AOL Money & Finance

Paulson's plan spikes oil; slashes dollar, stocks -- don't get fooled again

More

Hank Paulson's plan to use $700 billion of our money to buy toxic waste from banks is going up in flames. And in the wake of that collapse, speculators who can't short financial stocks are driving up oil prices and slamming the dollar and stocks in the bargain. How so? Fortune reports that oil rose a record 20% in one day -- to $127; the dollar fell more than it has in four years relative to the euro, while the Dow fell 3% -- or 373 points.

Simply put, Paulson is strong and wrong. He was wrong about subprime being contained. He was wrong about oil prices being driven by supply and demand -- the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) found that 81% of trades in this July's runnup to $147 a barrel were from speculators. He was wrong about the bailouts of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) and American International Group (NYSE: AIG) stabilizing the market.

And his plan to spend $700 billion of our money -- with unchecked dictatorial power -- to buy banks' toxic waste in reverse auctions will not solve the problem. Financial institutions (FI) will not participate because to do so would cost them capital they can't raise elsewhere. After $800 billion in taxpayer money down the drain, we are no closer to a solution.

What would fix the problem?

Using taxpayer money to recapitalize the banks. Why? Banks need capital. Washington pushed the banks to raise it from foreign governments. After losing money on their initial investments, those foreign governments are no longer willing to take that risk. As I posted, we need to own the banks ourselves and monitor their actions closely -- by causing the current cataclysm they have proven incapable of managing themselves.

In exchange for that capital, taxpayers will get their equity at today's low prices. If the economy recovers, we can sell those equity stakes to the public at far higher prices and recoup that taxpayer money. The Democratic proposal is moving in this direction as it discusses giving the government Contingent Shares in exchange for financial assistance.

Unfortunately, given the inability to value the toxic waste, any plan that involves putting a price on it will either impoverish the banks or the taxpayers while enriching the manager of the auction. In this case the manager would probably be Blackrock (NYSE: BLK), which is already reaping fees from the government for liquidating Bear Stearns's toxic waste. Make no mistake -- the Paulson plan is a government contract for Wall Street during a slow period.

We got railroaded into a $1 trillion war in Iraq on false pretenses. Let's not let it happen again. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+43.7610,290.73
NASDAQ+13.412,164.49
S&P 500+5.491,098.50

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 12:36 PM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

DailyFinance Headlines

Latest from BloggingBuyouts

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

BioHealth Investor Headlines

WalletPop Headlines

My Portfolios

Track your stocks here!

Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

BloggingStocks Partners

More from AOL Money & Finance

WalletPop Headlines