Over the weekend and on Monday, the population of the country suddenly divided. On one side are average folk who aren't involved in financial markets, except for maybe their 401(k), credit card, mortgage or checking account. For those people -- the great majority of the population -- Monday started the week pretty much like any other. If they glanced at the news, it was to note more headlines predicting financial ruin for investment banks and institutional investors (the news is of the actual ruin of Lehman Bros. (NYSE: LEH) and probably Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) and AIG (NYSE: AIG), but after months of such news, that may have been lost on many people). Wall Street may not have been front of mind to most people going about their day today.
Latest Developments:
• Stocks Sink on Lehman News
• Will Fed Resume Rate Cuts?
• An Unprecedented Bankruptcy
• Banks Establish Emergency Fund
• Bank of America to Buy Merrill
• Future of AIG Uncertain
• SEC to Rein in Naked Shorts
• Stocks Sink on Lehman News
• Will Fed Resume Rate Cuts?
• An Unprecedented Bankruptcy
• Banks Establish Emergency Fund
• Bank of America to Buy Merrill
• Future of AIG Uncertain
• SEC to Rein in Naked Shorts
Then there is the other side of the new dividing line: People involved professionally in the financial markets. For us, the events of the weekend and today are a sea change. Huge investment banks failing, securities trading opened on a Sunday to allow firms to unwind their positions, the government finally saying no to massive bailouts. There are going to be multiple thousands of finance professionals who lose their jobs. What will that do to the economy?
For me, a New York City resident and editor of BloggingStocks, I've felt the kind of nervous anxiety all day where I don't know if I'm going to cry or laugh. Among our team there has been plenty of gallows humor -- two actually quoted the same R.E.M. lyric in messages to me before 8 a.m.: "It's the end of the world as we know it."
That sounds dire (indeed, today feels very dire to me). But when I put aside my anxiety and wonder what all this means to folks that aren't engaged in the financial world professionally, here is how I see things shaking out:
For investors: The stock market will no doubt be extra-turbulent through the end of the year (on top of the financial sector's meltdown, we have election uncertainty and a weakening economy to worry about). I don't expect stocks to trade higher by the end of the year and think we may see a dramatic sell-off in the weeks to come. If we get a sell-off, you should use it to buy some strong stocks on the cheap. If you expect to need cash in the next year that you currently have invested in stocks, I would suggest gradually using rebounds in the market over the next few weeks to exit some positions. This is a good time to have an extra cash cushion.
For customers of financial services firms: If you have a Merrill Lynch credit card, an AIG insurance policy, or a Lehman Brothers brokerage account, I don't think you need to worry. Lehman accounts are protected, and you can move your assets to the new firm of your choice. If you did business with Merrill, you'll soon be doing business with Bank of America. It's unclear if AIG will survive, but your policies will likely be transferred to a new firm. Now, if you want to sue your broker for investing your money in any of these companies, you have a tough challenge ahead.
If you borrowed money from one of these firms: If you have a credit card, mortgage, or business loan from any of these firms, don't think this is your lucky day. You still owe the money and the firms, even as they morph into new forms, will still come after you for it.
If you need to borrow money: Surprisingly, I think ordinary consumers may find it easier to borrow money in the future as a result of this mess. Interest rates are likely to come down and basic consumer lending -- credit cards, lines of credit, car loans -- are profitable for banks who will be turning to consumers for more of their profits.
For the real estate market: The parts of the country where financial firms are major employers will feel some additional pain as many thousands of folks lose their jobs and many need to either move or trade down to a smaller home. Wealthy neighborhoods of the New York metro area will likely be hurt the most. Major cities on both coasts may feel some additional pain, but most local housing markets in the U.S. will not be affected much at all since it seems mortgage rates will remain stable and there are plenty of banks willing to lend money.
For the broad economy: The sudden demise of such large and storied financial firms will be a blow to the economy. A lot of very wealthy people are going to lose their jobs, which will impact many more jobs down the line. Housing markets will suffer more, retailers and automakers will be hurt.
But at least for now, it doesn't feel like the economy will come crashing down. I have faith that the Federal Reserve will keep the contagion from spreading. And I think about how, to the great majority of Americans, this is just more of the same dismal financial news we've been reading for over a year now. They are still taking the bus, buying groceries, showing up at work, picking their kids up after school. They are dreaming of their retirements, kitchen renovation, or next vacation. They are out there working and spending and keeping the economy afloat.
Is this the end of the world as we know it? No. Do I feel fine, as the lyrics of that R.E.M. song continue? No. Not today. Tomorrow, maybe.
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Reader Comments (Page 15 of 15)
9-16-2008 @ 5:39PM
PHAT AL said...
