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Should the government have let AIG fail?

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Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

  • We're gonna have French Toast for breakfast, French Fries for lunch and French Poodles for dinner in honor of our most recent socialist step. This is a historic juncture in the history of the world, as we edge through interesting times.

  • I spoke about this on CNBC in 2003 -- yes, I had more hair and less chin -- and felt like I was screaming about a monster nobody yet saw. Now granted, I was five years early and there were a LOT of opportunities between then and now but "socialism," "stagflation" and the perils of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) were officially flagged.

  • Why do I highlight this? Simple -- the issues existed five years ago and have cumulatively built since, percolating under the system, growing in magnitude, magnifying in consequence. That's why there isn't a single, simple solution.

  • Time and price, my friends, time and price.

  • Do I think the government should have let AIG (NYSE: AIG) fail? No, I don't. It would have created a cataclysmic vacuum that would have sucked General Electric (NYSE: GE), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C) and anyone else tied to the derivative ball and chain into the abyss.

  • The "margin for error" from a solution standpoint is thinning. I mean, if the government is cherry picking its portfolio, its perceived credibility will come into question.

  • That's the risk -- shifting social mood, which shapes risk appetite, coupled with derivatives, overwhelmed with debt issuance into a deleveraging process as home values stagnate, unemployment grows and geopolitical tensions mount.

  • My money is split into two buckets. The first is a trading account, where I'm "hitting it to quit it" both ways, and my long-term, which is 100% cash and backed by t-bills (this is important).

  • I'll be back -- head up, eyes open, thoughts positive.
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    Last updated: November 26, 2009: 04:01 AM

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