Should the government have let AIG fail?
Posted Sep 17th 2008 11:10AM by Todd Harrison
Filed under: General Electric (GE), Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Amer Intl Group (AIG)
Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
- We're gonna have French Toast for breakfast, French Fries for lunch and French Poodles for dinner in honor of our most recent socialist step. This is a historic juncture in the history of the world, as we edge through interesting times.
- I spoke about this on CNBC in 2003 -- yes, I had more hair and less chin -- and felt like I was screaming about a monster nobody yet saw. Now granted, I was five years early and there were a LOT of opportunities between then and now but "socialism," "stagflation" and the perils of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) were officially flagged.
- Why do I highlight this? Simple -- the issues existed five years ago and have cumulatively built since, percolating under the system, growing in magnitude, magnifying in consequence. That's why there isn't a single, simple solution.
Time and price, my friends, time and price.
Do I think the government should have let AIG (NYSE: AIG) fail? No, I don't. It would have created a cataclysmic vacuum that would have sucked General Electric (NYSE: GE), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C) and anyone else tied to the derivative ball and chain into the abyss.
The "margin for error" from a solution standpoint is thinning. I mean, if the government is cherry picking its portfolio, its perceived credibility will come into question.
That's the risk -- shifting social mood, which shapes risk appetite, coupled with derivatives, overwhelmed with debt issuance into a deleveraging process as home values stagnate, unemployment grows and geopolitical tensions mount.
My money is split into two buckets. The first is a trading account, where I'm "hitting it to quit it" both ways, and my long-term, which is 100% cash and backed by t-bills (this is important).
I'll be back -- head up, eyes open, thoughts positive. Tags: aig, citi, citigroup, fannie mae, FannieMae, fnm, ge, general electric, GeneralElectric, inthenews, jpm, todd harrison, ToddHarrison
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-17-2008 @ 11:58AM
Lafayette said...
If you give a dance you have to pay the band. Years of money policy madness have finally caught up with this country. We have and continue to bleed dollars supporting other countries and other economies; now , when we desparately need to pull our own irons form the fire there are no dollars left. 75% of the good we buy are made overseas, customer service jobs now belong to Gupta Singh in India; the manufacturing base we once depended on has been gutted; you cannot collect taxes when people are not working for decent wages. Now the Feds are going to prop up AIG the same way they are propping up all the other money houses, they are doing it on credit, not hard cash; they are printing money that we do not have. In the end this will only multiply the problem and lead to a real recession or even worse, a full-scale depression. The stock market crash of 1929 and the ensuing great depression happened because the federal government gave business a free hand; they who do not study histroy are doomed to repeat it.
9-17-2008 @ 12:26PM
contrariansite said...
Speaking of seeing this coming 5 years ago, here's a amazingly prophetic speech given by Ron Paul to the House Financial Services Committee, September 10, 2003...
http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul128.html
9-17-2008 @ 12:28PM
contrariansite said...
Here's an amazingly prophetic speech by Ron Paul 5 years ago to the House Financial Services Committee, September 10, 2003...
http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul128.html
9-17-2008 @ 12:57PM
david said...
Stupid Bizzaro government at work again. Do not the needs of the many not outweigh the needs of the one. Where was the terrorist attack?Where was the corporate scandal? Where was the lack of sales? There was none. This company failed simply on its own lack of solid management. This bailout is a bandaid to to the enevitable and prevents the natural order of progression and competetion. When one falls there will be others that take its place. There are thousands of insurance companies that could have benefited from feeding off the dead carcass of AIG putting millions of dollars into hundreds of thousands of people. Instead we give a loan to a company that will never again have the credit status, the reputation nor the stock revenue to pay off this additional debt. Its like giving a loaded gun to a group of small children. Stupid. Stupid. Stupid. Suze Ormand most be trying to save her own bad investment advice!!
9-17-2008 @ 1:56PM
bob said...
What else could they do. They are trying to prevent another 1929.
Consider all the "special" people who were easily qualified for credit they had no way to handle, maxed out credit cards, took home equity loans and then - defaulted. The "other" hard working people have to mop up the mess somehow. Credit should be drastically limited to ONLY those who QUALIFY. Carry on.
9-17-2008 @ 7:47PM
winslow said...
The Republicans CANNOT be allowed to continue. The future of the country is at stake.
9-22-2008 @ 3:18PM
Chris Koffend said...
Republicans to blame? It was the legislation of 1995 that deregulated the mortgage industry in an effort to increase mortgage availability to the "minority" and "working class". This is what spurred the mortgage situation we have today. The 1995 bill was passed with a mandatory 7 year review. In 2002, Bush tried to re-implement greater oversight of the mortgage industry. However, everybody (ie. elected politicians - typically the least knowledgeable people in the country) were opposed to this (lead by the Democrats). While most can agree that Bush is not the most brilliant of minds (obviously somebody much smart than he was pushing the buttons), had his efforts been successful, the condition we are in (relating to the mortgage crisis - the main cause of our condition now) would not be anywhere near the level it is today.
Borrowing more money than you can afford to payback is stupid. Doing so on the belief that the value of the "house" you purchase is going to significantly appreciate is taking (big) risk. When you take risk and are not paid off, you fail. If you can't afford to take the risk, you shouldn't. It is nobody's fault but the borrowers that took a bad mortgage and over extended themselves.
Once again, those of us that are responsible are going to bail out the irresponsible. Slow, steady, smart is almost always the surest method for long term financial success.
High risk, short-cut taking efforts are not the actions of the continuously successful. If you insist on taking high risk (personally and if it is your profession) then don't cry when your risk fails and don't expect to get bailed out by responsible, intelligent, and inevitably more successful people!
10-29-2008 @ 11:46PM
Jim Bob said...
Since I live in California and they seem to like coming here then I say give them more money to take their lavish jaunts. We're running a very large deficit as our illegal immigration policy runs amuk and our politicians strive to bring more in. Give us your gangs that run drugs and your criminals that kill our cops and citizens.Welcome to the land of the gays and the home of druggies. If your kid needs sex education just send him to good ole Caleefornia. Got to teach them how men take it in the rear and women wear and use the plastic peanus. Nuff said