TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says without the Paulson plan, every component is in trouble. Let's take a look. Without the Paulson plan, or if the plan is so watered down and delayed, I have been saying all bets are off and we could be in for a huge swoon. How huge?
I like to sit down and noodle on the actual components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to give you a real sense of what can go wrong. And there is so much going wrong. The credit markets are vanishing, the earnings are vanishing and the only hope is a plan that ignites credit markets, forces money off the sidelines and gets this economy and the worldwide economy moving again.
Not long ago, I postulated that this market is literally repealing all of the moves since the Brazil-Russia-India-China emergence that gave us better markets to sell into than just the U.S. With the collapse of Chinese growth -- they have simply ceased to be importers since the summer -- the inflation in India, the war in Russia and a U.S.-led slowdown in Brazil (although that remains a robust market) BRIC is more like having a brick around your neck than a wind at your back.
Meanwhile, the peak in energy and the collapse of the financial system have left both of those groups in disarray with valuations simply too difficult to pin down, so you retreat to worst-case scenarios where you can at least find some terra firma -- mainly where stocks were last time things were this bad.
Given that most of these companies bought back stock at high prices and issued stock to executives, the actual value of the buybacks seems almost nonexistent, so the value that was created since those hard times is hard to see.
Finally, in a recession like we are having, one can only guess how badly the consumer will be scalded. This list of prices is about a scalded consumer.
I don't want to bury the punchline, but when you add these worst-case prices together you get Dow Jones 8378, which, reluctantly, I admit is where we are going if everything fails with the plan and the economies here and worldwide are left to their own devices.
Let's run through the Dow 30.
1. Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take) can retreat back to $43 where it started both before the housing boom and before the energy boom and before BRIC became a dominant force. All of its markets will be challenged with housing downturns worldwide and energy prices retreating from highs, something that I think will happen as economies slow.
2. Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) -- $14. This is where it traded before the short-selling rules were created on July 15, and this is where it is going without a financing and a big investment. It might not stop there if there is no relief at all. I am really bearish on this stock without a plan.
3. Du Pont (NYSE: DD) (Cramer's Take) has a lot of businesses that are less cyclical than people think and a safe dividend. I would be surprised if it went much below $40, where I would like to buy it.
4. American Express (NYSE: AXP) (Cramer's Take) has turned into a terrible lender with a product that is viewed as something that is no longer indispensable, courtesy of great marketing by MasterCard (NYSE: MA) (Cramer's Take) and Visa (NYSE: V) (Cramer's Take). This stock's headed to $31, maybe lower, as it is really a weak sister in the Dow now.
5. Disney (NYSE: DIS) (Cramer's Take) traded at $25 when people thought there was nothing to it other than a declining advertising business and an expensive group of theme parks. This is a company I will buy for Action Alerts PLUS if it hits that downside target.
6. United Technologies (UTX) (Cramer's Take) is a BRIC derivative for certain with too much aerospace and a defense business that could be hurt by an Obama election. Knock it back to $51, which would be a repeal of the whole BRIC move.
7. Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) (Cramer's Take) talked recently about how it is not immune from a retail sales slowdown; when it did, the stock retreated to about $48, where it would surely be headed again.
8. 3M (NYSE: MMM) (Cramer's Take) is a play on worldwide growth in a number of industrial areas, and worldwide growth is on the decline beyond what this fine firm is ready for. It could have a huge decline in earnings, and I am putting it at $50.
9. General Motors (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take), without a plan and without a handle on Delphi and on the right kind of cars, will burn through the bailout money quickly and disappear. Yes, it goes bankrupt. Stocks don't get down to where they are like this one if something hasn't become out of control. This one's out of control.
10. General Electric (NYSE: GE) (Cramer's Take) -- I think it could trade down to $20. The decision to end the buyback, which was just wasting a gigantic amount of money, is now behind them, so all it would have to contend with is lower earnings and a less turbo-charged report.
11. McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) (Cramer's Take): This one's going to suffer for pennies by a stronger dollar, but not much more, and it just boosted the dividend. I think it would be a gift below $57.
12. Home Depot (NYSE: HD) (Cramer's Take) retreats to where it was on that July 15 low, $21, where it finds buyers for that dividend.
13. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take): With the plan, this is the biggest winner in the Dow. Without the plan? Sorry, it revisits the low of July 15 as it has to get rid of these bad mortgages it is stocked with. Target is $18.
14. Chevron (NYSE: CVX) (Cramer's Take): This is a slow-growth company with decent oil assets that would quickly go down to where its dividend made it compelling. Call it $54 as in a falling-oil environment -- perhaps down to $70. You will see price/earnings shrinkage continuing.
15. Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) (Cramer's Take): This company's acquisition of EDS is going to work and help numbers for years, but the stock will still have to revisit at least its recent lows on fears of a worldwide tech slowdown; call it $41.
16. JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take): This company keeps doing everything right, but the plan would make this the best bank on earth other than Bank of America. Without the plan, it goes to its July 15 low of $31.
17. Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) (Cramer's Take): Here's a company that can only make more money by firing people, which is a good strategy until you run out of people. Still, the dividend is safe for at least another two years, so I think the stock stays at $18.
18. Kraft (NYSE: KFT) (Cramer's Take): A food company that is getting better run is nothing to rave about, but this new addition to the Dow sure beats the disastrous run AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) has had. I think it can drop a couple to $30 but not go much below that because it is so defensive.
19. Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take) is a great mystery. During the great 21st-century commodity boom that saw Phelps Dodge and Alcan disappear, this homely little aluminum company has done nothing! Now it is free to go to $19, as the boom is totally over.
20. Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) (Cramer's Take) is a super stock. Well managed, great earnings, good pipeline, I think it goes up a couple from here.
21. Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take): Here's one that could get cut in half if the strike doesn't settle and the airlines around the world contract. It could go as low as $24. It's one of the most vulnerable stocks in the Dow because of its clients' stress and voracious need for hard-to-get capital.
22. Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) (Cramer's Take) retreats back to where it was during the last tech recession -- $13. Think of it this way: It bought back a lot of stock. That money was wasted.
23. AT&T (NYSE: T) (Cramer's Take) faces landline challenges and corporate weakness. In a disaster scenario, it could lose a third of its value. Call it $21. I only say that because look at what the competition, outfits like Qwest (NYSE: Q) (Cramer's Take) and Winstar are selling for with slackened to no growth. Bad geographies. At the bottom, there will be a lot of fretting about the dividend.
24. Verizon (NYSE: VZ) (Cramer's Take) needs more phone lines, more frivolous texters and photo-senders and a heck of a lot of clients for FiOS. None is likely to happen in this environment. I could see the stock retreat back to $26. It didn't help that they bought Alltel ... for now. Same dividend worries as above.
25. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) (Cramer's Take) is like Intel. Bought back a lot of stock. Nothing to show for it, and it now goes to $21.
26. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take) either stays the same or goes up, because that's where everyone will shop -- they'll all be trading down in retail.
27. Merck (NYSE: MRK) (Cramer's Take) is pretty much where it is going to go. It's a challenged company with safe yield. $31.
28. IBM (NYSE: IBM) (Cramer's Take) could be facing a huge headwind of global recession, and I think that its business is far more economically sensitive than people realize. It could lose as much as 50 points -- it used to be that low for a long time -- sending it to $60. This and Boeing are probably the two most severe cuts, and the ones I am most likely going to be too pessimistic about if things get a little better.
29. Procter (NYSE: PG) (Cramer's Take) stays at $68 or goes a little lower, not much. The company is set up to win in this environment.
30. Exxon (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take): If you repeal the whole oil boom, which is what will happen in a worldwide recession or worse, Exxon's failed buyback strategy will be revealed for what it was: a giant money pit. The stock could retreat to $57, as it has minimal dividend support.
-------------------------
RELATED LINKS:
Cramer: Dow's Most Bearish Scenario
Bailout Talks Break Down
-------------------------
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long GE, Wal-Mart, Procter & Gamble, JPMorgan and Hewlett-Packard.
Facebook's IPO Debacle, Day 3: Un-Friended and Dis-Liked on Wall…
Former Olympic Rower Turned to Minimalism to Pay Down $82,000 in Debt


Reader Comments (Page 2 of 2)
9-26-2008 @ 1:15PM
Po Campo said...
What bothers me most is Jim you are asking each of us to suspend the ideas you have been preaching and what you have filled your books with. The importance of Fundementals....Homework....Due Diligence....How does it look on the books...Earnings, PE........What I would like to do is your homework than tell me its a good investment for the American People......or are we just shorting the public.........
9-26-2008 @ 1:15PM
nick said...
Let her go. If this will knock down some of these CEO'S let it go. The run up of housing has been a sin. And those six figure sub prime loans coming due in the next few years let these bums go. The folks down here in small town American have ot problem seeing the high rollers take a bath. From folks I know in the market tell me about the guys on Wall Street laugh their ass off when the market closes and they head to the bars or out to Long Island to their seven figure houses. Us poor Christians are fodder for alot of JEWS who control the market. As they say you can hide but you can't fool the folks out here.
9-26-2008 @ 4:41PM
Ray said...
Jim - appreciate your interest in exposing the depth of the problem assuming we agree on how we arrived at this point in time. Our finanical system is busted and our leaders in Congress are without a clue as to what to do next except continue spending on many meaningless projects. Let the Sec. Treas at least make an effort to change the direction, no one else seems to have a better solution.
