This is my 800th post, so I thought I would have to mark the occasion with something very serious, and R. P. Overmyer once again supplied the kindling for my fire.
Many comments we receive ask why George W. Bush should be blamed for the dire state of the economy; that the President is just one more victim of circumstance. Others think the legislature should take the blame, or that it's a Democratic vs. Republican dilemma.
As I have tried to do in each of my posts that stray into politics, I will try my best to focus on the financial issues. If anyone cares, I tend to vote independent of party affiliation and tend to follow a moderate path. Interestingly each party tries to paint the other as more extremist in an attempt to get my vote.
The easy things first; the Republicans controlled the executive and legislative branches of government for the majority of GWB's term. It is true that the Democrats were less than cooperative these last 20 months and all too eager to watch Bush boil in his own stew, but for half that time everyone has been cooperating to make sure the financial markets do not collapse. All the blame should not fall on Bush or the Republicans, but I think it is not a hard case to make that the leadership and opportunity was theirs this go round and they screwed up -- he screwed up!
After that I think Bush sat back and watched. He is still only watching. He has had little to say about the crushing financial markets or crushed housing market or anything else. If he has done anything more I would love to hear about it. He has left the mess to others hopefully wiser than he, and in hindsight, that seems to be just about everyone, sort of...
Two clear results of the tax breaks and little economic policy have been record deficits and extreme leverage in the banking system. Bush is not to blame for the ratings agencies putting Triple A ratings on garbage, but he is to blame for creating an "anything goes" atmosphere in the financial markets that supported this behavior.
My pal Warren -- remember him? Chairman of Triple A rated (for real) Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A and BRK.B) long ago explicitly pointed out to the world that the derivative financial securities being created and promoted by the investment banks to the world were the true "weapons of mass destruction". He has written in his annual letters to shareholders and discussed in interviews and speeches for as long as I can remember the severely damaging impact of deficit spending and that the tax cuts implemented by the Bush administration would exacerbate the situation. Guess what: he was right on both counts.
Nobody has created as much wealth for himself or his fellow investors as Buffett and investors might once again take a look at Chasing Value: Considering Berkshire Hathaway... again. In any event, as one of his fans it always is bewildering to me that politicians and financial wizards alike seem to ignore his advice or heed his warnings.
If the presidency was a sports team, we would have bought out his contract a long time ago. Now we just wait for it to expire so that he can do the lecture circuit as a free agent.
When I look at the fact that we are in the poorest financial shape we have been in since the Great Depression, I can't help but think that all the deficit spending that we speak about burdening our grandchildren may have arrived early, maybe it really is pay as you go and now we are paying sooner than we thought.
By the way, it probably is no big shocker that Berkshire Hathaway is up this morning while the rest of the market is down. I can't wait for the Q3 report to find out what Buffett bought at fire sale prices.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of BRK.B.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-15-2008 @ 2:09PM
James said...
Don't worry, folks, at least the Republicans have been having a good time on your dime while they proposition guys in public restrooms.
9-15-2008 @ 2:05PM
e.krabs said...
I have a funny feeling GWB won't be making too many speeches in the circuit, seeing as his public standing is now "nukuler".
Ultimately, I think we all know why those involved didn't heed Warren Buffett's warning: It was just too profitable at the time. That and some in the industry had what we now know is a misplaced sense of security with CDOs.
In any case, congrats on your 800th post!
9-15-2008 @ 2:09PM
Janny said...
How many times does Bush have to screw us before we get it? Eight years of the Republicans and the taxpayers, not even asked for their permission, have been used to bail out these financial giants. Fannie Mae's CEO got a 22 million dollar bonus last year.
Cheney, Karl Rove, Wolfowitz and Bush are all crooks who made millions off the Iraq war in military equipment (Halliburton) and they lied to us about the motive for going Iraq.
The Russians's invaded Georgia to protect their oil lines.
Aphganistan is a strageic location, with the huge oil line that runs through that country.
It's all money people and McClone is right in the middle of it. He is too old! It will be business as usual if you morons elect him and we will circle the drain much faster.
