Hank Paulson's plan to use $700 billion of our money to buy toxic waste from banks is going up in flames. And in the wake of that collapse, speculators who can't short financial stocks are driving up oil prices and slamming the dollar and stocks in the bargain. How so? Fortune reports that oil rose a record 20% in one day -- to $127; the dollar fell more than it has in four years relative to the euro, while the Dow fell 3% -- or 373 points.
Simply put, Paulson is strong and wrong. He was wrong about subprime being contained. He was wrong about oil prices being driven by supply and demand -- the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) found that 81% of trades in this July's runnup to $147 a barrel were from speculators. He was wrong about the bailouts of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) and American International Group (NYSE: AIG) stabilizing the market.
And his plan to spend $700 billion of our money -- with unchecked dictatorial power -- to buy banks' toxic waste in reverse auctions will not solve the problem. Financial institutions (FI) will not participate because to do so would cost them capital they can't raise elsewhere. After $800 billion in taxpayer money down the drain, we are no closer to a solution.
What would fix the problem?
Using taxpayer money to recapitalize the banks. Why? Banks need capital. Washington pushed the banks to raise it from foreign governments. After losing money on their initial investments, those foreign governments are no longer willing to take that risk. As I posted, we need to own the banks ourselves and monitor their actions closely -- by causing the current cataclysm they have proven incapable of managing themselves.
In exchange for that capital, taxpayers will get their equity at today's low prices. If the economy recovers, we can sell those equity stakes to the public at far higher prices and recoup that taxpayer money. The Democratic proposal is moving in this direction as it discusses giving the government Contingent Shares in exchange for financial assistance.
Unfortunately, given the inability to value the toxic waste, any plan that involves putting a price on it will either impoverish the banks or the taxpayers while enriching the manager of the auction. In this case the manager would probably be Blackrock (NYSE: BLK), which is already reaping fees from the government for liquidating Bear Stearns's toxic waste. Make no mistake -- the Paulson plan is a government contract for Wall Street during a slow period.
We got railroaded into a $1 trillion war in Iraq on false pretenses. Let's not let it happen again. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-23-2008 @ 11:45AM
THOMAS R MANNING Jr said...
THERE SAYING THE TAXPAYERS WILL MAKE MONEY ON THIS BECAUSE THE MARKET WILL GROW MAKING THE PRODUCTS THEY AUCTION OFF MORE VAULUABLE THEY WHAT WE BOUGHT THEM FOR.LOL LOL LOL
9-23-2008 @ 12:46PM
Robert T said...
Simply do the Reconstruction Finance Corp. system and allow the Treasury to buy preferred stock of banks that request
help. Let the banks that have the mortgtage problems work them out. Don't let the banks off the hook and don't let beaucrats have control of the mortgages. Socialism is bad enough now!
Keep it simple.
9-23-2008 @ 12:58PM
25676996 said...
Simply do the Reconstruction Finance Corp. system of the 1930s and allow the Treasury to buy preferred stock of banks that request help. Let the banks that have the mortgage problems work them out. Don't let the banks off the hook and don't let beaurocrats have control of the mortgages. Socialism is bad enough now. Keep it simple!!
9-23-2008 @ 1:21PM
Jackie said...
I thought that was the point of Paulson's bailout, to make the market liquid again? I thought that was why he was pushing to make the investment houses banks instead so they could accept deposits and raise capital the old-fashioned way: by using depositors' money? There is so much confusing press on this bailout that I'm not sure anyone understands it. Can someone explain to me why the golden parachutes are eliminated, even if it's a private contract between a CEO and a company? If we're bailing them out, why can't the contract be broken? If a company is bankrupt, then the contract should be null and void anyway. I know I sound like an idiot, but this stuff is too confusing. I know one thing for sure: I'm paying through the nose for something that will probably not benefit me, while the people who ran my investments into the ground get to keep their millions.
9-23-2008 @ 2:13PM
Joe Constable said...
We need another FDR and an another New Deal. Obama has the potential to provide them.
9-23-2008 @ 2:39PM
Michael LAING said...
I do not understand why we are using tax payer’s dollars to bail out the banks, while suggesting we should show our gratitude to the architects of this fiasco, by giving them golden parachutes. Why do we not make the banks negotiate with the defaulted homeowners and renegotiate the mortgages? This would keep people in their homes paying, contributing to recovery process, instead of been thrown out, leaving depreciating assets for the already depressed prices for the banks to squander our $800 Billion on?
9-23-2008 @ 3:21PM
Anastasia said...
Why are we blaming the democrats or the republicans, we should be pointing the finger at ourselves. We wanted bigger, better, faster and we were willing to take out the credit to get it. We are Americans damn it and we want our cellphones, sattelite tv, internet, gas guzzling SUV's and four bedroom houses to put it in. WE will mortgage ourselves to the hilt and take out credit cards til our fingers burn so we can have our $80 Ugg slippers because the JONES have it so why can't we...AND there will always be the MAN behind the green curtain who will profit off us and our greed. He's gotta make a buck too and live in a big house, with a fancy car. I worked for a subprime mortgage broker in the 90's. He was packaging bad loans with good loans and selling them way back when. I asked his partner "how the hell can you guys do this, these people will never be able to pay" and he said "hey if there is a bank willing to buy them, we get our commission either way". Check out where MILA's owner is now. Read up on that company in Washington State. Don't say this started happening when Bush took office, its been happening and its been building. Point the finger where it deserves to be pointed at yourself! GREED...Arrogance and Ignorance worst combination ever.
