BusinessWeek's brilliant solution to the financial mess


BusinessWeek offers an excellent critique of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's $700 billion plan to conduct a reverse auction of $13 trillion in financial toxic waste. But more importantly, it proposes a solution that could be just what we need to solve the problem -- recapitalizing the strongest banks and letting the weakest merge or fail. As I posted, such a strategy would not only solve the real problem -- a lack of capital -- but it would give taxpayers an equity stake in those banks. And that stake might be sold at a profit in a future economic recovery, helping us recoup our investment in this plan.

What exactly is the problem? Too much financial toxic waste and not enough capital to back it up. More specifically, financial institutions (FIs) holding the $13 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDSs) only have about $340 billion in capital. So a 2.6% decline in the value of that toxic waste wipes out their capital. To estimate how much capital it would cost these FIs to write that down, I will assume that have already partially written it down -- to 60 cents on the dollar -- or $7.8 trillion. If its market value is even lower, say 20 cents, they would need to take a $3.1 trillion write-down to mark it to market -- leaving FIs with a capital deficit of $2.8 trillion ($3.1 trillion minus $340 billion).

Paulson's plan is deeply flawed since the reverse auctions -- which reward the FI willing to sell its toxic waste for the lowest price -- will either add misery to FIs or taxpayers. The FIs that sell toxic waste that's on their books at 60 cents on the dollar for, say, 20 cents on the dollar will be required to take a 40 cent loss. This will deplete their capital as I illustrated above and they will not be able to raise more.

If Paulson bids 60 cents or more for the toxic waste, then the taxpayers take a loss. Moreover, if you throw in the proposal to limit the pay of executives whose companies take our money, you create even lower odds that the plan will work. Only the most desperate CEO would agree to take government money and accept a huge pay cut in the bargain. But the worst part of this, as BusinessWeek suggests, is that Paulson's plan creates zombie FIs that survive with too little capital to operate effectively

That's why BusinessWeek's solution is so much better. It would decide which FIs are worth saving and which are not. Then it would inject capital into the strongest FIs and encourage merger or liquidation of the weakest ones. This worked well in Sweden in the early 1990s. The architect of the plan noted that it works at both the financial market and political level. "If you're taking all of the downside, you need to have some upside. That is what the man on the street would say," BusinessWeek quoted Lars H. Thunell, who ran the company which took over Sweden's problem FIs.

There are big questions that would need to be answered to put the BusinessWeek plan into effect. Which FIs are the survivors? How much capital would they need to ensure their soundness and restore confidence to the financial system? Which of the weaker FIs could struggle along on their own? Which would need to find merger partners and who would be strong enough to acquire them? Which FIs would need to liquidate?

For those who feel concerned about the government picking winners and losers, it's too late. In the last six months, the Administration has taken an active role in deciding which FIs were too big to fail (e.g., Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE)) and which weren't (e.g., Lehman Brothers).

In this period of turmoil, it's OK to try something, realize it's a bad idea, and come up with a better plan. Given the scale of the problem, it is better to take more time to put in place a solution that will actually work rather than to rush headlong into one that won't.

BusinessWeek's plan looks like it's worth a try.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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