I work in the the sheet metal fabricaiton industry and im not much of a big fan of bush but all i can say is that he is not fully the one to blame... but yes he is a part of the problem of why our economy is falling apart. Believe it or not, I have been following these problems since Clinton was in office.
I've read that some of you are happy that these billionaire companies are suffering and coming from a latino male who has lived his life in a average-poor community, I feel alot grief about this whole situation. The reality is as much as I know I may never be anywhere close to becoming a millionaire, I still need a wealthy person to provide me a job so I can at least support myself. By what I mean by that is: if the source of the money that provides the funds to the person/company that provides/pays you to work, can no longer provide it, it can pretty much leave us jobless. Yes, I know there are other alternatives of were you can get money but how sure can you be that you could get that money. Things are looking very tight. I doubt a couple million will be as easy to loan out as a couple hundred dollars is.
One thing I remembered about growing up is to always think outside the box. So I know that right now this may not be affecting me and most of you at the present moment but pretty soon it will.
Unfortunately our consumption of money has also drove us to this point. By what i mean by that, the money we wanted to spend it for a product that was made in the USA, was instead used to purchase the same but less efficient cheaper product that was made in China. That has pretty much been "one of the few" biggest reasons why corporate companies moved their operations across seas and look were it has landed us now. Our jobs are pretty much being moved away from our home. As interesting as it is to learn a new language, I would never have the intentions of moving out of this country.
Besides the issues I addressed, I know that there are more out there that helped cause this economic problem but since I am not writing an article, my point of this is that we can't just blame one person for all of what is happening, pretty much all of us are to blame of why the cookie crumbled. Unfortunately, I can blame myself too. As it was once said "to every action, there is a reaction". Its just too bad the reactions were not in favor of us.
My pride for this country that is as strong as the foundation that we built it on, I just hope we don't destroy that foundation. My hopes and prayers goes out to all of us.
9-16-2008 @ 6:06PM
Louise R. said...
My husband and I are in our 70's, retired and living on a fixed income - Social Security and small pension. We have some monies invested in stock, cd's. We are invested with Smith Barney and my question to you is: With the stock market, economy the way it is and will take some time to recover, would it be wise for us to pull out our small investment with Smith Barney and just put the monies in a bank and receive little interest but know it will be safe.
thank you.
9-16-2008 @ 6:24PM
BPolus said...
Reminds me of the Humpty Dumpty fairy tale!
9-16-2008 @ 8:15PM
KATE ARCHER said...
HI EVERYBODY - I WANT TO SAY THAT AS A BUSINESS OWNER I HAVE MADE MORE MONEY THIS YEAR THAN EVER
IN FACT I SELL OUT CONSTANTLY SO I DON'T KNOW WHAT THESE PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT ! I AM MAKING MORE MONEY THAN EVER KA....CHING!
9-16-2008 @ 8:33PM
KATE ARCHER said...
hey do you all know why we are in deep do do now? clinton relaxed morgage regulations so that anybody low income people especially , could buy houses!
after many years of lending to poor people who did not qualify and many did not even have jobs ..... the sh@t hit the fan and thanks to bubba clinton we are screwed up today , thank you mr clinton!
9-16-2008 @ 11:20PM
Michael said...
Check the record before you vote!!! In 2005 Senator John McCain presented a bill in the Senate which stated that there were massive housing irregularities, particularly within Fannie May and Freddic Mac and that these irregularities needed to be confronted and stopped or it would drastically affect our entire economy. When McCain's bill went before the Senate, it was killed by the Democrats!! It's hard for me to believe that John McCain is out of touch as Obama would like for us to think! McCain has the record and we need to elect him as President.
9-17-2008 @ 12:01AM
zelda said...
The end of the world as who knows it? Greedy self-absorbed people? Well, then, good news! Glad to hear it. It's about time that people like you get what you deserve. You're just reaping the results of your own evil behavior. How dare you even dare to complain when most Americans are doing worse than you? Cry me a river, spoiled brat. Grow up.
9-17-2008 @ 12:08AM
Indian said...
Asia and Asians have constantly seen this cycle. US need not worry much about this as the whole world would surely support them at this hour.
USA - You have been with us and we would also be with you.
9-17-2008 @ 12:13AM
zelda said...
Oh, by the way, Michael Stipe would be disgusted to see his song used for such a bourgoisie corporate comparison - anyone in their right mind knows that REM was liberal, anti-establishment, and wasn't designed for people like you. You make me sick. Every moron has a blog these days...
9-17-2008 @ 12:13AM
zelda said...
