A bit of foreshadowing: UBS may have $5 billion in write-downs


Now that a mass of mortgage-related write-downs has swamped major financial companies, Wall Street has turned its attention to the second half of the year to see whether the beatings will continue. Early indications are that they will. Both Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) have said they will take reserves for several billion in their third quarters.

The bank that has been hit hardest by the crisis may not even be American. Reuters reports that UBS (NYSE: UBS) will have to write down another $5 billion on its risky investments in the second half of the year according to the Sonntags Zeitung newspaper.

The IMF has predicted that total write-downs driven by the mortgage crisis will hit over $1 trillion. Only about half of that has hit the markets so far. If banks face a tremendous increase in reported losses, most will have to raise money which will cause another round of dilution.

Bank and brokerage stock prices are going much lower.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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