Lurking in the background of this weekend's collapse of two of Wall Street's biggest names, is a $62 trillion segment of the $450 trillion market for derivatives that grew huge thanks to John McCain's chief economic advisor, Phil "Americans are Whiners" Gramm. That's because in December 2000, Gramm, while a U.S. Senator, snuck in a 262-page amendment to a government re-authorization bill that created what is now the $62 trillion market for credit default swaps (CDSs).
I realize it is painful to read about yet another Wall Street acronym, but this is important because it will help you understand why the global financial markets are collapsing. And it will give you information to consider when you vote in November. CDSs are like insurance policies for bondholders. In exchange for a premium, the bondholders get insurance in case the bondholder can't pay. As I posted, in the case of the $1.4 trillion worth of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) bonds, the government's nationalization last Sunday triggered the CDSs on those bonds. The people who received the CDS premiums are now obligated to deliver those bonds to the ones who paid the premiums.
Gramm's 262-page amendment, dubbed "The Commodity Futures Modernization Act," according to Texas Observer, freed financial institutions from oversight of their CDS transactions. "Prior to its passage, they say, banks underwrote mortgages and were responsible for the risks involved. Now, through the use of [CDSs]-which in theory insure the banks against bad debts-those risks are passed along to insurance companies and other investors," wrote Texas Observer.
How does this relate to Lehman's bankruptcy? "[CDSs] were a key factor in encouraging lenders to feel they could make loans without knowing the risks or whether the loan would be paid back. The Commodity Futures Modernization Act freed them of federal oversight," according to Texas Monthly. And it was due to these CDSs that Wall Street held an emergency session yesterday to try to minimize the damage of Lehman's CDSs and other derivatives. Unfortunately, this session did not produce much thanks to the built-in lack of knowledge of the risks in these transactions that Gramm's legislation ensured.
You are going to be reading more and more about CDSs over the months ahead -- it will become as familiar as the phrase subprime mortgage was in 2007. Unfortunately, there were "only" $1.3 trillion worth of subprime mortgages and the CDS market is 48 times bigger than that -- and more than four times bigger than U.S. GDP. And since nobody has ever had to deal with this volume of CDS unwindings, it is impossible to calculate how much they will cost.
One thing is clear. If you think America is a nation of whiners and this is a mental recession, I strongly urge you to vote for McCain. But if you take a look at how much you are paying at the gas pump, how much of your retirement will be wiped out in the months ahead, and how you will pay all those bills as the unemployment rate climbs higher, it might be worth considering whether you can afford to elect a man who relies on Phil Gramm for economic advice.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-15-2008 @ 10:18AM
WC said...
This is not helpful news, its a anti McCain
ad. Shame on you. Tell us about Charlie Rangel's part in all this.
9-15-2008 @ 10:48AM
Irene said...
This article is not anti McCain, it is the truth. Gramm was the architect for de-regulation of the energy industry and financial markets. He is responsible for undoing the safeguards Congress put in place after the Great Depression to curve Bank speculation. The results of de-regulation of these industries have been devastating to our economy. Adding to our problems was the complete lack of oversight by the Bush administration and the Republican led Congress. By the time Democrats took control of Congress the cat was already out of the bag........
9-15-2008 @ 10:49AM
Dan Barnett said...
Okay Pete,
I'm trying to understand here, the CDS act as insurance guaranteeing the payment of various bonds. Lehman, I assume, has triggered & you say Freddie & Fanny triggered last week. So the holders of the CDS now have to cough up & deliver on the insurance & redeem the bonds? But isn't that the whole point of insurance?
Thanks to "Nation of Whiners" Graham, the whole area is unregulated. So the holders of the CDS have to give over. They can't cover the entire cost due. They then go bust. & so they, & the original bondholders get what they can out of the assets & are SOL for the rest?
Do I understand it?
So why is everything tanking today?
9-15-2008 @ 10:50AM
Jeff said...
This above comment isn't helpful news, it's a pro republican response. Shame on you. Tell us something that doesn't directly conflict with its own premise.
9-15-2008 @ 11:14AM
joe said...
u r an idiot
9-15-2008 @ 11:40AM
michael caruso said...
Ive been writing for awhile tying Mr mcbushes economical adviser too many of the deregualtion thru lobbying.Phil Graham is the main player in many changes to the finacial oversitesthat were in place.Lets us not forget the first banking blunder The Keating Five google that and see who some of the thieves who wre involved in that one.The Republicants have robbed and twisted everthing they could.As they followed the Bush doctrine"2 I lie and you sware too it.
9-15-2008 @ 12:52PM
FrankieZ said...
You forgot to mention Phil Gramm's wife -- formerly a proud member of the Enron board of directors!!
9-15-2008 @ 1:32PM
FrankieZ said...
We also should not forget that even though the CDS act like insurance products, the word "insurance" never appears anywhere. Insurance is regulated by state governments. Like kids home alone, CDS are always free from government regulation.
9-15-2008 @ 3:26PM
Rex said...
Peter Cohan is a paid shill for the Obama campaign, no doubt. A quick check of his voting records could make clear that he is a long time Democrat activist. Also, if I am not mistaken, he's been a heavy financial contributor to Obama.
9-15-2008 @ 5:28PM
Chris K. said...
One thing Cohan didn't mention is the $62 trillion in outstanding CDS is the notional amount (and some estimates place it in the $45-50 trillion range). Because CDS positions are harder to zero out than Futures, many of them get resold, and hence double counted. The estimated underlying bond value is estimated to be around $3 trillion, if you could net everything out like you can in the Futures market.
Somewhat related, given Cohan's political agenda here, readers might be interested in learning more about Fannie Mae's and Freddi Mack's investments in politicians:
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/09/update-fannie-mae-and-freddie.html