Wall Street's bulls, bears and pigs

Posted Sep 15th 2008 3:42PM by Steven Halpern
Filed under: Major Movement, Newsletters, S and P 500, DJIA, Federal Reserve

"Bulls make money; bears make money; in the end, pigs shoot themselves through greed," says Charles Payne in WStreet Commentaries. Here's his cautiously optimistic outlook.

"Let's get this straight; the Fed is willing to take damn near any form of collateral including those prints of Van Gogh's 'Sunflowers'" in the employee dining room, right? So, how much more do financial companies want...or need? They'd love a blank check but that isn't going to happen.

"The total amount available under the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) could increase from $200 billion and there could be an interest rate cut. But, for the most part Wall Street has to fend for itself.

"In the 1969 film They Shoot Horses, Don't They? we witness a Depression-era dance marathon for a grand prize of $1,500 (that's not much money now).

"The emcee of the events eggs on the contestants, already desperate to win at any cost. Throughout the film the main character is reminded of a time during his childhood when a horse was put down after breaking its leg.

"Many would say that Wall Street was egged on by an overly accommodative Federal Reserve or an administration reluctant to regulate the industry.

"As a result, the financials have been in a marathon dance for survival this year, but just like that horse at some point putting down for the count those with the largest fractures may be most humane.

"As terrifying as it seems most adults understand the notion of putting down a horse with a broken leg rather than seeing it suffer.

"Hank Paulson finally took that adult-like approach and drew a line in the sand, which in effect was like pulling the trigger, killing Lehman Brothers. In the process, however, the entire herd is running scared. Running in such a reckless manner that makes injuries like broken legs more likely than not.

"I know that this entire episode will be used as political fodder but at the end of the day it boils down to banks taking on excessive risks in an attempt to make easy money. Bulls make money; bears make money, and in the end pigs shoot themselves through greed and complacency.

"Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is still in double-bottom territory and holding on for dear life. I have to say that the resolve is impressive. While logic says to brace for a significant move lower. Technically, however, I like the way that the financials are acting,

"I think this session could be viewed in the future as a turning point. If not for stocks, then certainly for mindsets, as investors will know that companies that make it through this period are baptized by fire. Maybe the Fed comes in with some kind of loan for AIG. but the industry is on its own for the most part and that is good news.

"As much as I want to force the issue, let's just be cool. Please remain vigilant; these are difficult times but also could be great times, too, when we look back six-months from now...maybe even six weeks or days from now."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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