Look around at your neighbors. Are they better off now than in 2000? We are all going down people, do you really want that? Is your religion more powerful than human kindness? Fanatics are not what we need at this time.
You relgious people hate Obama and don't tell me you aren't a bigot. What does it say in your bible that you pound so much?
Bush is the worst thing that ever happened to this country and I say bring the troops home. Israel can just protect themselves,
Get out and vote.
9-15-2008 @ 2:36PM
Billw said...
Bush does not control the economy. The Fed does. Mr. Greenspan was and is supposedly a hero because he lowered interest rates so that everyone could take out big mortgages to buy SUV's and speculate on real estate. So, now the roosters are coming home to roost. Artifically low interest rates by the Fed caused most of the problems we have today.
9-15-2008 @ 2:36PM
Randy said...
Reading a collection of Paul Krugman's columns ... rereading one from early 2000 regarding Bush's economic policy and the quote I find intriguing deals with a statement that people can see that even if they invest in the most conservative, inflation-adjusted government-backed bonds, they would earn more than they do with Social Security.
Mr. Krugman points out that Social Security invests in those same government-backed bonds.
9-15-2008 @ 2:55PM
Sheldon L said...
Billw,
Thanks for you comment. I did not say bush controled the economy and you make a good point about interest rates and the Fed. However, I did say Bush offered no leadership in this area, and did push for policies combined with poor oversight that allowed some of the transgressions.
9-15-2008 @ 8:03PM
winslow said...
Bush wanted to push the US into a new era. However, Bush did not have the intellectual capacity for leadership so he surrounded himself with individuals bent with an ideology; not with common sense or purpose of the US citizen.
There was an article written in 2000 (the author eludes me) that predicted the current results.
I blame the Democrats for not fighting this ideology of wrongness of American ideals.
I hope the new administration (God no, not McCain) will select intelligent,trustworthy, competent individuals to head all cabinet posts
and major departments.This alone would be a major change from the current administration.
9-15-2008 @ 4:02PM
Lee said...
FACTS: The United States of America is now $58 Trillion in debt (yes, with a T). $9.5 Trillion in past due debt and $48 Trillion in future debt obligations (ink has dried). $15 Trillion of this debt was created in just the last 7 1/2 years by one administration. The Bush administration. Bush family wealth is purported to be $1 Billion and growing.
9-15-2008 @ 4:18PM
jds said...
does anyone know the glass-steagle act of 1933-this was designed to prevent banks from using depositers money on risky investments-ie equities,unsecured loans etc. this was passed so as to prevent another great depression as occurred in 1929. It was BILL CLINTON and his finance advisors that repealed this act in 1999-with congresses help=== you can dislike pres Bush but lets be honest about the cause of the financial meltdown
9-15-2008 @ 4:29PM
krscmbs said...
i think all other countries should firegive our depts
9-15-2008 @ 4:50PM
Sheldon L said...
jds,
Great reminder of the opening of the door to disaster. But this has nothing to do with banks loaning 100% loan to value, and having no-down-payment loans, and the creation of CDO's which were fabricated by investment banks not thrifts.
This allowed banks to participate in previously prohibited types of business. It had nothing to do with LEH, MER, BSC and the like creating the derivative market as they did.
9-16-2008 @ 12:00AM
John said...
When Paulson calls at 3AM,
Will the phone ring in the Right House???
9-15-2008 @ 6:15PM
American Prophet said...
Since the beginning of this (Bush) administration's term, the Republican party and all of their comrades have been involved with special interest groups, appeasing the heads of oil lobbyist and big time corporate financing (Let us not forget the brilliance of the Texan businessmen of Enron.) All the while, large, infamous US corporations have sold our fiscal souls to offshore interests. Well, here is an eye opener, let's reveiw the deficit. How many home-grown jobs have been lost in the Bush administration's wake? Where has the crutch of the American economy gone, the middle class spending? Who is our country going to tax if there is no recipricol spending. Folks, we are in a world of hurt and building America back to her splendor will take more than big guns and nasty words towards our fellow neighbors. All the while, we are addicted to the consumption of oil, which gradually eroding our true wealth, shifting it to the oil producers. As our economy slows, what does and what will it matter to Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Russia, who are seeing record surpluses in their economic structures. Volley ball is fun if you have a ball to hit back; but what if you are out, with no ball. It's obvious,(hopefully) since the tragedy of Katrina that the Bush adminsitration has not acted in one single way to offset our undeniable realiability on the consumption of oil. Good old fashioned Texas Ike tea anyone? Yet, we have discovered the worlds fastest computer...? Pork barrel spending, can our leaders truly focus on restoring our blessed Country before it is too late. How many warnings will we need, for George Washington's sake?
