AOL Money & Finance

100 Year Crash: 110 banks to fail, regulators flail, $70 billion bailout fund set

More

In the midst of what historians will likely view as the worst financial collapse in a century, it is hard to know what will happen next or what to do about it. This weekend Hank Paulson drew a line in the sand -- refusing to put the Treasury in the middle of the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) bailout which caused Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and other bidders to pass -- and now Lehman and Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) are gone. (Although Bank of America's $50 billion Merrill buy could be a Pyhrric victory -- its stock is down 13% in pre-market). But now the Fed is, in effect, stepping over Paulson's line in the sand by accepting that same collection of junk that caused Lehman to fail as collateral from Wall Street in exchange for Fed money.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Fed is expanding its lending facility for Wall Street banks. In addition to getting money from the Fed after posting collateral such as bonds, mortgage-backed securities (MBSs), collateralized debt obligations (CDSs) -- the banks can now get money for posting equities as collateral. To translate into English, after permitting two of Wall Street's biggest names to go under, the government is realizing that it may have made a mistake. It is now back in the business of bailing out Wall Street.

But this means that the Fed is becoming Wall Street's garbage collector. So when it takes MBSs, CDSs, and stocks as collateral, it is risking taxpayer money because in all likelihood, this collateral could be worth much less than its face value. But wait, there's more. The Fed is being joined by a $70 billion lending facility created by some banks to help bailout their brethren. And one analyst expects 110 banks (out of 8,400) to fail by July -- that would account for $850 billion in assets out of $13 trillion total.

After saying it would not get involved in any more bailouts, the government is back as bailer-out-of-last-resort. It is painfully obvious that the government has no idea what to do. Paulson's false bravado -- with his comments about bazookas in his pocket, subprime being contained, and this weekend's line in the sand -- is just so much wasted air.

And, regrettably the lessons of history are no match now for a deeply flawed global financial architecture. As I posted last night, there are three big flaws: trillions worth of complex securities that nobody wants to own, too little capital on the books of the financial firms that own the securities, and the tight global interconnections of those firms.

What to do? If you need your money in the next 10 years, take it out of everything else and deposit it in sub-$100,000 accounts with profitable banks.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+17.4610,023.42
NASDAQ+7.122,112.44
S&P 500+2.671,069.30

Last updated: November 09, 2009: 12:42 AM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

DailyFinance Headlines

Latest from BloggingBuyouts

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

    BioHealth Investor Headlines

    WalletPop Headlines

    My Portfolios

    Track your stocks here!

    Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

    BloggingStocks Partners

    More from AOL Money & Finance

    WalletPop Headlines