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Why does gasoline cost so much despite oil's price drop?

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Oil falls, yet the price of gasoline is hanging up there, in the stratosphere. What's going on here?

Well, as is often the case in the oil and gasoline markets, the reasons are many.

First, the price of oil is falling on concerns that both the global economy and the U.S, economy will slow to a crawl (if not worse) due to the current credit crisis, says economist David H. Wang.

Oil, which fell $3.96 to $91.76 per barrel Tuesday at midday, has declined more than 30% since hitting a record high of $147.27 per barrel in July.

"The financial crisis suggests that emerging market oil demand growth will slow, and that's the primary reason you're seeing the price of oil decline," Wang said. "Strong demand for oil in China and India really boosted oil's price in the last three years. You lower that China-India demand and you have a different oil market."

Now, what about gasoline prices? Here, U.S. motorists will face a wide range of prices, depending on where they live in the U.S., economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Tuesday.

"The biggest factor short-term for gasoline is Hurricane Ike, which shut down a fuel pipeline and refinery capacity in Texas," Dawson said. "This will reduce the supply of gasoline in the South, so price increases of 50 cents or more in the Southwest and Southeast will not be unusual."


According to AAA, the national automobile club, the national, average price for regular unleaded gasoline Monday was $3.84. There were also reports of price gouging following damage caused by Hurricane Ike.

However, Dawson cautioned that there will be areas where prices will climb more than 50 cents, such as high-cost cities, and of course in hurricane-damaged areas of Texas. Conversely, there will be areas that will see less than a 50-cent jump, like areas that are very close to refineries, such as New Jersey.

Longer term, Dawson said he expects prices of gasoline to fall as refineries in the Southwest are repaired.

"If U.S. consumers continue to reduce their gasoline consumption, as they have for most of the year, prices will drop in three to four weeks to the $3.50-$3.60 range for regular unleaded, probably even lower, by the end of the fall," Dawson said. "The lower gasoline price trend was simply disrupted by the summer's hurricanes."

Oil and Gasoline Market Analysis: Two other factors affect U.S. gasoline prices: 1) the U.S.'s inadequate refinery infrastructure -- a new refinery hasn't opened in the U.S. in more than 20 years; and 2) the U.S.'s low fuel economy standard. Most economists agree that increasing required fuel efficiency for U.S. vehicles would take some pressure off gasoline prices.

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 06:00 PM

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