The global financial system teeters on the edge of a collapse the likes of which has not been seen in at least 80 years. Thanks to the complexity of the financial instruments involved, the amount of leverage used to trade them, and the global interconnectedness of it all, it could be the worst collapse in financial history. The key question at this point is "What will make it stop?"
The latest news features a bankruptcy of a 158-year-old financial firm, the acquisition of one of the most storied names on Wall Street, and a major restructuring of one of the world's largest insurance companies. Here are the details:
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As I predicted this morning, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) is expected to file for bankruptcy tonight, according to Bloomberg News. That outcome was far from certain this morning as Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) was expected to bid for the "good" part of Lehman. But the US declined to backstop Lehman's bad part so Bank of America withdrew its offer and now Lehman shareholders will be wiped out. It is not clear how severely the Lehman bankruptcy will hurt global markets.
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The good news, as I posted this afternoon, is that Bank of America has agreed to pay $29 a share for Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) according to the Wall Street Journal. This is great news because it gives Merrill shareholders a $12 a share premium and takes out what would have been the next firm to fail. I am not sure how Bank of America will make the deal pay off, but now attention focuses on the next domino to fall.
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American International Group (NYSE: AIG) -- seeking "to stave off credit downgrades -- may seek help from the Federal Reserve. [AIG has] turned down a private-equity investment because it would have meant turning over control of the company" according to Bloomberg News. AIG plans to announce a major restructuring Monday -- CNNMoney reports AIG will "dispose of its aircraft-leasing arm, International Lease Finance Corp., which has a fleet of more than 900 airplanes valued at more than $50 billion." The New York Times estimates it needs $18 billion to stave off credit downgrades.
Are Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) immune from this collapse? If they all file for bankruptcy or get bought by commercial banks, has the US just lost the one industry which had in the past attracted the nation's top talent and enriched it beyond measure? Or will the poobas of private equity fund the start up of new investment banks -- unencumbered by trillions of worthless mortgage-backed securities -- to pick up the slack?
Meanwhile, how will global markets react to the shockingly rapid implosion of the US banking industry? Is there anything that can be done to stop the slide? If it were not so serious, I would say this feels like the end of an episode of Batman. Unfortunately, it's all too real and it's going to spread the pain around for some time to come. Meanwhile futures point to a bloodbath in global markets over the next 24 hours.
I don't know what will stop the bleeding.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns AIG shares and has no financial interest in the other securities mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-15-2008 @ 5:25AM
Terrence said...
China is vulnerable to the consumer spending contraction underway in the U.S. and Europe:
http://www.globalsecuritieswatch.org/PRC_Sovereign_Risk_Review.pdf
9-15-2008 @ 5:39AM
al coholic said...
Dow 8000, here we come!
Thank God the Government didn't allow Bank of America to cherry pick the good from Lehman while leaving the garbage for the taxpayers.
These are incredible times that people will be reading about for centuries. I just hope we can avoid total collapse.
9-15-2008 @ 7:00AM
Dan Barnett said...
But what possessed BAC to pay a 50% premium for Merrill?
9-15-2008 @ 7:23AM
Bill said...
"..has the US just lost the one industry which had in the past attracted the nation's top talent and enriched it beyond measure?"
Perhaps this was a poor allocation of talent, since the ones enriched were themselves and the mechanism was a 'house of cards' which is now collapsing.
Prior denizens of Wall Street built real companies like railroads or steel producers - something that the USA needs to do again.
9-15-2008 @ 8:30AM
shiv bhargava said...
it is the end (hopefully) of the 'over-smart', over-enthusiastic and the snobbish 'i-banks' or atleast as we knew them for the past so many years.
Bill made a brilliant point that the wall street and indeed other parts of the financial markets should focus more on creating business rather than trying to create value out of thin air through financial jugglary. However, this is really difficult and the lure of tilting the other way is too much for most to handle - its up or out anyways. i know this being a banker myself!!
9-15-2008 @ 10:44AM
Vinny said...
Then McBush, who has been in Washington and the Republican party for over 26 years suddenly has the answer? What a crock of shit. Last time I looked there are only two major political parties. One is REPUBLICAN under which the fiasco we are experiencing is happening and under McBush's hero the MORON BUSH and now this McBush clone and total a** h*** want's us to vote for more of the same crap? He can't ride his trusty steed 'Hero' anymore as that old horse has DIED. Rewpublicans? Brainless a** h**** all. No exceptions.
9-15-2008 @ 11:58AM
JJ said...
The End is near ,Like in 1929 Everything is alright.Way to Go ....
9-15-2008 @ 12:04PM
dennis said...
it is now quite obvious the money industry canot police themselves. government must now take control so the consumer is not taken advantage of any more. alo the high comissions and salaries paid to these people must be approved by stock holders and the government. any company that is public mut have a salary cap and or commision capso this dosent happen again. as atax payer and small buisness i am sick and tired of these people stealing every ones money then going home to enjoy it while we all suffer....
9-15-2008 @ 1:04PM
Stan said...
Vinny!!! You might want to look in the mirror when it comes to all that name calling. This not Republican or Democrat!! It is both and it is much bigger than party politics. It is about being a patriot politically and economically by Government, Business and we the people. Where is the patriotism? I have not seen political or economic patriotism in this country since JFK and Henry Ford. So don't just blame McBush. McClinton and all of their predecessors are all guilty of not giving a damn about we the people while trying to appease the globe. The rest of the world has been running this country for years and years. And most of the world does not have the freedom we have. They are Socialist, Communist and Marxist and their people suffer because of it. We are seeing the results.
