In the midst of what historians will likely view as the worst financial collapse in a century, it is hard to know what will happen next or what to do about it. This weekend Hank Paulson drew a line in the sand -- refusing to put the Treasury in the middle of the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) bailout which caused Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and other bidders to pass -- and now Lehman and Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) are gone. (Although Bank of America's $50 billion Merrill buy could be a Pyhrric victory -- its stock is down 13% in pre-market). But now the Fed is, in effect, stepping over Paulson's line in the sand by accepting that same collection of junk that caused Lehman to fail as collateral from Wall Street in exchange for Fed money.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the Fed is expanding its lending facility for Wall Street banks. In addition to getting money from the Fed after posting collateral such as bonds, mortgage-backed securities (MBSs), collateralized debt obligations (CDSs) -- the banks can now get money for posting equities as collateral. To translate into English, after permitting two of Wall Street's biggest names to go under, the government is realizing that it may have made a mistake. It is now back in the business of bailing out Wall Street.
But this means that the Fed is becoming Wall Street's garbage collector. So when it takes MBSs, CDSs, and stocks as collateral, it is risking taxpayer money because in all likelihood, this collateral could be worth much less than its face value. But wait, there's more. The Fed is being joined by a $70 billion lending facility created by some banks to help bailout their brethren. And one analyst expects 110 banks (out of 8,400) to fail by July -- that would account for $850 billion in assets out of $13 trillion total.
After saying it would not get involved in any more bailouts, the government is back as bailer-out-of-last-resort. It is painfully obvious that the government has no idea what to do. Paulson's false bravado -- with his comments about bazookas in his pocket, subprime being contained, and this weekend's line in the sand -- is just so much wasted air.
And, regrettably the lessons of history are no match now for a deeply flawed global financial architecture. As I posted last night, there are three big flaws: trillions worth of complex securities that nobody wants to own, too little capital on the books of the financial firms that own the securities, and the tight global interconnections of those firms.
What to do? If you need your money in the next 10 years, take it out of everything else and deposit it in sub-$100,000 accounts with profitable banks.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
9-15-2008 @ 11:05AM
Philip James said...
This is the Bush Legacy. He sure has made a mess of the USA!!!
9-15-2008 @ 11:25AM
john kraepel said...
will the commerica an other banks in detroit mi fail
9-15-2008 @ 12:34PM
Grampy Geo said...
It's not just the Bush legacy, it's the culmination of unbridaled greed by banks who wanted to make big bucks via cheap mortgages, but who were blinded by fast profits to the possibility they were making colossal errors in judgement. Let them fail! Those who emerge will do so wiser and less greedy
9-15-2008 @ 2:08PM
GEORGE said...
ITS NOT BUSH! ITS GREED AND ITS BEEN COMING FOR A LONG TIME.
9-15-2008 @ 2:32PM
T Heck said...
You can blame it on Bush all you want, but the financial disaster we're dealing with is NOT created in just 8 years....I don't particularly like GB, but I don't blame him solely for this mess.
9-15-2008 @ 3:49PM
Jim Bridges said...
All of the Reagan/Bush era deregulation of the banks, insurance, energy, securities, investments, etc is comparable to opening all of the cage doors at the zoo and expecting the animals to play nice and dance and sing. We are a nation of idiots for following this bad advice. McCain still has one of the main architects of this bs on his staff. Gramm is no friend of the little man. McCain is still insisting that the economy is basically still very strong....YGBSM!
9-15-2008 @ 3:35PM
John said...
Would any of the CEOs of these failing financials cut a break to some poor SOB who is losing his home to foreclosure? NO, he's too busy figuring out how he can make more money than he could spend in several lifetimes. Running businesses into the ground then expecting a golden parachute to boot. The courtrooms should be filled with these guys and their attorneys defending against crimes against the public. Follow the remaining money if you think GW and his cronies leading the corruption are not at fault.
9-15-2008 @ 4:00PM
Charlie said...
There is no one person to blame for this even if some played larger roles than others. The problems still to come stem from the lack of steady collateral (housing values, industrial land and equipment etc..) in the market to guarantee loans, a dollar which should be increasing in value but has remained weak and an out of control inflation rate due to oil prices. Until we start regulating our global economy as one unit, instead of many countries, there will always be two sides. The two sides are the “losers” who set regulations on more industries like the US and the “winners” who benefit from others doing all the work like China and Saudi Arabia. It doesn’t always pay to be the first or best at something. A great example would be the creation of unions in the US to improve working conditions. Other countries receive the benefit of the unions in the US without actually having any basically taking our play book without putting in any work and don’t get me started on the industrial revolution and who really is benefiting from its growth.
9-15-2008 @ 4:22PM
shawn said...
Obama, McCain, whatever. Ron Paul is looking better and better to me. I'm taking my money out of the bank now and burying it in the backyard.
9-15-2008 @ 6:29PM
The Norm said...
