Historically, the vote for U.S. president hinges on three factors: a voter's party identification, the voter's attitude toward the candidate, and 'a most important issue.' (See: Campbell, Converse, Miller and Stokes, The American Voter.)Some voters cite two or three most important issues, but most have only one. One such issue that has repeatedly shown up in survey research dating back to 1952 as a factor affecting vote is the U.S. economy.
In general the rule is that if the U.S. economy is doing well, the party in power -- the party occupying the White House -- is re-elected.
If the economy is doing poorly, the party in power is voted out of office. In other words, if the economy isn't doing well, the American people "throw the rascals out," as my Ph.D. advisor, Professor Sarah Morehouse, UConn professor emeritus of political science, used to say.
The U.S. President as manager of the economy
It matters not if the president caused the damage. On many occasions the president rarely is entirely at fault, but it doesn't matter -- the president is still held accountable for the economy's performance. If the economy's strong, the president gets the credit; if the economy's in poor condition -- the blame.
For example, in 1980, then challenger Ronald Reagan, the Republican nominee, used this issue to his advantage against incumbent President Jimmy Carter, a Democrat, when he asked that famous and vote-attracting question at campaign stop after campaign stop:
Are you better off today than you were four years ago?
In 1980 the economy was in horrible shape. The result: challenger Republican Reagan defeated incumbent Democrat Carter in a landslide!
Another example: In 1992, challenger Bill Clinton, the Democratic nominee, used the same tactic to build a solid lead over incumbent President George H.W. Bush, a Republican, when Clinton stuck to an economic issues-based campaign. And nearly everyone remembers then Clinton campaign manager James Carville's telling line to keep the campaign on-message regarding what the election was all about: It's the economy, stupid.
To be sure, national security has also shown up routinely in issues voters' cited as most important in U.S. Presidential elections, particularly if the nation was at war. Social / cultural issues also appear frequently.
But no issue drives votes like the economy. In voting, as in so many other aspects of life, "economics structures the debate."
Editor Joseph Lazzaro is writing a book on the U.S. Presidency and the U.S. economy.
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