie and Freddie CEOs who stand to make $23 million in severance for their handiwork.
Meanwhile, after a pop on Monday, stocks are not far from where they were before this latest weekend bailout. If their blunders weren't so costly to taxpayers, the Keystone Cops running this place would be comic relief.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)
9-10-2008 @ 10:59AM
Dan Barnett said...
But the common Freddie (FNM) is now about 88 cents as opposed to $5 on Friday. & with a dividend due shortly there is alot more pain to go around when it doesn't get paid.
So banks held Freddie & Fannie and got hurt when the stocks got crushed?
This is a surprise?
The whole thing hurts too much to laugh & I'm too big to cry.
9-10-2008 @ 3:42PM
Angela said...
Thank you George W Bush. Another mess you've got us into!
9-10-2008 @ 3:52PM
SAM said...
WHY ARE WE BAILING OUT FREDDIE MAC AND FANNIE MAE? WE DID THE SAME THING WITH THE S & L BACK IN THE DAY OF SENIOR GEORGE BUSH. ALL THAT MONEY HAD TO GO SOMEWHERE SO WHERE IS IT AT? BEFORE ANY BAIL OUT I WOULD HAVE THEM INVESTIGATED. I WOULD MAKE THOSE ACCOUNTABLE (RICH CEOS) AND TAKE EVERYTHING THEY OWN (PROPERTY, SWISS BANK ACCOUNTS ETC) FOR PAY BACK THEN LETS SEE WHAT'S LEFT OVER. I DIDN'T SEE ANY OF THESE RICH SO & SO'S TRYING TO HELP THE POOR PEOPLE WHO WERE LOSING THEIR HOMES SO ... WHY SHOUIILD WE HELP THEM? AND, DON'T GIVE ME THE BS THAT WALL STREET WOULD FALL APART IF WE DIDN'T. PEOPLE MAKE AND LOSE MONEY EVRYDAY ON WALL STREET ... IT'S A GAMBLE. FORCING THE PEOPLE TO BAIL OUT BIG CORRUPT CORPORATIONS IS SOCIALISM IF I EVER SEEN IT.
9-10-2008 @ 4:06PM
bleu said...
Bail out the financial institutions and take them over, help out the airline industry and take that over, get after the health care providers and insurance companies and take them over.
"Help wanted, Dictator or prior TAKE OVER experience needed".
9-10-2008 @ 4:54PM
karen lozano said...
is the average taxpayer going to be able to take a loss on their income taxes? since we are the ones bailing them out and giving them most of their "loses" back,
how about our write off? I don't even own any stocks yet i am just as involved as they are, but I haven't received any of the money they received in the past only footing the loss!
9-10-2008 @ 4:55PM
Larry said...
No corporations should ever be bailed out. the mom and pop operations never get any bailouts so why should large companies get help. I know they say it is to help the people working at these companies so they would not lose there jobs. If Walmart would go broke tomorrow the people that work for Walmart would have a job in short time. Only the Officials of Walmart would lose not the small workers. Remember one thing the people still need what WalMart sell. People would open stores in a few weeks to take up the slack ( I would) and hire the people out of work.
9-10-2008 @ 4:56PM
MIMI said...
I KNOW....LET'S MAX OUT OUR CREDIT CARDS AND TAKE OUT MORTGAGE LOANS WE HAVE NO INTENTION ON PAYING BACK....AND WE CAN BLAME IT ON GEORGE BUSH!
9-10-2008 @ 5:21PM
gary said...
Look back at Bush's bragging for the last 5-6 years about the robust economy and housing market which turns out was phony! Raines, formewr head of Fannia Mac jujst left a year ago and he got $38 million....amazing how much $ the government has to give away.
9-10-2008 @ 5:09PM
Star P said...
Maybe if they take the interest rate off, then we will pay off the loans.
9-10-2008 @ 5:33PM
Jack said...
Well, as usual the tax payers get the shaft again, when the government takes over the tax payers suffer, look at the Postal system, how many increases have we seen in the past 2 years?