9-26-2008 @ 2:18PM
NICK said...
Crammer if the market get's to bad you can get Obama, your buddy to give you a job at the WHITEHOUSE, I think your CEO at GE could pull some strings. The head usher would be a good job.
9-26-2008 @ 2:49PM
Bruce Wilhite said...
8000? Under President Obama, the market will drop much lower than that. The Democrats are planning trials. And the smart money will leave while it can.
9-26-2008 @ 4:11PM
Ken said...
More nonsense from the robber baron apologist.
The "free market" has been allowed to hide it's failings in "accounting rules". If I try to sell an obvously known faulty product, I'd be sued in a heartbeat.
Yet the calamity we are witnessing was caused by false advertising. False advertising to the people sucked into loans they couldn't pay, false advertising to the people who bought these rated securities packages, and false advertising by hiding mountains of bad debt through accounting trickery.
And what's Kramers' answer? That I pay for their largess. So his "assets" are protected. The upper classes should be supported by the middle and low alike. Asking a person who has to decide between food, medicine, or gas to pay for the mistakes of people who have to decide between a vacation in Cancun or London isn't just sickening, it should spark a revolution.
9-26-2008 @ 4:14PM
John said...
Jim Cramer is an idiot and shouldn't be giving out his typical aweful advice. Obviously he is being paid by the big guys. Look at his past record on how he kept saying everything would be fine and now he's telling us to take the bailout? Crazy advice- let the banks get sold and the markets even themselves out. This is not a tax payers burdon. If your house is foreclosed on then you couldn't afford it in the first place so shame on you for trying to cheat the system.
9-26-2008 @ 5:45PM
Dennis said...
Ref Ronald Kangas
Read your history
this started during the Clinton pres
when you give FM & FM marching orders that everyone should be able to buy a home then
add greed and this is what you get
what happened to the 20 - 20 rule
I am 63 and guess what I am going to retire with enough to live conf
why save 10% Be consertive don't try to make your 1mm in 1 year
I have only some sim.. for the people that believed the mortg co when they said they could affort it
What hapended couldn't they add
Greed and stupid is the issue
try 6 grd math 1+1 still only equals 2
9-26-2008 @ 7:08PM
Rich said...
I have 75% of my funds in the market. Believe me, I would love some relief from this financial mess but, when are these Wall Street billionaires going to pay for their greed. Get a portion of the bailout from these CEO's and I would be fine with this plan. Until then, Democrats unite!
9-26-2008 @ 8:21PM
Jim said...
Fine. Let It Drop. We can't put it back together right until its completely broken so Lets Get Started.
Actually I doubt that subprime in reality is the real cause of the problem.
Please consider this:Every week people with 401K mutual funds have money taken out of their checks to go for investment.Every month at some time(usually on the same predictable date) that money is put into the market for funds specified by the employee.
The money isn't invested in those funds because the particular companies in each fund are WELL MANAGED...its put there because it HAS to go there, because the employee decided it should.(Some don't even check).
Now we have companies who's stock price is way over what they're worth with ceo's who get vast rewards for it.
The money will keep showering in every month Like Clockwork.(As much money as some small countries have for their entire economy) only to be traded upon(because of the predictability) by the big houses who have this figured out.
Now along comes Mr.employee who's ARM adjusts, cost for gas,food,medical you name it goes out of control
or worse looses his/her job.
The inputs to the markets via the mutual funds from the 401k plans which started with the little guys paycheck are cut off.(something had to give first).
What you end up with is a bunch of cash addicted big wigs who no longer have a way to get the next "FIX".
And now they would have us accept that the Gravy Train BEGINS with them and we and our grandchildren should pay retail to get on it.
No Bail Out. Lets Put this Roller Coaster To The Wind!
9-26-2008 @ 9:12PM
joe said...
GET RID OF THE PIECE SUIT GUYS
9-27-2008 @ 12:54PM
RE broker said...
Here is a novel thought for all to consider. How about we just confiscate the assets of the top 1000 WS execs. and like Robin Hood give it to the poorest 50% of Americans. Well why not!! Isn't that what WS is trying to do to us in reverse? Based on the responses I'm seeing in polls and on the all the blogs...nobody is for this bailout. And everybody feels angry and betrayed. So let's just make the masses happy by confiscating all assets over $1M from the richest 1000 corp. execs. sprinkle it liberally amongst the 50% of the poorest Americans, and let the money trickle it's way UP for a change. The economy will start to work again, and these greedy sob's will have all that money back in a few months or so anyway, and all will be forgiven and forgotten.
God Bless America and its short memory span.
