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100 Year Crash: How did our system get to this point?

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It seems that there is a problem with our financial system. That could be why Bear Stearns collapsed, the government took over Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) and American International Group (NYSE: AIG). This problem could also explain why Merrill Lynch sold out to Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), why Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, and why JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) bought Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM). Problems with our financial system could also explain why the Commercial Paper market is freezing up -- making it harder for companies to come up with the short-term cash to pay employees and buy inventory.

But how did our system get to this point? There are five key principles of our current financial architecture that brought us here:

  • Securitization. Up until about 30 years ago, people took out mortgages from an S&L and paid their loan officer every month until they owned their house. In the 1980s, Wall Street invented securitization -- the process of buying up, say, 1,000 mortgages from mortgage companies, creating a security based on those mortgages, paying for a AAA rating, and selling the securities to investors worldwide. Securitization is a problem for reasons I'll describe below.
  • Too much borrowing. Over the last several years, Financial Institutions (FI) have made some $2 trillion in fees from securitization, according to DealBreaker. One reason for this is that they have been able to buy these securities -- of which there are $13 trillion on the market between Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBSs) and Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) -- with a sliver of capital, roughly $340 billion. The typical FI had a ratio of assets to capital of 30:1. This meant that a mere 3% decline in the value of these securities would wipe out all the capital.
  • Skewed incentives. Bankers, ratings agencies, and consumers made decisions based on a bad system of incentives. Bankers got paid as a percentage of the size of the deals they brought in -- if they brought in a big deal and it later lost money, the bankers got to keep their multi-million bonuses. Ratings agencies competed with each other to win million dollar fees from investment banks depending on whether they would give the junkiest securities their highest, AAA, rating. And consumers -- struggling with declining incomes and rising costs -- could not resist the lure of borrowing money they could not repay -- in the case of the $1.3 trillion in subprime mortgages.
  • Lack of transparency. The MBSs and CDOs were priced by extrapolating historical patterns of mortgage repayments, delinquency rates, and home price changes into the future. When those historical patterns proved to be poor predictors of current behavior as three million borrowers foreclosed and housing prices declined 15%, there was no way to put an accurate value on the securities. In simple terms, pricing those securities would require examining each of the say, 1,000, mortgages in an MBS and identifying which mortgages are current and likely to remain so and which are not. Such basic information is simply not available to investors.
  • Global interconnection of markets. If global financial markets were not so closely intertwined, the collapse of one institution would not have such a terrible impact on the rest of the world. For example, earlier in the week a bank in Hong Kong experienced a run on the bank because of rumors that it was weakened by the collapse of Lehman Brothers. One reason the government bought AIG was that the counter-parties to its Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) were so inter-dependent that AIG's failure could have placed severe strains on many big players.

What should you do about the current situation? It depends on who you are. Check back for more posts in this series.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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Last updated: July 10, 2009: 02:08 PM

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