9-23-2008 @ 3:30PM
RKIDD said...
An old farmer once told me that " If the rats or termites get too bad , you might have to burn down the barn and rebuild."
Let wall street burn, there are plenty of honest business men and women that will rebuild.
Sure there might be some tough times ahead, but, we cannot allow our nation to continue on its current path.
9-23-2008 @ 3:57PM
DonR said...
And BUSHEAD said "our economy isn't that bad!"
9-23-2008 @ 4:02PM
an american taxpayer said...
I was watching the hearing on the massive bailout plan; and I find the idea of the bailout outrageous. It is unbelievable that some people such as Paulson would think that we, the American people, living in the information age, would be so ignorant as not to see through his either incompetence or right out lies to get, from the American government and the regular common taxpayer, a blank check. The only explanation, plan, or expected outcome he can give is that "it is complicated". Actually, it is not complicated. It is very simple for anyone who has ever conducted any business: the one who does not pay his/her/its bills when due has to face the consequences. If some businesses did not conduct themselves with integrity and conducted what to the general taxpayer would be fraudulent activity, then they should face the consequences, be put on trial, and go to jail if found guilty. If they fail in their execution of duties, then they should be replaced, and fined for their deleriction of duties. If the ones who had money did not know how to use it for the benefit of all, for the common good, then they should not be trusted with it anymore, much less give them more money. A bailout makes no sense at all. I say NO BAILOUT. Let them trade places with the good honorable taxpayer, have the ones responsible for the failure fall down for either their incompetency or their dishonesty, have them replaced with trustworthy and, because of their trustworthiness,in the long run more competent Americans. John McCain had one thing right when he stated that the strength of America is in its people, the American worker. America is strong when its people is at work. We know how to work, we know how to be productive. We can get our country back on track. But we need government to protect us from thieves or incompetents who are behaving like spoiled unruly children who throw away their parents fortunes on irresponsible activities, and when the money which they have not earned yet spent runs out, keep coming back to mommy & daddy (the government and the taxpayers )for more to waste (with no personal or intellectual growth -shown by the absence of a plan of action, no sense of responsibility -wanting the full amount and nothing less, etc.). I could keep going on but I will spare you. Contact your senators and representatives and let them know you are against the bailout. Stop the raping of America. We Americans will start buying and spending again when we know that the fruit of our labor is not going to support thieves and/or incompetents(check out how the market was rising in the beginning of the hearing and then dropped after the hearing ended because Paulson could not convince anyone that his "lack of plan" would improve the situation). Let the Paulsons (those for whom Paulson is covering) have to face up to responsibility. If they want money from the government, have them employ and train employees in exchange for government credit. I can think of many solutions to the problem, and bailout is not one of them. We are trusting on our leaders to do what is right. NO BAILOUT! Keep our country free, Keep our country safe, NO BAILOUT!
9-23-2008 @ 4:01PM
jwllop cpa said...
The companies that got themselves into this situation need to account for the problem with their shareholders, not the US Taxpayer. The shareholders' may have lost their value, but the country should not have to pick up the tab for mistakes the company made.
As a small business owner, I have extended credit where credit was not warranted. My mistake - My problem.
NO BAILOUT
9-23-2008 @ 4:22PM
Consult1on1 said...
DON'T BLAME FREDDIE & FANNIE
Everyone is griping about the bail out. Maybe things would calm down somewhat if the real root of the problem was exposed. My wife worked indirectly in a Mortgage environment. Loan Officers were consistently falsifying incomes, net worth and appraisals as to let the secondary market loan be obtainable and make their income. This was also know by Bank Executives who would fire them but never went back to correct the problems. How many Banks knowingly let this practice go on because they knew they could sell the loans on down the road, track them down and let their assets fund the bail out?
As part of the Bail Out:
1) Investigate loans that are in trouble, confirm income, appraisals information that was used to obtain the loan was correct, if falsified by the borrower take it away, if falsified by the lender make them pay the difference.
2) Offer REWARDS & AMUNITY for information leading to the arrest of those who falsified information knowingly for borrowers. (You would be surprised how many simply used white out on documents after borrowers signed documents.)
THEN WATCH ORGANIZED WHITE COLLAR CRIMINALS SCRAMBLE.
BUT DON'T PUNISH INDIVIDUAL TAX PAYERS
9-23-2008 @ 5:25PM
perry martin said...
lets go with TRICKLE UP !
Give each American taxpayer making under 500 thousand a year a one time payment of 2.5 million. giving these truly middle class taxpayers a break. they in turn will buy cars and houses, and make investments. honest banks will get their business and prosper. those taking this option give up future social welfare benefits, reducing future cost to taxpayers.
this will create jobs by providing money to spend and invest.
this will open up jobs for under and unemployed
workers.
honest bankers will prosper, slugs will die.
