Over the weekend and on Monday, the population of the country suddenly divided. On one side are average folk who aren't involved in financial markets, except for maybe their 401(k), credit card, mortgage or checking account. For those people -- the great majority of the population -- Monday started the week pretty much like any other. If they glanced at the news, it was to note more headlines predicting financial ruin for investment banks and institutional investors (the news is of the actual ruin of Lehman Bros. (NYSE: LEH) and probably Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) and AIG (NYSE: AIG), but after months of such news, that may have been lost on many people). Wall Street may not have been front of mind to most people going about their day today.
Latest Developments:
• Stocks Sink on Lehman News
• Will Fed Resume Rate Cuts?
• An Unprecedented Bankruptcy
• Banks Establish Emergency Fund
• Bank of America to Buy Merrill
• Future of AIG Uncertain
• SEC to Rein in Naked Shorts
• Stocks Sink on Lehman News
• Will Fed Resume Rate Cuts?
• An Unprecedented Bankruptcy
• Banks Establish Emergency Fund
• Bank of America to Buy Merrill
• Future of AIG Uncertain
• SEC to Rein in Naked Shorts
Then there is the other side of the new dividing line: People involved professionally in the financial markets. For us, the events of the weekend and today are a sea change. Huge investment banks failing, securities trading opened on a Sunday to allow firms to unwind their positions, the government finally saying no to massive bailouts. There are going to be multiple thousands of finance professionals who lose their jobs. What will that do to the economy?
For me, a New York City resident and editor of BloggingStocks, I've felt the kind of nervous anxiety all day where I don't know if I'm going to cry or laugh. Among our team there has been plenty of gallows humor -- two actually quoted the same R.E.M. lyric in messages to me before 8 a.m.: "It's the end of the world as we know it."
That sounds dire (indeed, today feels very dire to me). But when I put aside my anxiety and wonder what all this means to folks that aren't engaged in the financial world professionally, here is how I see things shaking out:
For investors: The stock market will no doubt be extra-turbulent through the end of the year (on top of the financial sector's meltdown, we have election uncertainty and a weakening economy to worry about). I don't expect stocks to trade higher by the end of the year and think we may see a dramatic sell-off in the weeks to come. If we get a sell-off, you should use it to buy some strong stocks on the cheap. If you expect to need cash in the next year that you currently have invested in stocks, I would suggest gradually using rebounds in the market over the next few weeks to exit some positions. This is a good time to have an extra cash cushion.
For customers of financial services firms: If you have a Merrill Lynch credit card, an AIG insurance policy, or a Lehman Brothers brokerage account, I don't think you need to worry. Lehman accounts are protected, and you can move your assets to the new firm of your choice. If you did business with Merrill, you'll soon be doing business with Bank of America. It's unclear if AIG will survive, but your policies will likely be transferred to a new firm. Now, if you want to sue your broker for investing your money in any of these companies, you have a tough challenge ahead.
If you borrowed money from one of these firms: If you have a credit card, mortgage, or business loan from any of these firms, don't think this is your lucky day. You still owe the money and the firms, even as they morph into new forms, will still come after you for it.
If you need to borrow money: Surprisingly, I think ordinary consumers may find it easier to borrow money in the future as a result of this mess. Interest rates are likely to come down and basic consumer lending -- credit cards, lines of credit, car loans -- are profitable for banks who will be turning to consumers for more of their profits.
For the real estate market: The parts of the country where financial firms are major employers will feel some additional pain as many thousands of folks lose their jobs and many need to either move or trade down to a smaller home. Wealthy neighborhoods of the New York metro area will likely be hurt the most. Major cities on both coasts may feel some additional pain, but most local housing markets in the U.S. will not be affected much at all since it seems mortgage rates will remain stable and there are plenty of banks willing to lend money.
For the broad economy: The sudden demise of such large and storied financial firms will be a blow to the economy. A lot of very wealthy people are going to lose their jobs, which will impact many more jobs down the line. Housing markets will suffer more, retailers and automakers will be hurt.
