Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) lost 45% of its value Tuesday; its market value is currently 21% of its reported net worth of $26 billion. At $5.4 billion, that market capitalization is a bit more than half the $9 billion value that BusinessWeek estimates its Neuberger Berman asset management is worth. But its announcement this morning of a $5.92 a share loss and its intent to raise capital did not impress investors who are driving its stock down another 7% in pre-market. [Please note update at the end of post].
Why? Lehman's numbers were worse than expected. Reuters reports that Banc of America's Michael Hecht increased his "third-quarter loss-per-share view by 39 percent to $4.80, [and he thinks] that a Bear Stearns-like bailout will likely leave little value for common stockholders of about $2 per share." So its actual results were $1.12 worse than Hecht expected. This came after a second quarter in which "Lehman lost $2.8 billion in the second quarter and was forced to raise $6 billion in new capital," according to the New York Times.
The real problem, though, is that Lehman's strategic initiatives struck investors more as the intent to raise capital rather than actually getting the cash. MarketWatch reports that Lehman intends to sell 55% of its Neuberger Berman asset management division, to spin off its $30 billion commercial real estate division into a public company, to sell $4 billion of its UK residential real estate, and to cut its dividend by 5 cents.
Will taxpayers bail out Lehman or will the Treasury let it fail? We'll find out soon whether the government makes a decision this week or will wait until the weekend as it has done six times already.
[Update. Investors seem to have reversed their opinion about this announcement. Lehman was up "almost 15 percent to $8.95 at 8:57 a.m. in New York trading, while the cost to protect against a default by Lehman rose to a record. Credit-default swaps on Lehman jumped 115 basis points to 590 basis points as of 8:08 a.m., according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. That surpassed a previous peak of 580 basis points in March after the collapse and emergency sale of Bear Stearns," according to Bloomberg News. I can't explain this wide fluctuation -- but it suggests that there was big money betting on this announcement and some people -- possibly short sellers -- were surprised. Watch me on CNBC's Power Lunch today at 12:05 pm to discuss the latest on Lehman.]
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.