9-15-2008 @ 6:14PM
independent thinker said...
here, here, janny! you hit the nail right on the head! we are in a terrifying downward spiral that was not happening when a democrat was in office, period. i'm not sure why people blame a democratic congress now. republicans have clearly not been conservative, no matter how badly they want to be seen that way. i'm registered independent, and if a democrat was in office for the last 8 years, i'd vote republican to break the cycle. please, republicans, do the same for the collective good of the country.
9-15-2008 @ 9:12PM
dtjump said...
All this Bush bashing is nothing more than people showing their ignorance of how this economy works.
Much of this problem and the Enron issue was caused by dishonest people, who knew better, exploiting the respective laws as they were written at that point in time. The current mortgage crisis was caused by lenders extending credit to people who had less than stellar credit, people buying bigger homes then they could reasonably afford lenders pushing ARMS and non-traditional mortgage vehicles.
What was built was a house of cards. As long as real estate kept increasing in value, all was well. But once real estate values leveled off or decreased, then the house of cards that was built by lenders collapsed. This is what we are seeing and I expect will see for the next year.
The Federal Reserve, not the Executive branch sets monetary policy. Bush did not cause this problem but his administration is working to at least minimize its impact.
As far as the investments that social security would have invested in, if a portion was privatized would have been a basket of conservative investments, including conservative stocks and corporate investment grade bonds. Hardly risky stuff. The average rate of return on these investments are in the 10% area. Government backed securities (Treasuries and etc) would be half that much.
I frankly believe that this blogger is in error and would be better off to stick to architecture. I too have done well in the market. My first pay check was $78.00/month, whether I needed it or not. I recently retired from a Fortune 500 company with a 6 figure income, started my own company and in its second year is making a profit.
Bush is getting a bum rap on a lot of stuff here and elsewhere. That do-nothing congress both the current and the previous one deserve a lot of the blame for the country's ills. The legislative branch has the bulk of the power in this country, not the executive.
Iraq was necessary, Saddam presented an unacceptable risk. While mistakes were made, they were corrected and as the results show, were successful May I remind you that the bulk of the Democrats voted with Bush on Iraq. While no special weapons were found, what was found indicated that Saddam was waiting for sanctions to be lifted before he restarted his chemical and biological weapons programs.
Katrina was a massive, massive storm. Ike appears to be similar in scope. Bush caught a lot of grief because of a hostile media and a political appointee who was too light for the job. When you bring on an employee, you don't really know how well they'll perform until they're actually in the position. You have an idea, but no certainty. Mr. Brown was underwhelming to say the least. The President wasn't satisfied and did the following. 1) Replaced Mr. Brown, 2) brought FEMA into Homeland Security and 3) increased accountability. There had been little accountabilty under the Clinton administration - far too little!
This blogger calls himself an independent. Based on his writings, he appears to be more of a left wing Democrat.
He loses credibility by his anti-administration rantings. That has nothing to do with finance and economics. BTW, the only stock I regretted selling, likewise was AMGEN. Yeah we made the same error. I'm a buy and hold guy. I'm not rolling in dough, but I'm very, very comfortable.
9-15-2008 @ 9:23PM
David T. Jump said...
This Bush bashing is uncalled for! Bush didn't create this problem, it was created by dishonest and greedy mortgage lenders out to make a quick buck.
The Federal Reserve makes monetary policy, not the executive. You blog reflects a strong left-wing bias that diminishes the rest of your commentary.
Bush has done a far better job than he's been given credit for. He's had to deal with an extremely hostile media, a do-nothing congress whose only accomplishment is re-election.
