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Lehman bankrupt, Merrill bought, AIG collapsing: Where does it all end?

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The global financial system teeters on the edge of a collapse the likes of which has not been seen in at least 80 years. Thanks to the complexity of the financial instruments involved, the amount of leverage used to trade them, and the global interconnectedness of it all, it could be the worst collapse in financial history. The key question at this point is "What will make it stop?"

The latest news features a bankruptcy of a 158-year-old financial firm, the acquisition of one of the most storied names on Wall Street, and a major restructuring of one of the world's largest insurance companies. Here are the details:

  • As I predicted this morning, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) is expected to file for bankruptcy tonight, according to Bloomberg News. That outcome was far from certain this morning as Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) was expected to bid for the "good" part of Lehman. But the US declined to backstop Lehman's bad part so Bank of America withdrew its offer and now Lehman shareholders will be wiped out. It is not clear how severely the Lehman bankruptcy will hurt global markets.
  • The good news, as I posted this afternoon, is that Bank of America has agreed to pay $29 a share for Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) according to the Wall Street Journal. This is great news because it gives Merrill shareholders a $12 a share premium and takes out what would have been the next firm to fail. I am not sure how Bank of America will make the deal pay off, but now attention focuses on the next domino to fall.
  • American International Group (NYSE: AIG) -- seeking "to stave off credit downgrades -- may seek help from the Federal Reserve. [AIG has] turned down a private-equity investment because it would have meant turning over control of the company" according to Bloomberg News. AIG plans to announce a major restructuring Monday -- CNNMoney reports AIG will "dispose of its aircraft-leasing arm, International Lease Finance Corp., which has a fleet of more than 900 airplanes valued at more than $50 billion." The New York Times estimates it needs $18 billion to stave off credit downgrades.

Are Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) immune from this collapse? If they all file for bankruptcy or get bought by commercial banks, has the US just lost the one industry which had in the past attracted the nation's top talent and enriched it beyond measure? Or will the poobas of private equity fund the start up of new investment banks -- unencumbered by trillions of worthless mortgage-backed securities -- to pick up the slack?

Meanwhile, how will global markets react to the shockingly rapid implosion of the US banking industry? Is there anything that can be done to stop the slide? If it were not so serious, I would say this feels like the end of an episode of Batman. Unfortunately, it's all too real and it's going to spread the pain around for some time to come. Meanwhile futures point to a bloodbath in global markets over the next 24 hours.

I don't know what will stop the bleeding.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns AIG shares and has no financial interest in the other securities mentioned.

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Last updated: July 05, 2009: 01:00 PM

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