Bottom line, tax payers, the biggest class in this country will protect the rich by footing the cost of this bail out as with the profits of oil companies, these past 8 years have shocked me to falling from upper middle class to poverty now, thanks to law makers and favoring the companies , utilities and more, rich get richer as the poor fall farther, the division between poor and middle class are disolving quickly these past 8 years, and thanks to McCain who backed BUSH, words as so different to actions, just look at his voting record, hmmm almost identical to BUSH's.. so, action speaks louder than words. Think about that.
9-10-2008 @ 5:50PM
Gene said...
Let the greedy investors bail them out.
Why should the taxpayers do it? Why are we
responsible every time something goes
wrong? Who is going to bail me out at
tax time? This country is slowly being
taken over by the Government. We
are becomming a communist nation.
9-10-2008 @ 5:54PM
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS said...
Let's see; if I take on Fannie or Freddie and really screw it up; I get to walk away with $23 Million; and the Government (we the people) pay it! Nice touch, eh?
9-10-2008 @ 6:04PM
Juleenh said...
Has it really escaped peoples attention that it's not all of the homeowners defaulting. It was based on loans being issued when there was no income to support the payments. This has very little to do with Bush. This is people getting loans when they shouldn't have in the first place inflating prices and interest rates. Then did anyone bother to notice what the severance packages are for the top CEO's? In the MILLIONS. If you messed up in your job would any of us get a penny in severance? That should be considered payment to those of us that will be basically paying our mortgages not only to the bank but to the gov't in taxes too.
Dumb move on our part for letting this happen.
9-10-2008 @ 6:27PM
The Real Issues said...
The Real Issues are the lack of monitoring by the Bush Administration and the 90-95% approval of Senator McCain's of its policies. The issues: Lack of oversight for FHA mortgages which should have been used instead of the predatory so-called creative ARMS which were used for anyone who could be breathe. Now there is tightening after the disasters....now Pres. Bush with approval from Sen. McCain is the 1st president not to attend the Republican convention because he now has to do his job...oversight of the hurricane territories and oversight of the banking/lending industries. The no tax Republicans have now caused the largest deficits ever, squandered the surplus, with no end in sight. No taxes....I doubt it, because the 1st President Bush, said "No New Taxes" and he taxed......Historically during the last 30 years, only one president has had both peace and prosperity and he was impeached....President Clinton, a Democrat.
9-10-2008 @ 6:27PM
teltech54 said...
Screw these two banks. All we are really doing is saving a few investors from losing their shirts. Why should us little guys who have to eat cardboard to stay alive have to pay higher taxes to bail out a couple of banks so the rich can stay rich. This is a crock of shit and these banks should be left to flounder. if they can't survive they shouldn't be around. Economics takes care of itself and the government should just stay out of it and let the cards fall where they may.
9-10-2008 @ 6:30PM
The Real Issues said...
Americans, do not be fooled with verbage..look at Senator McCains and Governor Palins record...then decide. With McCain who indicated that Senator Obama does not cross party lines. Someone tell me why he should support failed Bush Administration policies that have caused: economic problems, massive foreclosures, improper oversight of FHA and lending practices, higher and higher gasoline prices, more individual and corporate bankruptcies, Federal money spent on IndyMac/FreddieMac/FannieMae/etc. We are going to pay for these bailouts made by the Republican Administration....plus $1Billion to the country Georgia....plus the trailors that had chemicals in Louisiana...plus the individuals who go bankrupt---we pay in higher rates for bills not paid....plus $10 billion a month on the wars......and some of you want to vote for the real tax spenders....the Republicans inclusive of Senator McCain.
9-10-2008 @ 6:39PM
ms.r said...
this is the pay back for that tax break you recived a few months back enjoy. did you really think it was going to get you ahead well hope you enjoyed it sigh it helped no one
9-10-2008 @ 6:45PM
Jaa said...
Angela said...
Thank you George W Bush. Another mess you've got us into!
Angela, you need to go back in time and research and learn just who asked for all of this leniency in loan requirements. It'll make you look less like a fool.
9-10-2008 @ 6:55PM
JAN said...
GOOD OLD GEORGE BUSH, MCCAIN WILL DO THE SAME
9-10-2008 @ 6:56PM
Sherry Kakol said...
All those greedy insitutions/investors didn't care when they were making tons of money off of creative financing that they knew wouldn't work in the long run. So they need to figure it out now & leave us poor taxpayers out of it!
Sherry Kakol