BusinessWeek offers an excellent critique of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's $700 billion plan to conduct a reverse auction of $13 trillion in financial toxic waste. But more importantly, it proposes a solution that could be just what we need to solve the problem -- recapitalizing the strongest banks and letting the weakest merge or fail. As I posted, such a strategy would not only solve the real problem -- a lack of capital -- but it would give taxpayers an equity stake in those banks. And that stake might be sold at a profit in a future economic recovery, helping us recoup our investment in this plan.
What exactly is the problem? Too much financial toxic waste and not enough capital to back it up. More specifically, financial institutions (FIs) holding the $13 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDSs) only have about $340 billion in capital. So a 2.6% decline in the value of that toxic waste wipes out their capital. To estimate how much capital it would cost these FIs to write that down, I will assume that have already partially written it down -- to 60 cents on the dollar -- or $7.8 trillion. If its market value is even lower, say 20 cents, they would need to take a $3.1 trillion write-down to mark it to market -- leaving FIs with a capital deficit of $2.8 trillion ($3.1 trillion minus $340 billion).
Paulson's plan is deeply flawed since the reverse auctions -- which reward the FI willing to sell its toxic waste for the lowest price -- will either add misery to FIs or taxpayers. The FIs that sell toxic waste that's on their books at 60 cents on the dollar for, say, 20 cents on the dollar will be required to take a 40 cent loss. This will deplete their capital as I illustrated above and they will not be able to raise more.
If Paulson bids 60 cents or more for the toxic waste, then the taxpayers take a loss. Moreover, if you throw in the proposal to limit the pay of executives whose companies take our money, you create even lower odds that the plan will work. Only the most desperate CEO would agree to take government money and accept a huge pay cut in the bargain. But the worst part of this, as BusinessWeek suggests, is that Paulson's plan creates zombie FIs that survive with too little capital to operate effectively
That's why BusinessWeek's solution is so much better. It would decide which FIs are worth saving and which are not. Then it would inject capital into the strongest FIs and encourage merger or liquidation of the weakest ones. This worked well in Sweden in the early 1990s. The architect of the plan noted that it works at both the financial market and political level. "If you're taking all of the downside, you need to have some upside. That is what the man on the street would say," BusinessWeek quoted Lars H. Thunell, who ran the company which took over Sweden's problem FIs.
There are big questions that would need to be answered to put the BusinessWeek plan into effect. Which FIs are the survivors? How much capital would they need to ensure their soundness and restore confidence to the financial system? Which of the weaker FIs could struggle along on their own? Which would need to find merger partners and who would be strong enough to acquire them? Which FIs would need to liquidate?
For those who feel concerned about the government picking winners and losers, it's too late. In the last six months, the Administration has taken an active role in deciding which FIs were too big to fail (e.g., Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE)) and which weren't (e.g., Lehman Brothers).
In this period of turmoil, it's OK to try something, realize it's a bad idea, and come up with a better plan. Given the scale of the problem, it is better to take more time to put in place a solution that will actually work rather than to rush headlong into one that won't.
BusinessWeek's plan looks like it's worth a try.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
9-25-2008 @ 9:19AM
Bobby said...
BW has it right. The government can recapitalize the FI's by buying new preferred stock and warrants. Let them keep the (bad) loans on their books and work them out in an orderly manner and take losses as the loans are repaid, or written down.
There should also be a provision for assistance for owner occupied residences, restructuring, extending terms, adjusting rates, etc. but should only be for single family owner occupied residences, not for speculative investments.
9-25-2008 @ 10:17AM
Terri said...
Bobby: I agree with what you said. Why isn't any one listening? Restructuring loans, terms, etc. for the single family home owner is the right way to go....
Pressure should be put on lenders...by the federal government to accomplish this.
Why hasn't one of the Presidential candidates focused on this?
Congress? What do we have to do to bring this to their attention?
9-25-2008 @ 10:10AM
hank said...
I'm in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in a 'We Deserve It' dividend. To make the math simple, let's assume there are 200,000,000 bona fide U.S. citizens, aged 18+.Our population is about 301 million counting every man, woman , and child So, 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up. Now, divide 200 million, 18+ adults into $85 billion - that equals $425,000.00 each!
