Should the government have let AIG fail?


Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

  • We're gonna have French Toast for breakfast, French Fries for lunch and French Poodles for dinner in honor of our most recent socialist step. This is a historic juncture in the history of the world, as we edge through interesting times.

  • I spoke about this on CNBC in 2003 -- yes, I had more hair and less chin -- and felt like I was screaming about a monster nobody yet saw. Now granted, I was five years early and there were a LOT of opportunities between then and now but "socialism," "stagflation" and the perils of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) were officially flagged.

  • Why do I highlight this? Simple -- the issues existed five years ago and have cumulatively built since, percolating under the system, growing in magnitude, magnifying in consequence. That's why there isn't a single, simple solution.

  • Time and price, my friends, time and price.

  • Do I think the government should have let AIG (NYSE: AIG) fail? No, I don't. It would have created a cataclysmic vacuum that would have sucked General Electric (NYSE: GE), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C) and anyone else tied to the derivative ball and chain into the abyss.

  • The "margin for error" from a solution standpoint is thinning. I mean, if the government is cherry picking its portfolio, its perceived credibility will come into question.

  • That's the risk -- shifting social mood, which shapes risk appetite, coupled with derivatives, overwhelmed with debt issuance into a deleveraging process as home values stagnate, unemployment grows and geopolitical tensions mount.

  • My money is split into two buckets. The first is a trading account, where I'm "hitting it to quit it" both ways, and my long-term, which is 100% cash and backed by t-bills (this is important).

  • I'll be back -- head up, eyes open, thoughts positive.
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