While intoning somberly about how the global financial markets would collapse absent its wipe out of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) common and preferred shareholders, the Treasury has gotten a very slim payoff from its latest weekend bailout plan. To be sure, mortgage rates have fallen almost four-tenths of a percent and the value of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may rise.
But is it worth all the pain? Investors in their 1.6 billion common shares have lost tens of billions of dollars in shareholder wealth ($139 billion off their peak prices), preferred shareholders will take $30 billion worth of write-offs, and the taxpayer will be on the hook for somewhere between $200 billion and $800 billion. BusinessWeek reports that "the banking industry [is expected] to collectively write down $25 billion to $30 billion on their balance sheets for losses on the preferred shares they are holding."
These banks will experience a decline in their capital ratios which could put some in peril. "There are 12 banks and thrifts that would lose 5% or more of tangible capital were they to take a 100% aftertax, mark-to-market adjustment on their GSE preferreds," writes BusinessWeek. It reports that three banks in particular will fall below minimum "well capitalized" levels -- Gateway Financial Holdings (NASDAQ: GBTS), Midwest Banc Holdings (NASDAQ: MBHI), and Cascade Financial (NASDAQ: CASB).
Besides mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holders Bill Gross ($500 billion) and China's People's Bank ($340 billion), two happy campers are the recently departed Fannie and Freddie CEOs who stand to make $23 million in severance for their handiwork.
Meanwhile, after a pop on Monday, stocks are not far from where they were before this latest weekend bailout. If their blunders weren't so costly to taxpayers, the Keystone Cops running this place would be comic relief.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.
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Reader Comments (Page 4 of 4)
9-11-2008 @ 4:05PM
Delicious said...
We should all remember Phil Gramm who is John McCain's chief financial advisor is one of those responsible for deregulating the banking, mortgage and financial institutions. This caused the sub-prime fiasco as well as the failures of mortgage and financial institutions and the closing of banks. The average American tax payer will have to put out the cash to cover the butts of Gramm and his cohorts but they will receive big bonuses and retirement packages instead of being fined and held accountablle...way to go GOP aka Greedy Overcompensated Parasites!
9-11-2008 @ 4:02PM
delicious said...
If the name ENRON sounds familiar it is because of the hole left in the financial dealings that is over seen by the federal government...they went belly up and our Repuklicant controlled Congress refused to close the hole. Phil Gramm was one of those who helped blue print the hole and is now the head financial advisor of the so called Repuklicant candidate John McCain...he has no experience in anything except being ignorant. He barely made it out of the Naval Academy only because of his father and grand father being Admirals. Then he crashed 5 planes before becoming a POW and now exploits that...the people who did not come home from Vietnam are the real heroes and not McBu$h.
9-14-2008 @ 7:29PM
JMorrow said...
I don't believe "W" put a gun to anyone's head and made them borrow money they could not afford to repay to purchase a home for much more than it was worth. Unfortunately, too many people watched too many episodes of "Flip this House". It's time to grow up and take responsibility for your own actions.
9-18-2008 @ 10:45PM
sgentilejr said...
IT IS JUST NOT FAIR.
How dare news reporters ask Sarah Palin trick questions like what do you think about The Bush Doctrine or about Russia or about the economy . The reporters should only be allowed to ask her questions that a Republican from Alaska should know the answer to. Such as what type of knife do you use to skin a moose. or What time of day is The Simpson’s and King of the Hill on the Fox Network. Or What type of an axe do you use to split firewood. Come on guys give her a break...she only wants to be Vice President.
9-18-2008 @ 10:53PM
sgentilejr said...
While Bill Clinton gave us a new definition of sex.....
Ronald Reagan gave us the 1987 Stock Market Crash, Bush Sr. gave us the Saivings and Loan crisis. Bush Boy has giving us the largest deficits, a stock market crash, the largest banking failure in the history of the World and a " I made a mistake $4 trillion dollar war in Iraq . Come on guys give Bush Boy some credit..he has topped both Reagan and his daddy. No US President in our nations 230+ year history has given us as much chaos as Bush Boy has.
9-23-2008 @ 10:30PM
MoNay said...
MANY MANY people from both political parties brought us to this financial crisis!!! Those placing all the blame on the Bush Administration simply do not know all the facts. The gov didn't bailout Lehman Brothers (CEO Richard Fuld made 789 million in the last decade). Frank Raines, Democrat & former CEO of Fannie was fined 2 million for accounting scandals, but he had made "tens of millions of dollars"for retirement. Both Fannie & Freddie spent heavily on community projects & lobbing for congress to block legislature curbing growth. Greenspan should have increased interest rates when the housing market started skyrocking. In 2005, Nouriel Rouline, economist; said home price speculations would sink the economy. In 2002, William Poole said that Fannie & Freddie didn't have enough cash to weather a storm. Angelo Mozilo, CEO of Countrywide; exploited the American dream of homeownership by lowering the standards to obtain loans. While Merrill Lynch was loosing a million a day, CEO Stan O'Neal was golfing because he had 160 million in his retirement fund. The short sellers on Wall Street and short sell any corporate stock they think lacks enough liquid assets, which decreases the corporations credit rating. Not all "bad debt" is uncollectable, some is simply debt from a corporation that has too many loans on the books.
The blame game will not bail us out!! Let us hope both parties can agree on a plan that stablizes the market - ASAP. Government bail out that waited to long caused the great depression.
This bailout is for stabilizing the financial markets & directly helps our economy. Strong economy strengthens the dollar & provides more jobs.