No, I'm not part of the administration - I want no parts of Washington. I am formerly as software engineer and currently a small business owner, whose company is making a profit in its second year of business.
I too invest in securities and have done well. While I'm not rolling in dough, I am very, very comfortable. While I'm no right winger, I do like Bush, as I do McCain.
9-15-2008 @ 9:37PM
Mr. noitall said...
I'll agree Bush screwed up big time, but he's not the only one. Is he a dictator, or do we have a balance of power here in this country? The one's who only point fingers at Bush or the Republicans are not leaders either. If they were honest they should admit that they dropped the ball too. I think we all have to share the blame, we all like to believe in myths until it's obvious that they are not true. The "buy & hold" myth? Most still believe in that one, I been telling people not to buy into it, but not to many want to look at the facts, it's just human nature I guess. The "you can't lose when you invest in real estate" myth? Even after all that has happened people are still waiting for the market to turn around, maybe next year they say, don't hold your breathe, I say.
I don't have time to address all of our stupid mistakes, but here's too more, calling Mr. Greenspan "Maestro" as he lowered interest rates to 1%. Let's not forget how many cheered him on as he did this, I don't recall any politicians questioning his judgement. And although many would dissagree with me I think constantly putting Mr. Buffet on a high pedestal is also a mistake. He's only human, he could be wrong about some things, for one I don't think tax cuts are a bad thing, the government collects more than enough if you ask me. If Mr. Buffet wants to donate some more of his money to Uncle Sam then he's free to do so. I also think Mr. Buffet could have done more to prevent some of this economic foolishness, people do listen to him. I few real warnings from him a few years might have brought people to their senses. Maybe a statement like this would have helped. " If you buy real estate now, with no money down, using an A.R.M., when interest rates are at the lowest point in forty years, you are a fool."
9-15-2008 @ 9:40PM
David T. Jump said...
Sheldon, you wrote: "However, I did say Bush offered no leadership in this area, and did push for policies combined with poor oversight that allowed some of the transgressions."
OK, what leadership were you expecting?
Can you provide some details on policies and poor oversight?
9-17-2008 @ 10:33PM
AL said...
McBush / Palin....will be disasterous for this country! Please open your eyes America, look beyond ideology, color and what feels comfortable, seek out the truth. McBush / Palin are all about LIES, DISTORTION and FEAR! McBush / Palin have no plan for America and are running against their own party's failures. Obama will lower taxes for 95% of us. Today McBush said the economy is "fundamentally sound" If you really believe that than you deserve what you will get with a McCain/Bush/Pailin whitehouse. Give Obama a chance to fix this economy, restore our standing in the world, transition us to true energy independence and create good paying jobs.....GO OBAMA.....America needs you!
9-16-2008 @ 2:07AM
Sheldon L said...
DTJ,
There is some Bush bashing going on here and I appreciate you taking the time to remind folks that the President is not king and is not solely responsible for our many dificulties.
It is also true that the Fed, SEC and even the DOJ have a role to play.
However, it is silly to speak of the policies or actions that you support and believe in took leadership, and the failings were not a failure of leadership.
If you simply look at policies being promoted by both campaigns now, you will find that the majority on both sides of the aisle disagree with your position. Many things can be done.
1) Lenders should be required to keep more of the loans they originate instead of pawning them off on third parties.
2) A minimum down payment should be required; historically 20%, maybe 10% but certainly not zero.
3) Working with the legistalture to prohibit receiving donations from industries related to committees you are sitting on as a blatant conflict of interest.
4) Increase scrutiny of the ratings agencies that had the audacity to rate toxic wast as Triple-A equivalent to a Treasury note by establishing some universal standards.
5) Investment banks and mortgage originators should have to hold higher reserves.
6) New financial instruments should have to be reviewed like new medicines -- for the same reason -- the harm they can do. They are the same in that they are both derived from magic formulas.
In terms of my left wing tendancies, if you read more of my posts you may find the balance you seek. This post is about Bush's short comings, financially, not about the war or Katrina, which you btought up. But it is obvious you need space to vent too. There is room for all.
Peace.