I have to hand it to Ben Bernanke. He really did the right thing this afternoon with interest rates. I was afraid he would cut them drastically to provide liquidity to the market and give it confidence after yesterday's 500-point decline. But I think that move would have been absolutely wrong. That's because it would have signaled Fed panic and would have provided no benefit for the real problems facing financial institutions.
Since he's cut rates from 5.25% to 2%, things have not gotten better in the credit markets. Instead, the rate cuts have had negative unintended consequences. The lower rates spurred inflation -- particularly in commodities. That's because speculators bought dollar-denominated commodities like oil and shorted the dollar to take advantage of inflationary expectations.
Unfortunately, these higher commodity prices squeezed middle class consumers whose spending makes up 70% of GDP growth. With declining incomes and higher costs, those consumers were being squeezed. That translated into slower growth and put pressure on companies to cut costs by laying people off. Needless to say, an unemployed worker has even less money to spend. This means even slower growth, more layoffs, and less consumer spending -- a vicious downward spiral..
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-16-2008 @ 8:01PM
Jamil Harris said...
I agree, if he would have slashed you could have added panic. Instead we got a hit up front and slight rebound in the afternoon. I myself jumped all over GE (steal at this price) - Hopefully we'll see some good numbers on october and have a decent retail season. If numbers are bad...for christmas, this thing could go on for another year!
Jamil
Jamil's Favorite site of the month is:
Corkscrew Trading Company - A vblog about a Powerball winners adventures in the Caribbean!
9-16-2008 @ 9:17PM
Frank said...
Ben and Alan should be put in orange jumpsuits!
9-16-2008 @ 9:30PM
Adam Riback said...
I think ben did the 100% right thing. The Financials are in a crisis but other sectors are not. He is not panicking but yet keeping the dollar stable in an attempt to attract foreign investors back into our system. This move may go down as one of the best moves in the Feds history. Keep an eye out for a booming stock market pretty soon. " Theres always sun after a storm" - Adam Riback