Bernanke warned that a recession might come if the bailout plan did not pass. And as much as I like the idea of the government bailout of Wall Street -- I hate government interference in the free markets, and bailouts can encourage more bad behaviour. It is hard to get a good understanding of the cost of this Wall Street bailout plan. But I ran some numbers that I thought were interesting.
- $700 billion cost of proposed plan
- 305 million estimated number of Americans
- $2,295 estimated cost per American
- 151 million estimated workforce (excludes retirees, kids, etc.)
- $4,635 per working American
- $13.8 trillion estimated US gross domestic product
- 5.1% cost of bailout plan in one year's domestic product
- 13 days each American has to work to pay off bailout plan (5% of a year)
Considering we could be looking at a recession, and the economy normally grows 3% a year, this does not look so bad. A $700 billion dollar bailout would be equivalent to a one-year recession with a negative 2% growth rate. These calculations are a rough estimate of the impact of such a plan and gives one food for thought as to which is worse. So which would you prefer, a recession or a bailout?
Kevin Kersten is an Stock and Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and/or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.
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Reader Comments (Page 5 of 59)
9-25-2008 @ 9:23AM
Karl Fogg said...
I own a service business and along with the long hours and headaches I am "blessed" with a nice house, a few cars and the kiddo goes to a good school. All of it is gone in a second when the US Treasury declares insolvency.
Come on folks, we are not going to work 14 or 140 days to pay this loan off! We are "borrowing" the $700,000,000,000.00 from some where to bail out banks and investors. This little bail out will put us to 11.4 trillion dollars in the hole. The good news is the dollar will devalue more so the debt won't seem so big!
The banks are in much better shape right now than the government that wants to help.
This thing could make 1929 look like a walk in the park, my dad's family had to eat their mules during the last depression, how many of us have mules today? Although, it would be kinda fun to spar with former CEO's over dumpster turf, don't you think?
Call your local so called elected official and tell him/her hell no! We have to face reality sooner or later!
9-25-2008 @ 9:26AM
mdge said...
How did the gov't arrive at 700 billion as the necessary amount? The Republicans were in control of the lawmaking Congress during the Clinton years as well as the last eight Bush years. I detect an undercurrent of hate for minorities in many of these missives, just as Nazi Germany tried to blame the Jews for any problems. I now know someone on assistance who is unable to work. No free rent. Food:300 a month for three people. Not the easy free ride that many picture. Required to apply for jobs and give full report of each day or help is reduced or stopped.
9-25-2008 @ 8:08AM
SLBushway said...
What about personal accountability? Those who signed the mortgages didn't know what they were signing? They didn't know how to look at their income potential and decide if they could afford a mortgage? What about all these tax stimulus checks that all of you held your hands out for? You don't think that had we said no to this idea that maybe there'd be more money in the till? If you're not smart enough to analyze your income, to study the financial times, to understand what you are signing - you're likely too stupid to own a home.
9-25-2008 @ 9:41AM
RE broker said...
Well what about the other $425B that we dumped into Freddie/Fannie ect. this month. Folks this is just our government "sticking another coin in the slot machine", we have only just begun with this "bailout". My guess is we will pump about $2-3 Trillion into the "economy" before we cure the "problem". But just wait and see what happens to inflation once we do, if you think having health care is the big issue now, wait a couple years when 1/2 of this country will be begging (or worse) just for food...Health care...fahgetaboutit!
So if we are going to do this, let's make sure congress understands we want an "equity position" in the bailout to counteract the effects of the inflation that will follow. I propose the following.
How about taking the $700B (and any other funds that will inevitably be approved for similar purposes) and dividing it equally into every tax payers retirement accounts (if you don't have a retirement account, get one). as it looks like the initial payout to the American tax payor(s) would be about $5,200.00 each. The(se) dollars MUST stay in American tax payor(s) retirement account(s), placed ONLY in American owned and operated banks, and can ONLY be invested (by the banks) in wholly owned and operated American company(s) that employ ONLY tax paying American citizens.
NOTE: We will have get used to being a manufacturing based economy again, that PRIMARILY NOT EXCLUSIVELY produces and consumes it's own products. Sorry this fantasy of not manufacturing anything and letting others do the low wage work (manufacturing) so we can indulge ourselves with low cost products, and in return we get to have only high paying hi-tech jobs, and provide the world economy with financial support services only, was an ill conceived fantasy has turned into our nightmare!
Under this plan we accomplish several goals.
First, we acknowlege that we need to get back to a balanced manufacturing/service based economy that really works.
Second, we acknowledge that we need to have more equity invested into our economy by saving and investing and not just spending every last penny we make on payday! This bailout money MUST only be used for investing in America, and not spent on crap we imported from other countries. Remember the $300.00 check we just got to spend any which way we want, we can't do that again!
Third, the banks get the liquidity they claim to need, and the tax payors get something to counteract the inflation we are about to create.
This is a very simple plan of manufacturing and consuming our own products, which will allow the service industry(s) to flourish, and for us to collectively and safely have the financial resources to provide for ourselves with the education and proper health care we desire.