Oh, by the way, Michael Stipe would be disgusted to see his song used for such a bourgoisie corporate comparison - anyone in their right mind knows that REM was liberal, anti-establishment, and wasn't designed for people like you. You make me sick. Every moron has a blog these days...
9-17-2008 @ 12:46AM
knippenr said...
When i was dirt poor in the 70s everyone i knew was doing well. Now we hear that some rich people may lose money. Mabe they will experiance where i came from. They probably always had plenty. I'm not rich but i worked my tail off to get out of debt. Never had a real vacation. Do i pity the rich who may lose a few bucks? Nope.
9-17-2008 @ 10:24AM
Doc Carter said...
Wow.The most in debt entity in the world(USA)is loaning money to others?Who's money are they loaning?Will the printing presses hold up?
9-17-2008 @ 12:08PM
Alobar said...
Short-sighted and shallow article at best. Discussed only the immediate consequences to some; ignored the long-term significance to all. Get your heads out of your behinds and see that capitalism is failing big time. There ARE alternatives: Read: "The Challenge and Burden of Historical Time: Socialism in the 21st Century" By István Mészáros.
Sheesh. Come one already you sheeple. Isn't enough enough yet??
9-22-2008 @ 9:37AM
blackwatermarco said...
Jacqueline is correct. Everyone must learn to be responsible for their own finances. Money, like water, seeks its own level. If you are careless, your money will run through your fingers like said water. I believe the motto should be"buyer beware" When you purchase a home, read the fine print. Same goes for the credit card contract. Better yet, don't get a credit card at all. I have survived 51 years w/o one. All this I learned from my parents,who lived through the depression in the '30s. Thank God they lead by example or I might not have listened.
9-23-2008 @ 10:08PM
Franny said...
I was among the lucky ones to be downsized at my job. That was a few months ago, I fell short for the first time with some bills, received a call from a credit card Rep. who was rude, when she said, "How could you be late with your August statement, you should be ashamed of yourself!" I listen to her rant and rave, then she stood quiet and she ask if I was there, I said, "Yes, I am." "Well, she say, what do you have to say for yourself." I said, "Call the gov't, they have my back, I can't pay you, I won't pay you, but they will, they cover anyone, and demand no answers." I hung up, she never called again.
9-24-2008 @ 9:42PM
Ben Callis said...
Many people say that the overall problem has been caused by the present administration. I believe it goes back many years to the Republican Congress and the Clinton Presidency. Significant changes in laws were made pertaining to financial instirutions and the banking industry. It began there; and then came the idea that everyone should own a home regardless of their financial situation. That was the compounding problem and it was basically the idea of the democrats who are socialistically minded.
9-26-2008 @ 12:27PM
Nora said...
Our realtor says most folks are only getting a mortgage these days with 750+ rating and 20% down. We were turned down ten days ago for a home mortgage with our 765 credit rating, because we did not have 20% down. So I wonder where you got the idea that "most local housing markets in the U.S. will not be affected much at all since it seems mortgage rates will remain stable and there are plenty of banks willing to lend money" ?
9-26-2008 @ 7:43PM
A Patriot said...
The Muslim Agenda - Gay Rights and the Destruction of Christianity and This Country and our Economy
Historically, Religious Zealots, like Radical Muslims are smart enough to make LONG RANGE PLANS. The objective of the Radical Muslims is to destroy Christianity. They are making great progress using Americans against Americans. Gays/Lesbians against Heterosexuals.
1. Put Bill Clinton in the Whitehouse and Pelosi in Congress. Bill destroyed our economy. Look at the Current Mess and the Clintons helped with 911 by allowing the Terrorists to enter the Country. Bill spent tax dollars to further the Muslim Agenda by Slaughtering 1000's of Christians in Kosovo.
2. Let Bush, a Republican take the Blame.
3. Put Barack Obama in the Whitehouse and continue to pit Gays against Heterosexuals until Gays "win" and Christianity is destroyed.
4. Islamic Law will prevail and of course, ultimately Gays lose because Muslims don't support Gays. I know, everybody here will say "I'm crazy" just as I was "crazy" in opposing Pelosi's "bail out the Rich Plan" on housing foreclosures. Rich are now being bailed out!
9-26-2008 @ 11:11PM
blackwatermarco said...
Patriot, you sound a tiny bit like a zealot yourself. It seems to me, some heterosexuals are against gays, not the other way around. I have never heard gay folks rail against straight folks.
Americans can't be pitted against each other unless we allow it. Please try to remember we all belong to the same "group". We are all human,and a very small part of a very large universe.
Nora, banks will loan money, but the 20% they want down is to ensure that you will have something at stake and will be less likely to default. You are paying the price right now for past misdeeds on the part of banks and borrowers.