Do you own Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) in your portfolio? If you do, then watch out. According to Engadget, the latest Xbox 360 price cut from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has been very successful, and it may wreak havoc on your position.
Engadget says that the sales data show a 100% increase in Xbox 360 sales during the first weekend of the new pricing structure. And this is important for those trading Nintendo. It's of course impossible to predict short-term stock movements, but I can tell you that I wouldn't be a buyer of the ADR's right now, not at these levels. As many have been saying, the game has changed now. It could be that this initial sales spike for the Xbox 360 won't last, and that the Nintendo Wii will still be king of the holidays. There's no question demand will remain strong for the Wii. It is a good system, after all, and it has a lot of brand momentum behind it. But now that consumers can get an Xbox 360 for less than a Wii (the former's low-end model can be had for $199 while the latter is still $250), and considering the fact that the Xbox 360 is technically superior to the Wii in terms of graphics power, I'd be pretty reticent about entering Nintendo's shares unless I saw a very significant pullback in price.
Nintendo is still going to make a lot of money (remember, it has the extremely popular DS hand-held powering it as well as the Wii), and Microsoft and Sony (NYSE: SNE) still have reason to fear the video-game icon. But if growth in the Wii slows, and if, heaven forbid, Nintendo needs to make a price cut of its own, then the stock could indeed reflect a more pessimistic outlook. It's a risk that needs to be carefully evaluated, since price elasticity may come into play here with a vengeance, especially during a softening economy. Like I say, I'd be uncomfortable considering Nintendo these days unless the shares get a price cut of their own.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-12-2008 @ 7:39AM
Colin said...
I have a small position in NTDOY but I'm not worried. I'm invested for the long term and I'm confident in Nintendo's ability to churn out another hit console after Wii.
9-12-2008 @ 8:20AM
ekrabs said...
I agree with this cautionary note, but I remember reading somewhere once that Nintendo still makes a profit for every unit of Wii sold, whereas both the 360 and the PS3 console are sold at a severe loss. In the classic razor/razor blade model, they had hoped that games would offset that cost.
Yes, I believe Microsoft can absorb the cost difference, but does that increase in cost translate to a better stock buy?
9-12-2008 @ 10:29AM
Mike O said...
I'd hold Nintendo until after the holiday sales data comes in. As ekrabs said, Microsoft has been selling consoles at a loss and only recently managed to turn a profit, though they are still hurting from the high defect rate of past Xbox360 consoles.
Nintendo turned a profit on the hardware from day one and is set to turn higher profits as the hardware gets cheaper to manufacture.
Nintendo also appeals to a different segment of the market than Microsoft and Sony. Hard core gamers will own two or even all three systems. The older and younger generations are firmly in Nintendo's back pocket and I don't see an Xbox360 price drop changing that.
Expect a big holiday season for all three console manufacturers. The big difference could be sales of the games, rather than the consoles.