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Will the Paulson plan make money? Don't forget where we're getting the cash!

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The latest trend among pundits who want to look like they know what they're talking about is to assert boldly that the Fed's $700 billion purchase of dodgy mortgage assets no one understands or wants poses no risk to taxpayers and will surely make us money!

In an op-ed piece (subscription required) for The Wall Street Journal, Andy Kessler asserts that "My analysis suggests that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (a former investment banker, no less, not a trader) may pull off the mother of all trades, which could net a trillion dollars and maybe as much as $2.2 trillion -- yes, with a "t" -- for the United States Treasury."

I don't understand why, if that's true, Warren Buffett, George Soros, Wilbur Ross and Carlos Slim aren't diving in to make a bailout unnecessary. Warren's a nice guy, but I don't think he's passing on all those profits to taxpayers out of the goodness of his heart. Take the hint: taxpayers are not going to get rich paying artificially high prices for assets that the best investors in the world won't touch with a ten-foot pole.

Another thing to remember: we're buying the $700 billion in crap securities on the margin. We're borrowing the money because our federal government doesn't have enough cash to bail out a Subway franchisee without hitting up the debt markets. So any calculation about what kind of return we'll earn needs to include the hundreds of billions of dollars in interest we'll be paying for the privilege of buying those assets.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 05:07 AM

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