TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says they had no idea how catastrophic pulling the naked-shorting rules would be. Christopher Cox and his crowd of academics and theoreticians did more to destroy the confidence of this market with their adherence to free-market destruction of stocks than any of the managements of the companies themselves.
I know that is a strong statement, but you have to understand that the rules against naked shorting and shorting without upticks were about having firebreaks in the system. Consider these rules a swath of chopped-down trees meant to slow a fire so firefighters have a real chance to put out a monster conflagration.
Let's take AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take). Here's a company that has lots of liabilities but also lots of assets. While its liabilities are liquid -- meaning it has to pay them off quickly if there is an event that triggers payment -- its assets, such as its great life insurance and aircraft leasing businesses, are illiquid. AIG couldn't just turn around and sell them.
Still, new management came in at AIG and decided to work on a plan, meant to be revealed at the end of September, that would detail asset disposals that could make the company a more solid credit with an ability to make good on their policies on financial instruments. It would also be able to access capital in the markets once those illiquid assets were disposed of.
Unfortunately, what AIG didn't know, and the SEC didn't either, is that AIG the stock is different -- and worse -- than AIG the company. The stock could not be insulated with a firebreak from short-sellers who knew that if you broke the stock's back, you broke the company's back.
To me, this was all pretty obvious. I was a short-seller, and I know that when a stock gets hit, people fret about the company regardless of whether the company is in good shape or not. There was a time that AIG had an immense amount of capital and it bought its stock back hand over fist in the $60s, and so it was somewhat able to defend itself from short-sellers. Even then, though, there were strict limits to when and how much companies could buy of their stocks. There are no such limits as to when short-sellers can operate.
So, without an ability to slow the short-sellers down by forcing them to wait for buyers to come in and pay up, and with no ability to demand that short-sellers or their brokers borrow stock first to short directly or to sell puts to the customers, shorts were able to take AIG down from the $20s to $4 in a week's time.
To be sure, there were plenty of problems with AIG -- including, presumably, the insurance they may have offered on the solvency of Lehman (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take) and on their debt that they would be expected to pay off.
What matters, though, is how easily hedge funds were able to take this company down through endless selling.
The academics at the SEC had no idea how important their rules were when they put in the bottom on July 15, and they had no idea how catastrophic it would be when they pulled them.
I don't know a soul in the business, save short-sellers, who have participated in these raids who doesn't agree with this dynamic. Yet Cox has steadfastly refused to go back and reinstitute the rules and bring the playing field back to where it was before I retired in 2000 -- to a time when I remember how difficult it would be to create these forest fires given the breaks.
The speed is and was too great to put out the fires, so Lehman went and then AIG looks like it is going. One look at the puts -- which can only be bought in the sizes they are being bought with naked short-selling among the brokers who sell them -- tells you the short-sellers' next moves. That is why I flagged Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) to you last week. It was so obvious they were about to maul it.
When we look back at the destruction of the financials, we should remember the instrumental role the SEC played in creating the chaos in doing nothing to stop it, and, like every other government official in this drama, received no criticism or no skepticism.
I just wish for once that the government would have real people be called in -- real people like me -- to explain to them how it works and how easy it was to take down Lehman or AIG through the stock market. It was child's play, and the SEC didn't even know that.
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RELATED LINKS:
Fed Asks Goldman, JPMorgan to Aid AIG
Big Banks Circle Wagons, Plan Loan Pool
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-16-2008 @ 10:44AM
Beltway Greg said...
Yes, Bob Pasani referred to the 10% rise in the share prices the day the rules were implemented and the drop of 10% the day they expired as a coincidence. BTW, odd action in Berkshire. Any possibility that Buffett buys or backstops AIG?
Beltway Greg
9-16-2008 @ 10:56AM
william lindblad said...
This is too idiotic a statement to be worth comment.
9-16-2008 @ 11:28AM
frankt said...