Yes, my plan is to give that $425,000 to every adult as a 'We Deserve It' dividend. Of course, it would NOT be tax free. So, let's assume a tax rate of 30%. Everyone would pay $127,500.00 in taxes. That sends $25.5 billion right back to Uncle Sam! It also means that every adult 18+ has $297,500.00 in their pocket. A husband and wife would have $595,000.00!What would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00?· Pay off your mortgage - housing crisis solved· Repay college loans - what a great boost to new grads· Put away money for college - it'll really be there· Save in a bank - create money to loan to entrepreneurs· Buy a new car - create jobs· Invest in the market - capital drives growth· Pay for your parent's medical insurance - health care improves· Enable Deadbeat Parents to come clean - or else Remember this is for every adult US. citizen, 18 and older (including the folks who lost their jobs at Lehmann Brothers and every other company that is cutting back) and of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces. If we're going to do an $85 billion bailout, let's bail out every adult U.S. citizen!!As for AIG - liquidate it. · Sell off its parts. · Let American General go back to being American General.· Sell off the real estate. · Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up. We deserve the money and AIG doesn't. Sure it's a crazy idea, but can you imagine the coast-to-coast block party?!How do you spell Economic Boom? W-e D-e-s-e-r-v-e I-t d-i-v-i-d-e-n-d! I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the $85 Billion 'We Deserve It' dividend more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington, D.C..And remember, The plan only really costs $59.5 billion because $25.5 billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.
9-25-2008 @ 10:18AM
Terri Ferreira said...
Hank....you said it all. This is the real "We Deserve It" dividend of all time.
The Feds should start cutting checks for delivery by December lst.
9-25-2008 @ 10:48AM
RE broker said...
Hank, I must say I like your math...however it's a few 0's off!!
How about taking the $700B (and all other funds that will inevitably be approved for this and/or similar purposes) and dividing it equally into every tax payers retirement accounts (if you don't have a retirement account, get one). as it looks like the initial payout to the American tax payor(s) would be about $5,200.00 each. The(se) dollars MUST stay in American tax payor(s) retirement account(s), placed ONLY in American owned and operated banks, and can ONLY be invested (by the banks) in wholly owned and operated American company(s) that employ ONLY tax paying American citizens.
NOTE: We will have get used to being a balanced manufacturing/service based economy again, one that PRIMARILY NOT EXCLUSIVELY produces and consumes it's own products. Sorry this fantasy of not manufacturing anything and letting others do the low wage work (manufacturing) so we can indulge ourselves with low cost products, and in return we get to have only high paying hi-tech jobs, and provide the world economy with financial support services only, was an ill conceived fantasy has turned into our nightmare!
Under this plan we accomplish several goals.
First, we acknowlege that we need to get back to a balanced manufacturing/service based economy that really works.
Second, we acknowledge that we need to have more equity invested into our economy by saving and investing and not just spending every last penny we make on payday! This bailout money MUST only be used for investing in America, and not spent on crap we imported from other countries. Remember the $300.00 check we just got to spend any which way we want, we can't do that again!
Third, the banks get the liquidity they claim to need, and the tax payors get something to counteract the inflation we are about to create.
This is a very simple plan of manufacturing and consuming our own products, which will allow the service industry(s) to flourish, and for us to collectively and safely have the financial resources to provide for ourselves with the education and proper health care we desire.
The part of all this plan some Americans are NOT going to like is having to give up the "etitlement" attitude (greed and lazyness). This attitute and the politicians who pandered to it, along with the citizens who allowed it to flourish (which in one form or another is ALL of us), is the very core reason we are in this position. If we have the courage to let go of our fears and embrace our faith in society, we can and will overcome.
The ulternative is to continue down this path headlong into the financial and social ruin of our great nation, with the end result being poverty and suffering for all.
Consider all we have been through as a nation and look at the results of our decisions. Forget the politics, and let go of the blame.
9-25-2008 @ 10:48AM
ynot said...
Hank, 85 billion divided by 200 million = 425 dollars per person and a whopping 900 dollars per couple. Wow. I'll pay off my house with that massive amount. People think for yourselves and don't just read and believe. Exercise that brain that fills the gap between your ears. America the beautiful, too lazy to work and too lazy to think. Now you know why government has so easily screwed this country.
9-25-2008 @ 10:59AM
w tim said...
