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Be careful about buying Nintendo

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Do you own Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) in your portfolio? If you do, then watch out. According to Engadget, the latest Xbox 360 price cut from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has been very successful, and it may wreak havoc on your position.

Engadget says that the sales data show a 100% increase in Xbox 360 sales during the first weekend of the new pricing structure. And this is important for those trading Nintendo. It's of course impossible to predict short-term stock movements, but I can tell you that I wouldn't be a buyer of the ADR's right now, not at these levels. As many have been saying, the game has changed now. It could be that this initial sales spike for the Xbox 360 won't last, and that the Nintendo Wii will still be king of the holidays. There's no question demand will remain strong for the Wii. It is a good system, after all, and it has a lot of brand momentum behind it. But now that consumers can get an Xbox 360 for less than a Wii (the former's low-end model can be had for $199 while the latter is still $250), and considering the fact that the Xbox 360 is technically superior to the Wii in terms of graphics power, I'd be pretty reticent about entering Nintendo's shares unless I saw a very significant pullback in price.

Nintendo is still going to make a lot of money (remember, it has the extremely popular DS hand-held powering it as well as the Wii), and Microsoft and Sony (NYSE: SNE) still have reason to fear the video-game icon. But if growth in the Wii slows, and if, heaven forbid, Nintendo needs to make a price cut of its own, then the stock could indeed reflect a more pessimistic outlook. It's a risk that needs to be carefully evaluated, since price elasticity may come into play here with a vengeance, especially during a softening economy. Like I say, I'd be uncomfortable considering Nintendo these days unless the shares get a price cut of their own.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 10:34 AM

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