But at least for now, it doesn't feel like the economy will come crashing down. I have faith that the Federal Reserve will keep the contagion from spreading. And I think about how, to the great majority of Americans, this is just more of the same dismal financial news we've been reading for over a year now. They are still taking the bus, buying groceries, showing up at work, picking their kids up after school. They are dreaming of their retirements, kitchen renovation, or next vacation. They are out there working and spending and keeping the economy afloat.
Is this the end of the world as we know it? No. Do I feel fine, as the lyrics of that R.E.M. song continue? No. Not today. Tomorrow, maybe.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 15)
9-15-2008 @ 2:24PM
tadlem said...
excellent article. well written, easy to understand... and mostly, i think accurate! good perspective and translation of today's events.
comment on the situation: i think as more large firms collapse and larger firms take them over (i.e. Bank of America) we need to be cautious about monopolies.. or the likes of them. too much power in one place is not good for anyone. not even the monopoly holder.
one question i would like answered once and for all... is what is actually causing this? so many say its 'default mortgages' or 'ever-extention by the consumer' or 'poor management by the federal reserve', etc. etc. is it all of these and more? firms like Merril Lynch are so diversified its amazing that such a collapse could happen!
thanks for the great article!
9-15-2008 @ 3:21PM
unimpressed said...
welcome to how the other half of the world lives.
HA!
9-15-2008 @ 3:24PM
Samuel said...
The blog is well written for a quick survey.
I do think that the economy needs more attention from a governmental stand point. What I mean is the decline of the economy has been gradual and is now more than ever showing it's decaying effect through over spending in foreign wars and other wrongful governmental spending.
As morbid as this sounds the outlook is bleak, if we continue in the path that we are heading towards, with investments, housing, outsourcing, etc., falling apart,the end result could be devastating.
What we need is a fresh influx of ideas and financing into small businesses and education. One sure way, is through pulling our troops back and concentrating on fixing our failing economy.
The news of Merril Lynch collapsing is just the hand writting on the wall that we need to look inwards as a country rather than outwards to fix others.
We can't continue the way we have been through the Bush years and think all will be well 2 yrs. from now. It's time to rethink our foreign, economic and strategies or else.
9-15-2008 @ 3:25PM
TAMMY BRADY said...
thank you so much for writing this to were we all can understand what has happen and what we have to look for. It is us every day people that need to know what is happening . I pray for our country everyday becasue of the shape it is in. We have let it get this way and we will have to live with what we have done.
9-15-2008 @ 3:38PM
david said...
say NO TO MACCAIN OR THIS WILL GET MUCH WORSE!
He voted with BUSH 90% of time..
Does it have to get any clearer???
9-15-2008 @ 3:52PM
Domenick M. said...
(1) Live by the sword ( unbalanced budget) die by the sword. Borrow, Borrow is the foundation of our capitalistic world AND greed. Writing mortgages, giving credit, investing on margin etc. without sound principles is the reason for this climate in the financial world. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure this was coming and it is going to get much much worse. In addition we need to stop the selling of America. China practically owns this country if they would call in their dollar holdings. I have left the market last year. I am only making 2 % on a money market account BUT I have not lost a dime in this crisis.
9-15-2008 @ 3:38PM
Tuckerp said...
This is a great article with credible perspective.
9-15-2008 @ 3:39PM
Lorenzo Biagtan said...
Our economy is struggling right now because of this man name,
GEORGE W BUSHIT
9-15-2008 @ 3:40PM
DAVID said...
Also federal reserve is just printing money, nothing behind it.
we are in debt to the tune of 100 trillion
9-15-2008 @ 3:41PM
Sonja L. Marshall said...
Thanks for sharing this information with the 'non-financial' populace. This is something every worker, especially workers with 401(k)s, mortgage, credit cards, checking accounts, etc., should know about. However, I find it amazing that these large financial firms keep collapsing. What is actually going on?
