BusinessWeek offers an excellent critique of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's $700 billion plan to conduct a reverse auction of $13 trillion in financial toxic waste. But more importantly, it proposes a solution that could be just what we need to solve the problem -- recapitalizing the strongest banks and letting the weakest merge or fail. As I posted, such a strategy would not only solve the real problem -- a lack of capital -- but it would give taxpayers an equity stake in those banks. And that stake might be sold at a profit in a future economic recovery, helping us recoup our investment in this plan.
What exactly is the problem? Too much financial toxic waste and not enough capital to back it up. More specifically, financial institutions (FIs) holding the $13 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDSs) only have about $340 billion in capital. So a 2.6% decline in the value of that toxic waste wipes out their capital. To estimate how much capital it would cost these FIs to write that down, I will assume that have already partially written it down -- to 60 cents on the dollar -- or $7.8 trillion. If its market value is even lower, say 20 cents, they would need to take a $3.1 trillion write-down to mark it to market -- leaving FIs with a capital deficit of $2.8 trillion ($3.1 trillion minus $340 billion).
Paulson's plan is deeply flawed since the reverse auctions -- which reward the FI willing to sell its toxic waste for the lowest price -- will either add misery to FIs or taxpayers. The FIs that sell toxic waste that's on their books at 60 cents on the dollar for, say, 20 cents on the dollar will be required to take a 40 cent loss. This will deplete their capital as I illustrated above and they will not be able to raise more.
If Paulson bids 60 cents or more for the toxic waste, then the taxpayers take a loss. Moreover, if you throw in the proposal to limit the pay of executives whose companies take our money, you create even lower odds that the plan will work. Only the most desperate CEO would agree to take government money and accept a huge pay cut in the bargain. But the worst part of this, as BusinessWeek suggests, is that Paulson's plan creates zombie FIs that survive with too little capital to operate effectively
That's why BusinessWeek's solution is so much better. It would decide which FIs are worth saving and which are not. Then it would inject capital into the strongest FIs and encourage merger or liquidation of the weakest ones. This worked well in Sweden in the early 1990s. The architect of the plan noted that it works at both the financial market and political level. "If you're taking all of the downside, you need to have some upside. That is what the man on the street would say," BusinessWeek quoted Lars H. Thunell, who ran the company which took over Sweden's problem FIs.
There are big questions that would need to be answered to put the BusinessWeek plan into effect. Which FIs are the survivors? How much capital would they need to ensure their soundness and restore confidence to the financial system? Which of the weaker FIs could struggle along on their own? Which would need to find merger partners and who would be strong enough to acquire them? Which FIs would need to liquidate?
For those who feel concerned about the government picking winners and losers, it's too late. In the last six months, the Administration has taken an active role in deciding which FIs were too big to fail (e.g., Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE)) and which weren't (e.g., Lehman Brothers).
In this period of turmoil, it's OK to try something, realize it's a bad idea, and come up with a better plan. Given the scale of the problem, it is better to take more time to put in place a solution that will actually work rather than to rush headlong into one that won't.
BusinessWeek's plan looks like it's worth a try.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.
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Reader Comments (Page 2 of 2)
9-25-2008 @ 3:09PM
Dan said...
Unfortunately, congress set the FNMA & Freddie MAc lending guidelines. If govt sets the lending guidelines, they are responsible for the bad loans.
9-25-2008 @ 3:31PM
brandon said...
http://www.truthout.org/article/mccain-and-pow-cover-up
9-25-2008 @ 3:41PM
Jon said...
Hank, you're an idiot.
85 billion dollars divided by 200 million is NOT 425,000 dollars.
It's 425 dollars. I can only hope and pray that you are not running a bank yourself.
9-25-2008 @ 4:40PM
turner said...
I agree with Hank's Plan
Hank for president !!!!
9-25-2008 @ 5:22PM
TMAN said...
You all must be living on the moon.
Think people.
Who is it that is formulating this bailout plan?
It is good old ,fell on his head, and now is in la la land, prez bush, and your forever do not the right thing congress.
None of you can possibily really believe that any real sound workable plan any of you may come up with would actualy be placed as the end result by all those baffoons no matter how good all your ideas may be and many of you all have some good ones.
Wake up America this is your Government that is formulating this plan.
Heck I am willing to bet that the same stumble bums who caused all this mess will still be well rewarded.
Take notes on this post and see how much money the fat cats actualy make.
By the way that includes screaming financial commentators who own GS Stock.
Tom
9-25-2008 @ 5:57PM
bmaddigan3 said...
WOE To them, ---->>> Wall St.
The sins (PRIDE & GREED) of the fathers,
Visited Upon the children (Us)
Coupled with a Lot
of 'SELF' Exalting & DECEPTIVE practices
= our Present financial, RED/Black
HOLE...
9-25-2008 @ 6:06PM
Madan said...