WIN/WIN
SIGN ME UP !!!
9-23-2008 @ 5:31PM
JC said...
If we could only get those people to pay back the bad loans they took out the last bank crash we would be able to afford this. Oh that 's right. They now have bad mortgages that we can pay for.
Let the markets and the banks float as if our economic system were capitalism.
Does Neil Bush have a big bad mortgage?
Stop welfare for the weathy!!!!
9-23-2008 @ 5:34PM
Curt said...
Senator Chris Dodd is one of the problems, not part of the solution to the financial crisis. Where has he been when these banks were making these "liar loans" and $0 down mortgages to people who could not afford them? He is the number 1 recipient of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae lobbyists' contributions. Having him be a major player in writing the bail out legislation is tantamount to having the fox watching the hen house.
Some of his largest contributors to his failed presidenbtial bid were from Wall Street and other financial institutions. Have we had a satisfactory response to his "VIP" mortgage from Countrywide Mortgage?
9-23-2008 @ 5:38PM
Rex said...
America spent the last 15 years building ever bigger, ever grander McMansions and vacation condos - all paid for with less and less down payment on the back of over-stated incomes and "wink-wink" loan underwriting. The wolf was kept from the door with ultra low interest rates and exotic mortgages (2/28's, negative amortization, interest only, etc.). So now, who is to blame? The idiots who bought more house then they could afford and then pulled out the equity to buy vacations and SUV's and the criminals in the mortgage food chain who enabled them.
Suffice it to say though, just like the fool neighbor who smokes in bed and sets his house on fire - we still have to send the fire department or else the entire neighborhood will burn down.
I say the USA should authorize rewriting mortgages with the proviso that some of the charge-off gets sold to USA (so the banks stay solvent) and then the USA puts a 50% lien on the tax-refunds of the borrower until that loan is paid. In other words, just like if you flake on a student loan, the IRS takes away your tax refund - same thing here, except the seizure is capped at 50% of any year’s refund, repeated until it's paid. If the taxppayer dies, the remaining lien goes onto the property as a non-interest accruing federal tax lien or else gets deducted on a 25% basis from the social security survivor benefits left behind by that taxpayer – or a combination thereof. And anyone who buys a house and pays off a federal tax lien qualifies for 4% interest mortgage, back by special Federal plan – as an incentive.
The idea here is to stabilize people where they are at and attack the debt repayment piecemeal.
Here’s an example:
Homeowner has $300,000 mortgage debt now, but can only afford $225,000 @ 5%.
Feds step in and authorize a locally underwritten new loan. New loan is for $225k, the $75k is a now debt to the USA, collectable by IRS. Taxpayer’s refund was going to be (example only) $2,500 but now they only get $1,250. The $1,250 goes back to USA via IRS. No interest accrues on this – we don’t want to pile on. In 5 years, there’s a means-test hearing to determine if the payments can be accelerated.
My math says that you can help 10,000,000 homeowners this way for $750 billion. Problem solved.
9-23-2008 @ 7:15PM
LiliMoM said...
Wake Up People ---- We are ALL getting the SHAFT ---- repubs and Dems alike from those who love no country ------ ONLY MONEY !Good Grief --- the money grubing financeers love that BIG INTEREST money they get from credit cards and inflated mortgage interest ---UP FRONT----the middle class started running out of equity --- so the big money grubbers lobbied to expand loans to people who would eventually default ---- that was the plan --- suck the last cent of interest out of people and then skim off their big payoffs and then default --- let the government come in and bail it out and then they turn around and buy up property/securites for pennies on the dollar and start all over again ---------- WHAT IS WRONG WITH PEOPLE That they can not figure out what the heck is going on!!!????!!!
9-23-2008 @ 7:23PM
LiliMoM said...
There are some REALLY good Ideas being presented on this blog ---- I wish some of my fellow posters were in a position to influence this proposed bailout.
9-23-2008 @ 8:22PM
john said...
Dear People, If the government is going to take "my" tax money and give it in trust to some people, like bankers, as a tax payer, I suggest or request that they give it to some OTHER people. Who? Give it to the homeowners who have or are near defaulting on their mortgage loans. Yes! I trust those people to eventually repay the loans more than some "investment loan bankers" who already have large homes, don't you. This "plan" of giving the money to the less wealthy would help the people who REALLY need help. Boland7214@aol.com
9-23-2008 @ 8:27PM
tarogifts said...
I'm just a country girl-don't know a lot about all this economic mayhem-been trying to figure it out. What makes a lot of sense to me is if the government is bailing out these banks because people aren't paying their mortgages-why doesn't the government send checks to people with incomes under a certain amount-so they can not only pay off their mortgages, but spend some money in the system as well! It would help out a lot of people and make our country more strong and prosperous! My business is way slow-I have no idea how I am going to pay my mortgage. I am farming like crazy. If things keep going downhill, you people out there will appreciate those of us who have sore backs and dirty hands. Support your local farmers! Give money to the people-not the wealthy bankers!