I am surprised at Jim Cramer's sympathy for AIG. If one knows AIG very well, and few do, it is hard to generate any sympathy for the organization at all. Consumer policyhlders, individual investors in retirement products absolutely deserve sympathy, although they will probably come out whole (though the fund holdings might be market-battered, a normal risk). The P&C policyholders, & certainly the sophisticated P&C brokerage and re-insurance industries, always knew AIG was a very well managed house of cards for years. As an employee there in the mid '90, I had senior executives as internal customers throughout the company. We would routinely commit an AIG company with, for example, an $80 capital base, to a $20 million office lease. We would simply climb up the 130 AIG company ladder until we found an AIG company with sufficient equity to satisfy the landlord, and use that company's balance sheet for the liability. But the rule was never, never put the Triple A rating on a corporate obligation directly. The triggers in many other contracts of every kind should AIG lose it's Triple A rating were such an over-used, smoke and mirrors trick, the company never thought it would face calls on those clauses. AIG does have significant valuable assets. Sun Life and other acquisitions, private equity companies, the large piece of Goldman they acquired when Corzine talked the Goldman bigwigs to go against Wall Street Biblical law and HOLD it's damaged bond holdings as the end of the early 90's bond crisis hit. Goldman went to the stupidest lenders at the time, the Hawaiian Trusts to raise a few billion, and to AIG, tempting Greenberg's nose for blood in the water, and AIG supposedly ended up with a percentage ownership, reportedly 17 percent, of Goldman. When I was there, the investment folks down the hall referred to routinely being offered 17% of every deal Goldman was investing in.
Greenberg used the 130+ AIG companies to obfuscate the financial issues quite succcessfully. As we have seen over and over again, Moody's, S&P, and the others are "white tower" analysts with little feel for the realities of the businesses they whose debt they rate. (go visit them the rating agency analysts, interview with them, it's painfully obvious). The rating agencies are always the last to "get it", a-la Enron, Worldcom, AIG, etc, etc. In the late '90's when I lost a big commercial mortgage deal to Nomura, and given my knowledge of what worked in rated deals back then, went to my managers and said, "what we lost to cannot be done", days later the Lehman MD of the CMBS group demonstrated the rating agencies had completely missed Ethan Penners latest "reverse equity" trick that he was including in Nomura's CMBS offerings.
It's not the shorts that are killing AIG, it's AIG's own Greenberg-era greed, compounded by rating agency incompetence. It the smart short sellers who smell blood earlier than the other sharks in the pool.
AIG is not a kind and gentle company that is a great loss as a corporate model. To it's employees, it's always been a sweatshop. It had a 5 year "cliff" plan where none of AIG's contributions to one's retirement or 401 vest at all until day one of Year 6, and most employees don't last that long, leaving massive amounts piling up in the retirement funds for the benefits of the "key man" candidates the company chooses to keep long term.
The whole absurd Greenberg family drama, where the dutiful college graduate son is ousted, (after all, he had been through rehab) to be replaced by the dropout ski-instructor son, until he was ousted by the perennially 72 year old elder Greenberg. (he was 72 for 5 years or so) Come, Mr. Kramer, blame the shorts? How about blame the source of 30+years of predatory management and hubris on the part of M.R. Greenberg.
9-16-2008 @ 11:05AM
Chris said...
If short-sellers drive the price down (as is claimed) then why doesn't another company come in and buy at firesale prices?
Why didn't anyone buy Lehman?
It could have been purchased on the cheap, yet everyone stayed away.
In my opinion, blaming short-sellers misses the mark.
9-16-2008 @ 11:32AM
Mister E said...
This is the financials margin call. When an investor makes a bad bet and gets a margin call, the brokers have absolutely no mercy. They have no problem wiping you out completely. Now it is their turn. Unfortunately, the government bails some of them out, and others, Merrill, find a sugar daddy. Investment banks and hedge funds should be wiped off the face of the earth. They were a sophisticated scam to begin with. This is only justice. Tragically, it is the individual investor and the public at large who are once again shown no mercy, by the government.