Being one of the Richest nation in the world, In my opinion the following two should solve the problem.
a) Request every Multi Billionaire ($ 5 Billion and above) a percentage of there assets as charity to Economic crisis, and give them a Tax Break.
b) Confiscate the assets of all the CEO's, CFO's, Senior Management and there Peers representing them who have benefited Legally/Financially of all the major publicly owned stock holder corporations that they have caused failures/put in bankruptcy, especially in span of last 15 years, for there is no reason to protect them, when they have done unrecoverable damage to common citizen. For with todays sophisticated technology, these greedy Senior management individuals could have prevented this crisis BUT instead have manipulated, cheated in unethical manner and taken advantage with golden Parachute that they just do not deserve. Some individual in Media should really analiyze and trace the Senior Managements assets drawn/distributed by fraudelent means and have left the corporations broke, and common individual with loss of hard earned assets. Shame! Shame! Educated Senior Management who lack the Basic 101 of running a Business.
9-25-2008 @ 8:33PM
Esteban said...
Hi!
If government implement measurements for those who without any doubt will have to go bankrupt and loose their houses because they can not afford their actual payments, the solution might be to somehow extend the term of those loans to bring the payments down, making the note more affordable.
Example:
$300,000.00 mortgage at 6.9% 30 years, the payment is $ 1975.00. If that note is renew at 6% for 60 years the new payment will be $ 1579.21, which represents a savings to the homeowner of $ 395.75 per month. If the actual lender then decides to procure payment for only 80% of the note at the same rate and term this will represent a payment of only $ 1263.37 per month representing a monthly savings of $ 711.63 for that consumer, opening a window of opportunity for the mortgagor, This will make the note more affordable and can be a balloon note for at least 5 to 10 years.Until the economy is more sound. The 20% of the note that wont be factor it in the payment, meaning in moratorium, that is not being repay, should be part of the stimulus package that is being proposed by the government and loaned to those entities that are in the bring of failing due to the situation created by them. This Means that instead of expending 700 billions for a bail out, they will received a loan advance to cover the unused 20% from which they are not making money. According to their figures $700 billions X 20% is = $ 140 Billions so they can reinvest in new profitable ventures to assure growth.
Notice that the consumer after 5 or 10 years will still owed the original $ 300,000.00 from which at maturity the government will received the 20% outstanding debt, back from the lender, and the lender the balance after the loan amortization.
Also notice that the borrower should pay the government a monthly mortgage insurance that could be determine with the same standards already in place, to assure income to the taxpayer from such
bail-out.
This loans should be kept by the actual mortgagee. They should be refinance with full documentation, and only to those owners than can proof they will qualify under these guidelines.
I believe that the problem that was created it was because people where put into loans that they could not afford to make the monthly payments. As long as they are secure with real property and the borrowers make the new payment, the loan will not be bad paper and can be marketable. They said that greed was the cause of this fiasco, therefore this is not a time for being greedy and even though they will not make a lot of money on interest payments for the next few years, the proposed solution is better than nothing.
9-25-2008 @ 9:27PM
'WHEELS' said...
I'm fairly innocent to the current crisis but read he phrase: "lack of capital" and/or: "need to recapitalize" in the B/W brilliant solution.
I've only one comment: If we had not allowed what I consider the rape of the stock market by those taking daily and multi-daily profits from daily/hourly stock-price fluctuations, there might be some "cream" left in the system (where it belongs, I might add, by design.) to be used for venture/capital/recapital. Now, the only question remains that if that "cream were still in the system, would the B.O.D.s "blow it" by giving it in incentive packages to already over (obscene!) compensated top management who, to protect themselves over compensate subordinates. I've been concerned about this for years.
9-25-2008 @ 10:12PM
w tim said...
This Wall Street bailout and over publicized justifications are unnecessary and outragious . If people had good common sense about Wall Street and tax payers, they would know that the two are one. Tax payers go to work, invest in stocks at work and on Wall Street Firms. Why speak about saving tax payers and not caring about the demise of Wall Street as they are one of the same. The general public did not go to Wall Street to obtain their mortgages; the general public went to small time mortgage brokers who represented banks. The banks did not make bad loans, the banks drafted unrealistic projections for potential customers to qualify for mortgages. We need to pass this bill, draft a legitimate, accountability based application process which not only holds the institution responsible and liable, but the underwriters and administrators at fault.
10-10-2008 @ 5:48PM
Bob said...
Although I do not believe that any of government’s actions during the last 10-15 years have been in the best interest of the majority of US Citizens, I know that such an opinion no longer matters, the general public must be considered at this point in our Country’s history.
If our elected officials are considering a plan to honestly serve "the people", they must change the mark to market accounting; refinance every existing residential mortgage in the US, with back-ended payments for 24 months; order all consumer credit companies to charge only 7% or 8% interest on credit card balances for two years. The suggestion by the SEC that changing the mark to market valuation is also needed.
Remember: President Nixon did price and wage control. I would write to our President, but there is now no need to attempt such a task.
I am sorry that our Government is behaving this way.
Yours truly,
Bob Skakandy