Hey Charlie - just finished reading your thoughts and I think you need to ease off the sugar intake there. Re-read your comments and you will see what I'm talking about. This economic problem is going down hill. The "experts" say that the market is just in a self stabilizing cycle. The Macro-Indicators show these problems are a mere fraction of the total economy and it will settle down soon. It was forecasted in the early 90s that a mortage crises would occur around the year 2000. That "Loan from China" keeps coming up and I'm willing to bet that we (The USA) "Floated a Note" with China by way of the World Bank and their calling in their markers now.
Nuff-Said
9-15-2008 @ 5:56PM
Amjeshma said...
Problem:
1. The stock market has too much control and the economy is directly affected.
2. Foreclosures are hitting middle class not just the poor or people that could not afford it.
3. End ARM and ballon payments completely. If you can afford to pay the current payment, you can't afford it.
4. CEO's are over paid, along with the board.
5. Quit giving foreign countries money, until we can stabilize ours.
6. All illegal aliens have 90 days to register as citizens or face interrigations by local, state and federal authorities at a drop of a hat.
7. Fire everyone in congress.
8. Cap the amount of credit a credit card company can give.
9. Government, Local and State spending to cease until independent auditors can come in and audit.
10. Close the loop holes.
11. Close Nafta
12. No more wire transfers to foreign countries by western union.
9-15-2008 @ 6:52PM
lenny said...
Another long list of screw ups from the bush years and you want to elect John macain. It is time to move to mars
9-15-2008 @ 7:45PM
notabushwhacker said...
For you retarded individuals that want to put this failure on Bush, try your democratic party led bunch of infidels who are rating a 9% approval. That bunch of loose lipped light in the loafers were not at the controls when the ship was going down. When will you dorks sign up to some responsibility for your lack of ability? Does Bush introduce legislation that regulates the boys on the block? Nope, stupid, it is Nancy and the blind mice. Give it up and then you want to put a prayer rug in the White House so that we can all learn Spanish while his family learn proper English and an appreciation for what the military has done for this country? The smut has not even been to day care, let alone a day in boot camp and he wants to be president? At least your boy Clinton was a draft dodger, a pussy at that, too and above the law when he was molesting the young lady in the White House that belongs to the people of this country not some Arkansas toothless dimwit.
9-15-2008 @ 7:47PM
John said...
One of the above posters had it right. Banks could re negotiate the loans with many of the customers who are in default. They could forgive the late fees mark the accounts as current and negotiate a lower interest rate or a longer payoff period. But they do not have to lose their ass , or put their banks in bankruptcy just out of foolish pride.
9-16-2008 @ 7:31AM
bigone said...
ok, it is plain to see that the 2nd biggest
TRAgedy in this country was the 7 days
following the pinyadda. All of YOU know
who took what.
Lets back track the facts and take it back.
We will find the facts, and YOu!
Pettition Time?
9-16-2008 @ 9:22AM
maxlxii said...
This is a congressional problem, I agree with an earlier comment suggesting we fire everyone I congress. While appearing to be a gross generalization, make the person in congress prove they are a "keeper" or get them out. Congress can start with reforming their own "health care" to that like the average working persons' and then and only then will they be willing to fix health care without ruining our medical care system
9-16-2008 @ 9:23AM
Eric Darling said...
For all of you Bush-lovers out there: You deserve 4 more years of this economic mess if you vote McSame in. For all of your ranting and raving about Clinton (best economic period in recent US history, NO deficits, ACTUAL surpluses, balanced budget, healthy economy, NO wars, cut government spending, etc, etc...) all you right wing zealots can do is focus on a little hanky-panky (which, if his WIFE can forgive him, maybe we could too) that you probably don't get anymore yourselves because you are too wound up losing money in a stock market that is increasing being manipulated by Bush cronies let loose by regulators in bed with BIG MONEY while they rape and pillage and plunder the American public all the while the Fed just prints up more and more increasingly worthless dollars which you hope will lead to a cashless society where Big Brother will reign supreme, all part of the Right-Wing Conspiracy to run this country into the ground and into the hands of the powers that be. How's that for a rant, you Right-Wing Ignoramus Greedy Power Mongers?
9-16-2008 @ 9:41AM
Linda said...
the economy maybe a little shaken at the moment but it is not crashing.. we are not going to jump from 10 story buildings and kill ourselves. Obama would love for people to think we are in such bad times only for a vote... He will use every method known to man to get into office...
We have gotten out of bigger messes than this before and we will get out of this one... if the dem congress we have would not keep stirring the pot
9-17-2008 @ 5:31PM
Debra said...
WHAT THE HELL , JUST PRINT ENOUGH MONEY TO GET US OUT OF THIS MESS.
SO SIMPLE...
9-16-2008 @ 12:19PM
JEFF said...
VOTE for NONE of THE ABOVE in NOVEMBER.
Why was the Regulatory commission made in the 1930's? The U.S Government went bankrupt! But who is our creditor? Look that one up. bet you wont find a answer. This financial situation started a long, long time ago.