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Dollar falls Thursday, but the decline is orderly, not frenetic

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The dollar was lower early Thursday against most of the world's other major currencies, but traders underscored that the expected decline was orderly, not frenetic nor frenzied.

"We are seeing an orderly decline in the dollar, which was expected given the increased U.S. Government borrowing and spending associated with the AIG bailout and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rescues," Currency Trader Andrew Resnick said. "Banks are still hoarding cash and are reluctant to lend to one another but we're not seeing a large fall in the dollar, which is a moral victory of sorts."

At 10:20 a.m. EDT the dollar was mixed across the board - - down about one-half cent to $1.4383 versus euro and one-third cent to $1.8204 versus the British pound, but up about one-half yen to 105.24 versus Japan's yen.

Overnight lending rates drop

Resnick said he does not expect the U.S. Federal Reserve's effort, in conjunction with the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of Canada, to auction $247 billion "to solve the financial crisis in a day or a week or month, but it is having its intended effect."

"It is easing money market pressures because overnight money market rates dropped about 120 basis points to 3.80%," Resnick said. "But more importantly it's sending a signal to the cash hoarders and those who may want to make a bet on the opposite of the central banks that 'You had better be careful trying to speculate against us because the likelihood of a series of cash interventions is high.' Over time, this will help maintain liquidity and keep the currency markets orderly."


Resnick's currency trading stance? "Flat. Flatter than a pancake, obviously, until the currency markets have normalized and until financial system liquidity is not an issue. Let the markets settle down," Resnick said. "And don't fight the Fed, or the ECB, or the Bank of Japan, or the Bank of England. They can draw on more resources than you or I."

Currency Market / Economic Analysis: Central bank intervention is the 'back-half,' if you will, of the solution to the financial crisis. The front half: a new Resolution Trust Corporation to buy up distressed debt, and an expanded Federal Housing Administration operation to refinance mortgages. The RTC will help end the debt / banking bankruptcy chain reaction and the FHA will help stabilize median home prices.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 07:13 PM

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