What's the first price Americans are likely to pay for the U.S. Treasury's proposed $700 billion bailout to stabilize the financial markets? Higher prices for imported goods and higher domestic inflation, currency traders say. The dollar Monday fell against the world's other major currencies as institutional investors and other currency traders started to come to terms with sheer size of the U.S. Government's proposed intervention.
The dollar fell about 1.1 cents to $1.4608 and $1.8442 versus the euro and British pound, respectively, and about one-half yen to 106.38 versus Japan's yen in midday Monday trading.
Cites laws of economics
Currency trader Andrew Resnick told BloggingStocks Monday that unless the laws of economics have been suspended, the dollar's direction, short-term, is likely to be lower.
"This is going to be a large expenditure of public funds. We can't tax our way out of it. And if [Republican Party presidential candidate U.S. Sen. John] McCain is elected, we won't tax our way out of any of it, so that leaves two options, borrowing or printing money," Resnick said. "The currency market right now believes it will be mostly borrowing, which means more dollars in supply, forcing the dollar lower."
Resnick added that he presently has dollar-short positions in the euro / dollar, dollar / yen and British pound / dollar currency pairings.
Further, Resnick said that since the U.S. Treasury's bailout announcement -- the largest prospective U.S. Government intervention into the private sector since the New Deal era during the Great Depression -- one factor has mitigated the dollar's fall, so far: the flow of capital into the U.S. as part of a flight-to-safety strategy.
"Foreign investors are parking capital in U.S. Treasuries as part of a reduced risk strategy and because global economic growth is slowing. That's boosting the dollar somewhat and lowering our borrowing costs," Resnick said. "But if foreign investors find another safe haven or better risk/return opportunities elsewhere, the dollar will head much lower."
Even without the above, Resnick expects the dollar to re-test $1.50 versus the euro and $1.90 versus the British pound by the end of Q4. What would reverse the above? "A large tax increase at the federal level or massive spending cuts," he said.
Forex / Economic Analysis: The U.S. Treasury Department's effort to make the bailout as broad and as wide as possible does give it more flexibility to deal with the crisis by making more distressed / bad assets eligible for government purchase. But, as trader Resnick indicated, that stance is also fanning fears of large increases in government borrowing -- a decidedly dollar-bearish policy.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-22-2008 @ 1:54PM
NoInform8tion said...
Well I think we all figured the dollar would start it's fall Monday. Afterall, we have to borrow to bail out our banks, that's not such a good thing. Plus, the housing crash is still not being addressed. Add to that the fact the bail out reminds people of depression era desperation moves, might instill some panic here and globally.