Just pass the bill, tax payers are already in pain. Every business that goes down a tax payers lose a job and there goes another home with new issue. The fight about who's wrong is in the way. The fight to be rite is in the way. Come together pass the bill cut putting America on hold. 700000000000 is a number a repairing number, a number to say we can fix this or get close to fixing it. The money can be allocated once it's out there , however the time is now. Tomorrow is another day and as an Americans, we learn how to fight for life; but the fight for life can come to a end then we are lost of the time we had. No one specific person will gain but the world will be one step forward in where we are going.
The key is looking ahead and not forgetting yesterday.
9-25-2008 @ 12:18PM
Forrest said...
Hank:
Right on... problem solved.. good job.
FPF
9-25-2008 @ 12:38PM
Donna said...
This sounds like a good solution but if we don't learn from our mistakes we are doomed to repeat them. Right now I worry about the kind of financial strain all of this will put on the middle class working family. If these banks know that the government is going to step in and bail them out everytime what keeps them from doing this in a year, five years, etc.. from now. We have to figure out a way to control what has happened before it begans. It seems like all of capitol hill has had their heads in the sand. Could they not see where all of this was going a year ago?
9-25-2008 @ 12:57PM
Landmark said...
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9-25-2008 @ 12:59PM
meg said...
I like it. Hurry up and somehow get it to Congress and the President....after all, they don't have any ideas whatsoever!
9-25-2008 @ 1:11PM
w tim said...
There is a much bigger picture.
We wonder if the banks would do this again. NO the Government is much smarter then that, we the people sitting back wondering why, how if, when we should see that the government is doing a great job at hand, not only are they helping us out these issue of a crash but they are also taking these company from these bad dession maker. Who wants the government to come in and take there business which is worth more then what walk a way with. Think about it. CEO are losting there job, yes some are waliking awalk with money "not cool" but is a CEO really in charge or is there a votes in a company or should there be one. These people are losting there jobs also and what we should do is watch to see where these people end up at, see who money they are playing with and should we do anything about it.
9-25-2008 @ 1:27PM
RSchwaber said...
Just like the Financial institutions, Hank too fails math.
9-25-2008 @ 1:35PM
w tim said...
Look at AIG not private anymore.
PICTURE the investors and CEOs
Great Pain!
9-25-2008 @ 1:49PM
alex said...
Too bad there needs to be poor people. Who else is going to clean toilets, mow lawns, and do manual labor if they can afford to retire off the coast of Costa Rica and have some one to butler their needs? One reason true socialism will never work. The bail out is still not the answer. A recession (or correction) is needed. According to this administration we've yet to go into a recession.
9-25-2008 @ 2:16PM
Phil said...
Hank,
Unfortunately, $85,000,000,000.00 divided by 200,000,000 only equals $425.00 not $425,000.00. So I don't think your plan will work.
9-25-2008 @ 2:27PM
Choochie57 said...
Tim, If the government was much smarter than that we wouldn't find ourselves in this mess in the first place. They deregulated rules specifically set up to prevent this from happening after the Depression.
The bill they are passing says there is every possibility that we will still have a recession (which tells me they don't know there is one ongoing), continued job losses and bank closures.
Backing a bill that isn't going to fix the problem doesn't sound to smart to me.
9-25-2008 @ 2:32PM
Choochie57 said...
During the Roosevelt era, their solution to the problem (the Depression) was to create jobs and get money flowing in the economy. They paid people to dig ditches, created the WPA and TVA just to name a few. He did not bail out the big business man.
Maybe what the Bush Administration and Congress should do is go back and study what worked. Then work on fixing the problem.
I find it amazing that they say no government interference and then pick and chose who they will bailout. Sounds to me like maybe they are taking care of their best interests.
9-25-2008 @ 2:42PM
mrcb said...
If sweden did this then Paulson and Bernanke most certainly looked it it and discounted it because they saw that their plan was less flawed.
It could be that the assets must still be priced and having more banks creates a better market to do it.
9-25-2008 @ 2:47PM
Joe said...
Concentrating banking or ANY function into larger and larger entities is not good.
There is too much risk. We need many small financial institutions instead of a few that will act like a monopoly.
It's one reason the mess we are in is as big as it is. No diversity or risk.