I have been astonished by the speed of the collapse of our financial system. There is no precedent in my lifetime for such a rapid collapse. And I doubt that the lessons of the Great Depression pertain to the current situation. This is the Greatest Depression -- about which I posted in March -- and the lessons of this one are likely to expose five fundamental flaws in our financial architecture.
These flaws are the reason for the rapid meltdown and they include:
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Securitization -- the popularity of shifting risk from an originator to a group of investors in a package wrapped in a AAA credit rating based on flawed analysis.
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Lack of transparency -- the inability to estimate the future cash flows of such a complex security -- thereby creating massive uncertainty in a period of decline.
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Leverage -- borrowing way too much money with too tiny a sliver of capital to protect against risk -- making it possible to wipe out all the capital with a 6% decline in the value of these securities.
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Heads-I-win, tails-you-lose pay -- Paying deal makers for the size of their deals and sticking taxpayers and shareholders with the losses.
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Global interconnectedness -- thanks to information technology and ease of investment rules, a sneeze in the US causes hurricanes around the world.
How could we cure these problems? As I posted, we could end securitization, demand complete transparency, raise capital requirements, link pay to profits rather than sales, and create firewalls to prevent problems in one market from infecting the rest. But with the global financial architecture crumbling worldwide, there's no time for this now.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-16-2008 @ 10:53AM
william lindblad said...
While all of the stated reasons have merit,
the root cause is lack of control and oversight. As to the meltdown, I have been predicting this since Dec. 07.
There are numerous posts to this effect.
There is also an 80% chance of a major natural disaster that will compound the situation anytime in the next 8 months.
I am not using a crystal ball.
9-16-2008 @ 10:58AM
David said...
Somebody should start suing the auditors of these companies. Most audit firms are in bed with management. Based upon what is happening in the financial markets, the auditors did one heck of a poor job.
9-16-2008 @ 11:25AM
Rex said...
Peter, you neglected to blame the Karl Rove, Bush, the Rublicans and John McCain for these problems. Shame on you! Standard Democrat shill protocol (your daily plan) requires that you turn EVERY article into a political diatribe. So far, you've done well - at least 80% of your articles shill for Obama and the Democrats. But, I'm looking for 100% from you. Keep up the good work comrade!
9-16-2008 @ 12:15PM
Kent said...
Securitization has taken on a gargantuan leap since the days I've become aware of it. My home mortgage some years ago changed hands several times and ended up at Mutual of Omaha before I paid it off. Today, global investment arms are involved buying up these mortgages at a discount so that the seller is able to generate more cash flow to invest somewhere else. My mortgage more than likely would have ended up in Europe or Asia today. This viscious cycle is equivalent to pyramid schemes leaving the final buyer holding the bag by their guarantees they can't back.