Hank Paulson said that "the American people can be very, very confident about their accounts in our banking system," according to AP. This means you should be very, very skeptical about the truth of that statement. And that's because there is a good chance that Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) will fail and take the Federal Deposit Insurance Company (FDIC's) reserve fund down with it.
How so? WaMu's failure could cost $20 billion or more, and the FDIC's fund has $45.2 billion in it, according to AP. If that WaMu cost is right, no problem. Unless, as Wilbur Ross predicted, there are 1,000 bank failures before this is all over. If so the FDIC would need to raise more money to pay off all the deposits in the failed banks. But there's plenty of money available, right? Just this morning, the Treasury sold securities -- dubbed a Supplementary Financing Program -- to pay for its little $85 billion loan to buy American International Group (NYSE: AIG).
And with WaMu getting its credit rating downgraded to junk, who will want to do business with it? Will another firm want to step in and buy it before it files for bankruptcy? That would be nice because if it costs much more than $20 billion for the FDIC to rescue it, we are going to see inflation spiking as our government prints more and more money to bail out all these failed financial institutions. And that won't make Americans feel confident about their banking system at all.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns AIG securities and has no financial interest in the other securities mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-17-2008 @ 1:31PM
Phil said...
Any reputable company that purchases WaMu would have to run one hell of a campaign to reinstate the company's reputation. Like the article said, nobody in their right mind will invest in this bank(under that name) for quite some time, making a $20 billion buyout a shot-in-the-dark. This whole corporate buyout, bank failure scenario has been warned for years-but its all to blame on the lack of checks and balances in the housing market-let amateurs make amazing bank on houses which the lower-to-middle class could not afford. It's been warned-research previous articles in 2001, 02, 03 from Wall Street Journal, NYP, and any member of reputable Associated Press-it was CLEAR. Time for change? Yeah, but from who. Please vote!
9-17-2008 @ 2:04PM
kjordan944 said...
We all know the new money is being printed 24 hours a day to bail out all of the financial disasters. Does anyone know exactly how much new money has been created to do this? And at what point does the dollar lose all of its value? And finally, at what point after the dollar loses all of its value is a new currency issued? How far away is a new currency?
9-17-2008 @ 2:18PM
william lindblad said...
Unfortunately, Barney Frank is not my Congressman and although he is at the top of my "to go" list, I have to hope that the people in Mass. realize that he is the #1 source of all misery. He sat on his dead butt and now wants the taxpayer to pay for his lack of oversight.
Everyone on both the Senate and House finance committees have to go. There is no excuse for this screw up.
9-17-2008 @ 2:41PM
John Huckleberry said...
AIG should never have been saved. Now every large company in US will think the US will bail them out so heck let's keep sucking our companies dry. Bad move Bush. Inflation is next.
9-17-2008 @ 2:57PM
robert lipton said...
the writer owns aig and still prognosticates?
9-17-2008 @ 3:15PM
Rex said...
Peter,
You've been ripping on everyone else lately for bad investments, but I see form your disclosures that you own AIG. What happened to your 2% sell rule?
You owe it to your readers to document your AIG position - including details about how much you lost.
Peter Cohan - pro-Democrat, anti-Republican political commentary shill - let's see how good of a stock picker he really is!
The ball's in your court Peter - show us your AIG details...
9-17-2008 @ 3:19PM
Joe Stock Man said...
lol,,,, Ok ya WaMu is not going bankrupt. It's the oldest trick in the book. Wamu makes a roomer and ever one freaks out. And WaMu bye's it's stock back for cheep. When they sell the stock back to everyone for a higher price, they will have made more money from the stock then they lost from the housing drop. Think about it some one is buying up all that stock, could it be wamu? 10/22/08 Wamu will report and the stock will jump so fast. I have the in side, I know some one that works for wamu. Mike you should tell every one to sell but you should bye as much WAMU as you can.
P.S Make a lot of money and don't believe everything you hear on TV or the net
9-17-2008 @ 4:59PM
Velvet said...
You know someone on the inside? What a hoot! Wanna buy a bridge? The only way WaMu will go up is if a big bank (that was sanely administered) buys them for $4 a share.
9-17-2008 @ 6:04PM
Mary said...
I freely admit I don't know much about the stock market. I've just been picking up on what my husband's been telling me, but I think you'd have to be flippin stupid not to understand bank failures is a problem to the economy.
I don't understand how McCain could ever think we don't have a problem. I know he's changed his story now, but really. It took things to get to this point for him to realize that? I'm not upset with Obama for saying we do have a problem, might not be what we want to hear but its there.
Doesn't anyone wonder where all this money is coming from? Paying for a war and all those stimulus payments? They're going to have Americans wondering why we can't just print up money ourselves, lol. Can I have access to the US ATM that just keeps shooting out cash so I don't have to stick to my budget? No one is really thinking about what's backing that paper money.
9-20-2008 @ 11:25AM
Terry Finn said...
The printing-press Fed is not going to let WAMU fail now. NO WAY! My rather large investment(7 figure) two days ago at $2.40/share in WAMU is now up 77% at $4.09. Not bad in a 36 hour period. And this run up is far from over. It is on the no short sell list. No one can sell WAMU unless they actually own the stock. This ain't brain surgery. You are welcome to sit by and miss the opportunity of a life time. Not me partner.
9-26-2008 @ 12:33AM
Doug said...
"My rather large investment(7 figure) two days ago at $2.40/share in WAMU is now up 77% at $4.09. Not bad in a 36 hour period."
And now, just six days later, the stock price is $0. Ouch!
9-27-2008 @ 11:12AM
Steven said...
It turned out to be some opportunity of a lifetime, but apparently not for some folks out there.
9-27-2008 @ 1:03PM
laura said...
Whatever you decide to do......DO NOT put any money in the market....If you put it in anything.....real estate...people always have to have a place to live and yes, it may keep going down but will eventually go back up and it is REAL property not plastic....It has always been the constant....