Sonja L. Marshall
9-15-2008 @ 3:54PM
Tpayne08 said...
Not so fast! Loans will be now close to imposible to get for the average American. Read this:
Your Loan Denied: Main Street Fallout of Wall Street Crisis
Posted Sep 15, 2008 01:58pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking
Related: MER, BAC, LEH, ^DJI, ^GSPC, XLF, SPY
The drama on Wall Street is already hitting Main Street U.S.A. in the form of lower stock prices and declining home values. But the situation got even worse over the weekend.
With financial institutions so focused on preserving capital as many fight for survival, "it's going to be much more difficult, if not impossible" for consumer to get a loan now, says Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco.
Given the U.S. economy is driven by consumers, whose spending has been increasingly funded with debt this decade, the inability to get a loan will have profound effects on the U.S. economy. The "credit contraction" that has just begun explains why economist and executives like Bank of America's Ken Lewis are now moving their recovery forecasts to 2010 from 2008 or 2009 previously.
Garnick, whose firm has approximately $500 billion of assets under management, shares these concerns and says the U.S. stock market is far from a bottom as a result.
9-15-2008 @ 4:01PM
lb said...
what is best way to safeguard cash in bank accounts?
9-15-2008 @ 4:09PM
Ralph said...
The banks are jacking up credit card interest rates to cut thedir losses and wsill bankrupt evryone in the Unired States who has one credit card. What should be done is the Fed should step in and tell the banks to set the interest rates to zero for the next 180 days and set in usuary laws during that period that come into play at the end of the 180 day freeze. But it will not happen the banks will simply bankrupt everyone in America
9-15-2008 @ 3:47PM
Richie said...
The financial meltdown means that far too many executives skirted their fudiciary responsiblities in search of maximized profit. To me, it is tantamount to running a car full speed off a cliff or onto a crowded sidewalk. Recklessness is a crime. The FED has much blame, because they added fuel to the fire by lowering rates, devaluing the dollar, offering banks an open credit spigot, and looking the other way for far too long. They fiddled as the economy burned.
9-15-2008 @ 3:47PM
RICK said...
Greed, this is all caused by greed and managers presuring workers to do more and more business. Hence money is loaned to people and business that shouldn't get loans. Now we all pay, stocks ans IRA's down along with the value of our home. This will not go away overnight.
9-15-2008 @ 3:51PM
Disgusted said...
Good article. My personal opinion is that the greedy pigs who were responsible for this mess in the first place ought to be punished very severely, although I'm sure they will get away with it because people like that always do. In fact, I think shooting is way too good for them. I know that in many cases, people overstated their income to buy houses that they couldn't afford, but the vast majority of the fault really lies with the sub-prime perpetrators who got rich on commissions by victimizing people who were trusting and naive. Their greed disgusts me. It's times like this that make me long for the days of public humiliation (e.g., the Pilgrims with their use of the stocks). Anyone for a necktie party?
9-15-2008 @ 3:52PM
Janet said...
I'm going to get out my Bible and see if Bank of America taking over the world is mentioned anywhere in Revelations.
9-15-2008 @ 4:52PM
Cindy said...
Is there any truth that these large companies went to Japan and Persia and borrowed money and now these companies have called in their debts.
9-15-2008 @ 3:54PM
DS2005 said...
I heard or saw something about Washington Mutual also having financial problems and looking for a buyer. This one bothers me and it also bothers me that Bank of America (The Gangsters) are so all powerful that they were considered to buy out M/L. They are the most crooked bank and have destroyed several lives of people I know of already by increasing interest, minimums and canceling accounts or lowerering credit balances. I hope to God they aren't thinking of stepping in to "help" Wamu or the feds can get ready for a whole lot more of bankruptcies, Foreclosures, debt and despair!
9-15-2008 @ 3:56PM
RON said...
This should dispell any notion that Bankers and Politicians are very bright.