Bernanke warned that a recession might come if the bailout plan did not pass. And as much as I like the idea of the government bailout of Wall Street -- I hate government interference in the free markets, and bailouts can encourage more bad behaviour. It is hard to get a good understanding of the cost of this Wall Street bailout plan. But I ran some numbers that I thought were interesting.
- $700 billion cost of proposed plan
- 305 million estimated number of Americans
- $2,295 estimated cost per American
- 151 million estimated workforce (excludes retirees, kids, etc.)
- $4,635 per working American
- $13.8 trillion estimated US gross domestic product
- 5.1% cost of bailout plan in one year's domestic product
- 13 days each American has to work to pay off bailout plan (5% of a year)
Considering we could be looking at a recession, and the economy normally grows 3% a year, this does not look so bad. A $700 billion dollar bailout would be equivalent to a one-year recession with a negative 2% growth rate. These calculations are a rough estimate of the impact of such a plan and gives one food for thought as to which is worse. So which would you prefer, a recession or a bailout?
Kevin Kersten is an Stock and Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and/or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 59)
9-23-2008 @ 10:52PM
Jim D said...
False choice.
What's more likely to happen is a bailout *and* a recession. Does that change your calculation?
9-23-2008 @ 10:52PM
notme said...
$4,635/13 days =45 per hr. Time to ask for a raise.
9-23-2008 @ 10:53PM
notme said...
$4,635/unemployed=13.8 trillion days days dumpster diving
9-23-2008 @ 10:54PM
Oak Okleshen said...
Congress and the financial giants got us into this mess by bending the loan rules and allowed money to be loaned to those who could not pay it back. About half of congress and all the CEO''s of the financial giants should be in prison. Each player had larceny in their hearts. Votes from the minority for the congressmen permitting them houses they could not afford, and high risk profits for the financial institutions and in some instances members of congress. The problem is it all ganged up and backfired. Now the bums want Mr. and Mrs hard working taxpayer to foot the bill while the bums line their pockets. Let them all fall on their behinds and eat some crow. They deserve it. no breaks with a bailout-none of them....
9-23-2008 @ 10:54PM
doug said...
How about the people that pays taxes and has lost there homes?
Looks like our good government really cares about em! No one bailed them out! Why bailout the banks? The banks should of had a better deal to help the people keep there homes.
$700 Billion plus Billions more for the war.
Time to replace alot of people on the top!!!
9-23-2008 @ 10:55PM
Peter said...
We will wind up getting both...additionally, a bail out induced recession will be worse.
9-23-2008 @ 10:55PM
Tim S said...
Everyone says we "have to" have it. (The Bailout) and that we may fall to nothing short of a depression if we don't get it. Maybe that is what should happen. We'd all loose what we have, but given the inability of the government to stop spending, it would indeed be justified. There is no reason to believe that their spending will stop and put us into financial oblivian later. This is nothing more than a Band-Aid on a deep cut that requires stitches. This is delaying pain.
9-23-2008 @ 10:56PM
BIGRIG said...
ok,so the taxpayer bails out the jerks on wall street.then it would seem right that since i am now an invester in this stupid scheme,i will take a tax loss when i file my income tax return.how about it?
9-23-2008 @ 11:09PM
Jess said...
This whole bail out plan will in fact not be in the best interest in the public its for the big corprate investors who have their hand in politics and investing, they use both sources for what their tryin to do,The economy will NOT balance out without us falling back under into a depression weve spent to much money to fast. Never the less The U.S government should NOT interfere in the free trade as it should not be in religion, both it does corrupt.
9-24-2008 @ 8:21AM
Gary said...
No one is to blame except the Democratic Congress that set up Fannie and Freddie and the Clinton Administration that pushed to lessen the requirements for loans. This helped those who could not afford a home by not requiring down payments, credit checks, credit history, or a work history. What do you expect? Now Shumer and others in Congress want us to bail out these people who can't afford a house to begin with. I say launch a major investigation of how all this happened. The Dems and some Repubs will run for shelter. It makes me sick to hear Dodd and Obama acting so righteous when they are up to this mess to their hairline.
9-24-2008 @ 8:22AM
QuasiVeblem said...
That s it!
The 'theory' of the leisure class is tapdancing on vast but confused layers of neurons of the mass, again!
Its ramifications will reverberate to four corners of the globe for sure and FYI, by the way , that Brooklyn bridge is back in escrow again , last week , thanks to some 'newly-found' sources of creative financing. What a relief ;)-
And our model minority daughters and sons still can get in these Ivy League schools after few phone calls, can t they?
9-24-2008 @ 8:22AM
JR said...
Anyone who loses their home because they can't afford it has only themselves to blame. I don't want them to lose their homes, but let's don't shift the responsibility for their payments to bystanders. As for the $4,635 figure, that is an average. If you earn more than average, or have fewer than average deductions, then you will pay far more.
9-24-2008 @ 8:23AM
undrgrndgirl said...
tell ya what, kevin, since you seem to be so happy with paying your $4,635.00 why don't you pay mine, too...'cos I DON'T HAVE IT...and IF i did, I'd surely use it to, i don't know, buy FOOD !!
9-24-2008 @ 8:23AM
Arnold said...
Hopefully not this time, but eventually we're going to have to experience a full-blown depression to force us into killing many of the "entitlements" that let people enjoy a middle class existence while hardly ever holding a job. For once I'd like to buy groceries without being in line behind a well-dressed customer who whips out that food-stamp card which means I'm helping buy his/her groceries along with mine. Now I find out that the dems pressured Fannie Mae to approve mortgage loans to people with bad credit, spotty work history and precious little income aside from their FREE housing voucher, FREE food stamps, FREE welfare check, FREE earned income tax credit (that's a $4-6 thousand bonus for condescending to work a few months each year, etc.
9-24-2008 @ 8:23AM
Shapiro said...
This whole proposed scenario sounds like socalisim to me.
9-24-2008 @ 8:24AM
maria barrett said...
Instead of giving the banks the money...give each of the taxpayers the 4600 and then the economy will take care of itself!!!!
9-24-2008 @ 8:24AM
william said...
We should go back 3 years and make all employees of this bail out pay back all bonus money, shares and stocks. All key people involves including congressmen should be jailed, loose everything they own and pay a huge fine and loose their retirement benefits. No one bailed me out when I lost my home and belongings.These big shots walk away millionaires and let us pay......enough
9-24-2008 @ 8:25AM
B said...
[quote]$4,635 per working American
13 days each American has to work to pay off bailout plan (5% of a year)[/quote]
I'm sorry, why do you assume MOST working American's make $4,635 in 13 days?
That's $300+ dollars a day, most American's don't make that, you might make that, but most don't.
Take out those executive bonuses these men think they deserve, and the cost SHOULD go down, especially if they take the bonuses they've already received and use those to help pay down the debt.
it's one thing to pay down a true debt, quite another to pay down debt that includes hundreds of thousands of dollars in bonuses.
9-24-2008 @ 8:25AM
mike said...
To number 15 Freddie and Fannie loosened up their requirements in May 2005 .Was Bush not the one to happen?
9-24-2008 @ 8:40AM
Kevin Kersten said...
Good points people. We could easily get both on yes this is an over simplificaton. I like #22 marias comment if we just give money to the tax payers it might be better. #24 B that is a gross figure. That $354 a day is what each of us earn for our country before empoyers take out things like taxes or pays for the benefits you enjoy.