TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the intervention will help all financials worldwide. How about this? We are better off than we were yesterday.
You have to understand that we simply wouldn't be able to open most financials if AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) had failed. Our new sovereign wealth fund, the Federal Reserve, came up with an elegant plan to take over AIG and make good on what would have been broken guarantees that would have caused worldwide capital calls and bank closings that honestly would have made the Great Depression seem like the Little Depression, World War I to our new World War II. That's worth avoiding.
It's hard to rally on this. People are still reeling from the enormity of it and the fragility that we didn't know about. I am actually pleasantly surprised that the Fed recognized that we had a problem this size on our hands.
You have to look at this only one way: Without this nationalization, we might not have had banks paying off other banks. We would have a seize-up and a destruction of capital that we simply couldn't handle.
Now we are going to rebuild on a firmer basis.
I believe, again, that AIG was actually somewhat solvent but it had guarantees meant to be paid off, like Fannie (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take), simply on house depreciation. It was a miserable underwriter and arrogant beyond all get-out, and it wasn't just Martin Sullivan that caused the problem. The now allegedly senior statesman Hank Greenberg set up this model, AIG simply took it to an extreme.
Last night before the news that Lloyds might buy HBOS, another mortgage issuer of no judgment, it looked like we could be down big on the recognition of the trouble we must have been in.
Now it looks like we simply aren't in as much trouble as yesterday. That makes things more constructive and not as worth selling after this save.
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RELATED LINKS:
AIG Bankruptcy Threat Forced Fed's Hand
The Fed Bails Out AIG
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.










Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-17-2008 @ 9:21AM
LJ said...
AIG has MANY MANY businesses other than mortgage investments. EXTREMELY diversified. It has an income bigger than many small countries. It would be nice if the media types, including you Cramer, would stop the hysteria that shakes millions of small investors who then run for the hills, compounding the problem. The responsibility to "inform" does not come without the responsibility to gauge the impact of what you say. These are not restaurant reviews you are writing. The personal finances of millions of people, if not the economy as a whole, is riding along when one of these mega-giant companies falter. These companies might be able to balance safely on the curb if the jabbering media were not there to help push them under the bus. Yes, very bad investment decisions were undoubtedly made . I hope no matter who is elected, that stringent rules are put in place for further loans and real estate deals.Purchasers must be obligated to put down SUNSTANTIAL amounts of cash, just like in the old days, before they are allowed a loan. Out with speculators!!
9-17-2008 @ 10:00AM
K said...
Will the 80% be given back or will the fed keep it after the loan is repaid?
9-17-2008 @ 10:11AM
rob n FL said...
I have a couple of questions about this AIG thing. Looks like they had two issues: 1) the assets of the firm on the balance sheet were to a significant degree SIVs and they are not worth what balance sheet says they are and consequently the company did not have assests to back the insurance company capital ratios. But what are those actual ratios? Does $85 billion cover all the risk? 2) one of the insurance lines is mortgage insurance. The question is what is the worst case scenario of insured risk that could be turned into claims? Who holds the policies?
The thing that makes no sense is for BAC to buy MER. That is something Banking regulators need to be very careful of permitting. Big difference between MER failing and BAC.
9-17-2008 @ 10:44AM
Paul Hester said...
I am no expert. Seems to me this is a"bridge loan to nowhere". AIG seems "extremely" over leveraged and 80 billion seems like a drop in the bucket to "fix" the monster company. 80% of nothing is 0. I think the fed had to give the effort to at least try to help. Hopefully I am wrong. I have been here before, in 2002 losing all my Worldcom investment and most of my Tyco investments as well. This is hugh compared to those days. Good luck to all of us if AIG goes belly up. And unfortuately there is more to come.
Regards
9-17-2008 @ 10:44AM
LEN said...
Where is the SEC in all of this? A branch of our government that is the over sight for investors. And now, our government is covering up the screw-up of the SEC by a 85 Billion dollar loan, which will turn out to be a 85 billion dollar write-off when AIG files for bankruptcy.
9-17-2008 @ 11:10AM
Ray said...
The FED (as in i'm fed up with them in control of our countries money) the sure are cashing in to the tune of the USA. Ever since they took control in that sneaky way that they did, we have had all lost. Do some research someone and see the truth.
9-17-2008 @ 11:11AM
gorjing said...
the gov. will keep the 80%
9-17-2008 @ 11:34AM
Charles said...
Don't whine about the market. It is what it is. With all the volatility in the financials this is an unprecedented time to make HUGE amounts of money. The government knows this and they are are going to make out like bandits. Get in the game, make a plan and stick to it. If you sit on the sidelines and let fear run your life, you will get only what other people allow you to have.