9-15-2008 @ 1:37PM
Tom said...
This debacle IS the fault of the repubs, going back to ronnie raygun. Regulations, we don't need no stinkin' regulations, the mantra of repubs, is coming back to bite us all. And the few who are finally seeing the parallels with the 1920's (I saw this meltdown coming in 2005) We created those oversight agencies and stacks of rules in 1933-36 precisely because of the behavior of the last 30 years that has led us to this point. Wall Street can't be trusted with a bucket of warm spit, much less the economy of the US
9-15-2008 @ 2:57PM
Dennis A. Chabot said...
The Bush administration destroys the economy. The man can get us into a war that was totally useless based on lies. But hey he is so busy with that war he forgets that he has his own country to take care of. No domestic policy whatsoever other than make the rich richer and sc rew the middle class. Sad day for a fellow who has set aside a few dollars in a 401K that is losing its total worth. But there are enough crooks and idiots in this country to elect a Bush 3rd term Mr. McCain he may be a hero but he certainly doesn't give a damn for the middle class. can you trust a man who leaves the wife that srood by him for a pretty blond with a big sack full of money. Think about it!!!!
9-15-2008 @ 3:10PM
Michael Lynch said...
History will undoubtedly prove that minority-driven loose lending practices allowing unqualified homebuyers purchasing "The American Dream" with no money down or job verification precipitated this financial meltdown. When unrealistic dreams become a reality, it might be called a "Wet Dream". Guess what? Da repo man, he be a commin! The nippleheads and their coharts that initiated this lending policy should be on the inside looking out!
9-15-2008 @ 3:11PM
marea said...
It is about time the USA started looking after its internal affairs and poverty instead of being the cowboys and manipulators of the third world economies - it has become the laughing stock of the world - especially when lowly Indians and Brazillians advise the great USA to apply the regulations of the International Monetary Fund be it far to late to do so.
9-15-2008 @ 3:52PM
Craig said...
this is not the end.. its only the beginning.. big banks have been ripping off consumers for years.
and now were all going to pay for it.... just like the vacant homes they lent 125% of the value to..
what are my grandkids going to look forward to besides paying this back, not to mention Bush's deficit.. he's runied this country ! period...
9-15-2008 @ 5:37PM
cliff Lagor said...
You can't blame one man.The whole of congress has done nthing to help the middle man If congress doesn't like what the President is doing all they have to do is over ride it. But congress just does what is best for them and to hell with the people. I also think that the terms for congressmen shoulkd be limited to 2 terms no more. The ones that sre in there al long time get to powefull and have a great backing. And another thing to elininate al lobbyist then i think that we can get our country back on track and focus our time on helping our own people nad forget the other countries till we have ours going in the right direction.
9-15-2008 @ 5:55PM
steve said...
I am not one who claims to know alot about stocks & money ,But i have tried to understand why and what is going on in this nation.and the only thing that make since is this , America has forsaken its founding of IN GOD WE TRUST,ONE NATION UNDER GOD, America is a falling nation ,weve let prayer be taken from schools, ten commandments out of gov buildings our blessing has become a curse DEUTERONOMY 28: 15 However if you donot obey the lord your god ,and do not follow all his commands and decrees i am giving you today ,All these curses will come upon you you will be cursed in the city and cursed in the country America must REPENT, Jesus said blessed is the man who does not fall away on account of me , his word is not to cause offence, but to bring men to salvation i dont want to make anyone mad or angry .but could it be that our blessing has turned in to a curse ?
9-15-2008 @ 7:02PM
Greg Tucker said...
Please my friends out in the hinterlands, isn't it a time for a change in administrations? I did quite well with my 401K during the Clinton Administration and now my 401K is taking a nose dive. I have little time for recovery as I am only two months away from retirement. I am really worried as to how I am going to survive. I am taking a chance on Obama and a new Administration to turn the tide. How about you?
Greg in California
9-16-2008 @ 8:12AM
michael said...
Well said,Bill..self promoting and serving, a house built on sand..re-invest in Americam not just ourselves. Ask not what your country can do for you,but what you can do for your country" JFK
9-16-2008 @ 8:20PM
EUGENE TANO said...
WELL AFTER 95 YEARS OF PRINTING COUNTERFEIT MONEY THE HAMMER IS FINALLY COMING DOW N ON THE FEDS HEAD. A WORLD TAKEOVER HAS BEEN PLANNED FOR A VERY LONG TIME BUT THINGS HAVE FALLEN APART TOO SOON / THERE IS ABOUT 100 TIMES IN PHONEY MONEY IN CIRCULATION THAN THERE IS ASSETS IN THE WORLD. WHEN THE CURTAIN COMES DOWN YOUR ASSETS WILL BE WORTH 1 PENNEY ON THE NOTES OUT. SO GET READY FOR ALL NEW MONEY SOON AND A NEW GAME OF CHAIRS.. THEY GOT YOU NOW WILL YOU FALL FOR IT AGAIN ???ENJOY YOUR LAST GOOD DAYS, GENE
9-17-2008 @ 4:46PM
Uhohchongo said...
"..has the US just lost the one industry which had in the past attracted the nation's top talent and enriched it beyond measure?"
Perhaps this was a poor allocation of talent, since the ones enriched were themselves and the mechanism was a 'house of cards' which is now collapsing.
Prior denizens of Wall Street built real companies like railroads or steel producers - something that the USA needs to do again.
I totally agree Bill.
The backbone of our current economy is: Networking.
Not good.
I think I'll start clearing out my bank accounts. LOL