The part of all this plan some Americans are NOT going to like is having to give up the "etitlement" attitude. This attitute and the politicians who pandered to it, along with the citizens who allowed it to flourish (which in one form or another is ALL of us), is the very core reason we are in this position. If we have the courage to let go of our fears and embrace our faith in society, we can and will overcome.
The ulternative is to continue down this path headlong into the financial and social ruin of our great nation, with the end result being poverty and suffering for all.
Consider all we have been through as a nation and look at the results of our decisions. Forget the politics, and let go of the blame.
It's time to make the right decision(s).
9-25-2008 @ 7:48AM
dcham81 said...
All of you who actually think that the general public should be held responsible for the fall of these banks are crazy. I work 40+ hours, and have decent credit, but could not get any of these companies to help me get a loam because they said my age made me a threat. I got news for you all, I make plenty enough money to support my family and me, and I should not have to be responsible for any of the money mistakes other made. If you only make 1200 a month why in the he** would you ever mortgage a house at 600-700 a month. People need to live within their means and learn to keep money on hand for the economy and changes. Groceries and gas are NEVER a set price and all people should be smart enough to know that. If you can't pay your bills and have a little left over, you are living outside your means and need to look at your budget again. I do not feel as though any of my money should go to help bail these people out. If you can't budget right there are consequences. It is a fact of life, and it is time we get use to it. What kind of examples are you really teaching your children. The value of a dollar is nothing to anyone anymore because you have other hard working Americans paying for your mistakes, and no offense, I am tired of doing it. If everyone that did not get into the mess worked under the table and lost no taxes (yes, those jobs still exist everywhere) then you all would still be screwed and losing everything. So face the loss and move on and quit putting our money that we are working for to better US at risk to cover YOUR mistakes. I vote NO to this stupid Bailout!!
9-25-2008 @ 9:41AM
David said...
What insentive checks? lol
9-25-2008 @ 9:47AM
Dhubhgaill said...
Hey Kevin K. I don't get benefits where I work. I am in the medical profession (not a doctor) and I don't get $345 a day before taxes. I would dance for $345 a day before taxes and benefits. I would dance for benefits. I pay my bills, own a modest home that is appropriate to my income and is paid off. I didn't buy some fancy new house I couldn't afford, I stayed with the one I could afford. Most of these people bought more than they had money to pay for. Why should I have to pay to allow them to stay in their fancy homes while I stay in my plain jane model. Somehow I resent MY having to pay money I don't have to spare, just so they can stay in their fancy houses. I do agree on one point, give John Q Public the money to pay down their personal debt and jumpstart the economy. Bail out the common man, not the $50 million a year + bonus guys that ran the economy into oblivion. NO ONE is worth $50 million a year. Greed begets greed.
9-25-2008 @ 9:48AM
Lou said...
We need a revolution .It's time to rid ourselves of the corrupt congress and replace them with people who work for a living so they know what the average american needs.no more lawers in washington we need people with common sense not Harvard and Yale degees .I do not want a socialist goverment .We need to remain free .
9-25-2008 @ 9:48AM
Sharon said...
It would take me 31 days to pay off the $4635. I have been taxed to death.No one listens to what we want or need. NO BAILOUT!! I would rather suffer the consequences (recession or depression)now than pass it on to the next generation.
9-25-2008 @ 9:49AM
Charlene said...
I prefer neither a bailout nor do I prefer a recession, I prefer this!
I'm against the $85 BILLION bailout of AIG.
Instead, I'm in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in a "We
Deserve It" dividend.
To make the math simple, let's assume there are 200,000,000 bona fide
U.S.
citizens, aged 18+. Our population is about 301 million counting every
man, woman, and child.
So, 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up.
Now, divide 200 million, 18+ adults into $85 billion - that equals
$425,000.00 each!
Yes, my plan is to give that $425,000 to every adult as a "We Deserve
It" dividend.
Of course, it would NOT be tax free. So, let's assume a tax rate of
30%. Everyone would pay $127,500.00 in taxes.
That sends $25.5 billion right back to Uncle Sam! It also means that
every adult 18+ has $297,500.00 in their pocket.
A husband and wife would have $595,000.00!
What would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00?
* Pay off your mortgage - housing crisis solved
* Repay college loans - what a great boost to new grads
* Put away money for college - it'll really be there
* Save in a bank - create money to loan to entrepreneurs
* Buy a new car - create jobs
* Invest in the market - capital drives growth
* Pay for your parent's medical insurance -health care improves
* Enable Deadbeat Parents to come clean - or else
Remember this is for every adult U.S. citizen, 18 and older (including
the folks who lost their jobs at Lehmann Brothers and every other
company that is cutting back) and of course, for those serving in our
Armed Forces.
If we're going to do an $85 billion bailout, let's bail out every adult
U.S.
citizen!!
As for AIG - liquidate it.
* Sell off its parts.
* Let American General go back to being American General.
* Sell off the real estate.
* Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it
up.
We deserve the money and AIG doesn't. Sure it's a crazy idea, but can
you imagine the coast-to-coast block party?!