9-17-2008 @ 11:50AM
beachpauls said...
Wall Street took Main Street to the cleaners. As a taxpayer, if I wanted to own AIG, I would have bought it. It was all a bluff and you sir, were a part of it, knowingly or not. Lehmans bluff was called and the market rebounded. This isn't capitalism. You want to get rich in America be a crook and rob the treasury. That is the message that has been sent loud and clear.
9-17-2008 @ 11:53AM
bill said...
where is the gov when i need bailout when gas is so high i can not feed my kids
maybe it is time for this wall street driven gov to fail and of course all these so called experts think gov should bailout AIG if not they would all lose money if gov did not do a bailout AIG but i find it hard to swallow an ex ceo of AIG saying this is a national security problem no its his security problem his golden parachute will be worth less if no bailout where is the bailout of all the people who see their home prices go down maybe Ben B. should change his name to Ben WALLSTREET B. cuz that is where all his cronies are and now he is rewarding them for their stupidity good job Ben keep throwing logs on the fire of the demise of the country and the middle class
9-17-2008 @ 4:40PM
Daggone said...
Wait til the FED needs a bailout... who's gonna help them? China? Yea, we're screwed.
9-17-2008 @ 4:44PM
aRealPatriot said...
I am sick of the massive corruption in the US. The republican party is against ALL regulation or oversight. In 2000 Bush said "Businesses MUST be allowed to regulate themselves!" According to Bush and republicans they would love to see an Enron on every Main Street in America. Republicans who are against regulation are enemies of our country. They believe corporations should be allowed to do whatever they want, even own our government. But any company which is allowed to run amuk with no regulations will ALWAYS screw other people, ALWAYS. Anyone who votes for any repubilcan is voting against the United States and Americans. Repubicans are worse than any terrorists. They want to destroy our country and our way of life by giving the keys to our future to corrupt organizations and corporations. When will republicans start to think? Are they capable of thinking? Do they have brains? Or do they react to stimuli (ie: propaganda) as amoeba react to electrical impulses? I don't see much difference between amoeba and republicans. Maybe amoeba are more intelligent though. They can't be more stupid.
9-17-2008 @ 4:52PM
Ken said...
Really? We're better off now? I just love how you "analyists" spin, spin, spin.
The depression has started. The robber barons (that would be you) are large and in charge.
Hope to see you at the soup line.
9-17-2008 @ 4:59PM
Connie said...
I have annunities with AIG Sun America is my account down the drain AIG isn't answering the phones? My allocation by Asset Class 25% Stocks, 5% Balanced, 69% Fixed Account Options.
My holdings are in Growth Income, Davis Venture,Columbia Marsico, Capital Appreciation and 7 year fixed MVA. Can anyone enlighten me. Thank you.
9-17-2008 @ 6:10PM
Jim said...
Back to the earlier comment - will the fed give the 80% ownership back when the loan is repaid. I think so based on the fact that this is what banks do with collateral. Is this collateral for sure. We won't know until the filing comes out explaining what "equity notes" are since that is what the 80% ownership is composed of.
9-18-2008 @ 1:22PM
Chris said...
To Mr. "arealpatriot" above. What a rant even though you would be very hard pressed to back up any of your comments. How about we keep these discussions about the topic and not bash any political party with unfounded statements. It takes a very small mind to make very small minded comments. Allthough I'm sure you are right, the Dems would have done better. Oh wait, they have been in power in congress and nothing, not sure Clinton put anything into place to stop this sort of thing either. See, it is no single party's fault, both parties are corrupt. What we need is strick oversight without meddling in day to day operations and decisions i.e. watch for and punish bad behavior and practices but let them go about their business when there is none of this. Its called capitalism and it works and its ok for businesses to go under as stronger, smarter businesses emerge.
9-25-2008 @ 5:35PM
Maria Pollock said...
I feel Raped..my money taken, by Legalized Stock Broker Gangsters...
My life Savings are down over 65%, some shares I sold at a great loss last week, the CASH(over $22,000) taken from me, and placed without my knowledge or approval, into an uninsured automatic sweep account with Ameriprise Financial Brokerage Account, that was never explained to me when I opened an online account three ago, that was then American Express. Viewers should be WARNED to check the samll print, prior to selling any stock, because you could possible not get any CASH MONEY, for a very very long time. Now it is lost and held up in paperwork madness...The Fund RSRV Primary R (RFIXX) has my money whci I needed to live on. Corrupt Capitalism indeed....Any Lawyers out there want to help me....