9-16-2008 @ 11:34AM
gary doyel said...
I wonder if homeland security might be exploring the possibility that some of the naked short selling or short selling in general may be acts of financial terroism? flying planes into financial institutions is not the only way to bring down the system.
9-16-2008 @ 12:40PM
Kent said...
At the risk of sounding naive, i would think the SEC would have suspended trades in AIG stock to cool things down a bit so that investors have time to evaluate the true state of AIG financial condition. AIG would then have had time to deal with the crisis to undercut some of the short-selling .
9-16-2008 @ 1:04PM
MarionPolk said...
Selling America Short
Imagine a world in which anyone can buy any amount of fire insurance on any building, regardless of its value or ownership. Imagine that anyone can buy any amount of life insurance on any unrelated individual, without their knowledge or consent.
The economic incentives in such a world guarantee that many buildings will burn, and many will die, to the financial benefit of those buying the insurance policies where they have no risk of actual loss.
Wall Street and the SEC have created such a world. Credit default swaps allow a party to reap a financial reward when a company fails. Shorting the ABX index allows a party to reap a financial reward when asset values of certain financial instruments decline in value. Unlimited shorting of stocks, without restraint as price declines, magnifies both the speed and magnitude of the price decline. Purchase of puts sends a stock price lower as the option market makers sell unlimited, unregistered, un-issued shares into the market.
Where the capital markets once functioned as a source of financing for new business ventures, Wall Street and the SEC have turned the capital markets into an unregulated, rigged casino where gambling and asset destruction are the main attractions. Economic incentives now heavily favor the destruction of investment capital, rather than the creation of additional capital.
What can we expect to be the logical result of the past 8 years of SEC and Wall Street corruption of our capital markets?
(I first posted this on 4/13/2008)
9-16-2008 @ 2:27PM
beachpauls said...
Mr. Cramer was a little late with his blog this morning. AIG is toast. They have no one to blame but themselves. They need to look in the mirror each unemployed morning and remind themselves that their greed and shortsightedness, not shortselling, brought them to this point. Stop apologizing for them!
9-16-2008 @ 8:03PM
Jessy S. said...
At the risk of making a broken record out of this article, short selling isn't the problem. What's the problem is that 20 years of Clinton-Bush hurt the system and made it possible to trash the investment banks while sticking it to the little guy. The reason why stocks like AIG are falling is because the CEO's and other executives are buying out the stock at an incredible rate. Reread the comments by Frankt and MarionPolk and then harrass Jim on Mad Money using their talking points because Jim needs to be taught a lesson.
9-17-2008 @ 10:46AM
Bob said...
This is what you get when you have the wolves guarding the hen house......Ok, so they're incompetent wolves......
9-17-2008 @ 8:26PM
dom said...
I have been trading for a hedge fund for the past 11 years. It just burns me up when I see the press or companies themselves come out and blame the short sellers for what is happening to some financial companies. I think it just noise. If I try to sell a stock in my account which I am not long and designate it a straight sell my computer puts up a pop up dissalowing this. It has always been the same since I started here back in 97. These companies, regulators, and the press are so full of sh##, remember congress ruined the mkt when it converted to decimals. Bring back the up tick rule...I don't know of any brokeage firm out there right now that is allowing someone to sell a security short with out borrowing it first. Who? Tell me who. I hold accounts with two large discount brokers and niether one of them allow me or any other customer to sell a naked short. I am out raged.. Perhaps if the fundamentals of these companies were stronger investors would not be forced to sell out. Bring back the uptick rule..it will not make a bit of difference. The nerve of Goldman Sachs to even make such comments when they were shorting sub prime commercial paper all the way down. Give me a break please.
9-18-2008 @ 4:44PM
skip said...
Come on FrankT Cut your BS Cramer is 100% correct. Go play with your toys!
9-19-2008 @ 12:12PM
Billie said...
Clean house-top to bottom. Everywhere!
Then: Require those resposniable to start paying for damages.