How do you spell Economic Boom? W-e D-e-s-e-r-v-e I-t
d-i-v-i-d-e-n-d!
I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the
$85 Billion "We Deserve It" dividend more than I do the geniuses at
AIG or in Washington, D.C..
And remember, The plan only really costs $59.5 billion because $25.5
billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.
9-25-2008 @ 9:50AM
kdetman said...
Please excuse my ignorance, but I have only been getting bits and pieces of this whole thing. How exactly would we pay for this? Higher taxes? I'm not really understanding how it is going to cost us $2,000/person, how do we pay that?
9-25-2008 @ 9:51AM
kirra Grey said...
Something that almost no one is thinking about here, what about the honest, hardworking Americans who's credit is messed up because of no or limited health care. My kid was riding her bike and was hit by a drunk driver with no insurance. My employer has crappy healthcare and we ended up with close to $100,000 in unpaid medical bills. Once the hospital got a judgement against my paycheck, we almost lost our house. Not all people who have bad credit are bad people. We kept our house, but lost almost everything else. But, most important, our daughter is alive. I'd give up a place to live and all my wordly possions to have her alive. Think about that when you insult people whith bad credit. Many of you are a stone's throw away from something like this yourselves!
9-25-2008 @ 8:09AM
Conners said...
How bout we pull out of Iraq and all the wars we started. How bout we not buy any more oil and start using some other domestic source of fuel. How bout we stop exporting jobs to other countries. How bout we end the 'Credit Rating agencies' and start a new credit process.
How bout we start looking out for americans first rather than isreal, they don't really car about us.
9-25-2008 @ 8:11AM
mth said...
Lock them all up, liquidate their holdings and put it all back! Politicians and CEO's alike
9-25-2008 @ 8:14AM
Dee said...
I really like what Marie said and a couple of others. We need to let Congress and the "little boys using our money to make them deep pockets" foot this bill. My husband & I work hard just like every other taxpayers. We live within our means. Instead of building these 300,000.00 homes try building more affordable housing and force those that can but are too darn lazy to work to go to work. Clean up Congress who sets term limits for everyone but themselves. Does anyone know what we pay to cover their butts? Their families butts, etc.
Like Hillary she bought a big old house in NY. She has a guest house which she RENTS out to the Secret Service to protect her ass. We the taxpayers are the ones who are paying the Secret Service to protect her in the first place. The rich get richer and the working person gets screwed. NO BAILOUT!!!!!! Let those people get audited like they would do you and I.
We have no real savings because our money isn't isn't even safe in the bank anymore.
We wouldn't be in this position if it weren't for their "creative financing". Like writing a check knowing there's no money in your account to cover it. It's time for ALL HARDWORKING AMERICANS TO STOP LETTING THESE PRICKS KEEP SCREWING US AROUND......
9-25-2008 @ 8:12AM
dolo44 said...
The present plan proposed would be to charge AIG 12 percent interest and the government would retain 80 percent of the assets, this is not exactly a bailout. If both parties agreed not to add any other hidden or otherwise offers in the proposal. I think it should also say that no bonus would be paid out to any executives and previous bonus for the past 2 years would have to be repaid. This mess was not just created by one group, many people had there fingers in the pot and to suggest otherwise is stupid. There is enough blame to go full circle. Aside from the poor me comments there are actually some very good suggestions being offered here, maybe our representatives would be well served to read them and get some ideas of where the majority of the American people really stand.
9-25-2008 @ 8:13AM
C.J. said...
If the government is going to "give" money away, why not give it to hard working Americans? divide between us to pay off our mortgages which will help the banks. not just a select few but many banks. in return we will have that monthly payment that we can spend on other things and help ignite the economy! these companies made bad loans, bad business decisions. why must we bail them out??
9-25-2008 @ 8:15AM
Don Cadwell said...
The administration has got it all wrong and will just shift the problem elsewhere and to the next administration. An additional trillion dollars of debt willl cheapen the dollar further and cause oil to rise above $200.00 per barrel. The result will be a very long depression (not recesssion). Be prepared to see gas at $5.50-$6.00 a gallon and diesel over $6.00.
9-25-2008 @ 8:18AM
Jabo said...
You want to know the names of congressman who made this scam possible? How about Congressman Barney Frank and Senator Charley Rangel? They are the committee chairs who pushed for loans to everybody. Charley writes the tax laws and either "forget" or did not know that he was supposed to pay taxs on investment properties. They are all a bunch of gangsters and should be in jail.
9-25-2008 @ 8:23AM
Jill said...
Ok, even though this economy sucks we have to do something! If we can get money into the banks, people who have a history of actually PAYING their bills and WORKING for what they have can get a line of credit to get things that they need. If we dont do something, this wont happen and we can't grow this economy. We wont be able to buy homes, cars, refinance- nothing! Then, these wall street people should pay us all back for what we had to give to do this right away.
Bottom line VOTE REPUBLICAN! Alot of this crap had started WAY before Bush was in office- IT WAS CLINTON! Better yet- cut off welfare to ALL ABLE BODY AMERICANS who are just to lazy to work! Boy, that would bring alot of money to my paycheck each pay period!