Maybe WS will think twice before asking for a bailout after inititating their scam to peddle their dope* to desperate debt addicted Americans goes bad. And then arrogantly insult the American people by saying if the conditions of the bailout isn't to their liking, they won't take it. I say go stuff it!
Go try this crap in any other country and see what happens.
* The dope I'm refering to being the below market interest rates that have the effect of inticing borrowers into mortgages that they ultimately can't thereby entrapping a borrower into a fianacial situation where it would eventually be impossible to manage. These M.B.A. Wall Street types should know better.
9-27-2008 @ 2:23PM
forrest broman said...
Cramer must by crying for his Fat cat friends---not for any of us! This phony bailout is to save Bush, Paulson, Goldman Sacks and friends. There is NOTHING in it for the common taxpayer!Let it all fall, and fall fast. The markets will return to health faster once the reckless, inefficient players are sidelined!
9-27-2008 @ 10:23PM
ed1305 said...
I keep hearing it said that the bailout plan involves holding the houses in foreclosure and selling them later at a possible profit. They must live on another planet. Houses are not like canned goods that happily sit on the shelves for extended periods. Houses that sit age faster than those occupied. Any homeowner can tell you all of the little things repaired constantly., Things rust, corrode, seals dry out, gutters fill up, etc. Landscaping is history. Do you leave alarm systems operational, pay the associated phone bill, alarm company, and permit? The a/c compressor and copper are a theft problem in even occupied homes, much less in vacant homes with poor landscape maint.....have to cut the grass or the city will do it for you and charge a ton for it. You have to pay garbage whether you use it or not. I can just someone in the fed govt taking care of those details for who knows how many months. This entire plan has failure written all over it, and the market has to adjust down regardless of a bailout. They should concentrate on keeping bussiness in business by letting Freddie and Fannie go into the business of making low cost business loans. Might as well;we already own them now.
9-27-2008 @ 11:17PM
Birk said...
I'm against the $85,000,000,000.00 bailout of AIG.
Instead, I'm in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in a We Deserve It Dividend.
To make the math simple, let's assume there are 200,000,000 bonafide U.S. Citizens 18+.
Our population is about 301,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman and child. So 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up..
So divide 200 million adults 18+ into $85 billion that equals $425,000.00.
My plan is to give $425,000 to every person 18+ as a We Deserve It Dividend.
Of course, it would NOT be tax free.
So let's assume a tax rate of 30%.
Every individual 18+ has to pay $127,500.00 in taxes.
That sends $25,500,000,000 right back to Uncle Sam.
But it means that every adult 18+ has $297,500.00 in their pocket.
A husband and wife has $595,000.00.
Wh at would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00 in your family?
Pay off your mortgage - housing crisis solved.
Repay college loans - what a great boost to new grads
Put away money for college - it'll be there
Save in a bank - create money to loan to entrepreneurs.
Buy a new car - create jobs
Invest in the market - capital drives growth
Pay for your parent's medical insurance - health care improves
Enable Deadbeat Dads to come clean - or else
Remember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+ including the folks who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company that is cutting back. And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.
If we're going to re-distribute wealth let's really do it...instead of trickling out a puny $1000.00 ( 'vote buy' ) economic incentive that is being proposed
by one of our candidates for President.
If we're going to do an $85 billion bailout, let's bail out every adult U S Citizen 18+!
As for AIG - liquidate it.
Sell off its parts.
Let American General go back to being American General.
Sell off the real estate.
Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.
Here's my rationale. We deserve it and AIG doesn't.
Sure it's a crazy idea that can 'never work.'
But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party!
How do you spell Economic Boom?
I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the $85 Billion
We Deserve It Dividend more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington DC
And remember, The Birk plan only really costs $59.5 Billion because $25.5 Billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.
Ahhh...I feel so much better getting that off my chest.
Kindest personal regards,
Birk
9-28-2008 @ 5:34AM
jljamup said...
All you CRITICASTERS who are followers of uncle Jim should have been doing your homework just as he has stated many many times. this calamity has been coming for years, we are all greedy. I am prepared i have a freezer full of vegtables from my back yard garden the woods are full of rabbit squirrel and deer have plenty of guns and ammo. I am goeing to invite uncle jim to dinner.
9-29-2008 @ 12:16AM
Denise said...
Jim Kramer has been so wrong, so often, but hey who's keeping track here right???
I prefer the gritty wisdom of Gerald Celente. You people have such an "I got mine, so who cares about anyone else" attitude. I guess money cannot provide grace and character. You might want to stock up on those commodities.
Bye.
9-29-2008 @ 12:59AM
ericoverthere said...
Hey Birk,
You must have been doing FEDGOV math. 85 billion divided by 200 million does NOT equal 425,000. You added a few too many zeroes. Your plan sucks as bad as theirs does.
Birk = Fail