Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) stock has lost 45% of its value in early trading, it has rebounded somewhat since and was only down 30% by midday trading. It fell 7% on Wednesday and 45% on Tuesday. Now the price of insuring its bonds is hitting new records. Can it last the week?
Bloomberg News reports that the price of Lehman's so-called credit-default swaps (CDSs) -- a kind of bondholder insurance -- is hitting record levels and requiring an unusual upfront payment. "Contracts protecting $10 million of Lehman debt for one year cost 11 percent upfront and 5 percent a year, according to CMA prices at 8:50 a.m. in New York. That's up from 1,200 basis points at the close of trading yesterday. The price means it costs $1.1 million in advance and $500,000 a year to protect the bonds compared with $1.2 million a year yesterday," according to Bloomberg.
It's worth understanding CDSs because their rates are more sensitive indicators of a troubled company's financial health than its financial statements, which are often full of unstated assumptions designed to make things look better than they really are. "Credit-default swaps, contracts conceived to protect bondholders against default, pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a country or company fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A rise indicates deterioration in the perception of credit quality; a decline, the opposite," writes Bloomberg.
These higher rates suggest that Lehman may have trouble getting short-term debt. Unlike Bear Stearns, it has access to the Fed's discount window. The question is whether the Fed will lend it enough to keep going.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned










