Asian markets give Bronx cheer to $700 billion bailout


Asian markets -- the ones that have "forced" Washington to do emergency rescue plans by Sunday night for the last several weeks -- have their verdict on the latest version of the $700 billion bailout plan. And those markets are not happy. Tokyo's Nikkei lost 1.3% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 2.1%. In addition, Asian markets don't seem to like the spread of the contagion to Europe where Belgium's Fortis needed a $16 billion government injection to stave off bankruptcy.

But the bailout plan -- dubbed Troubled Asset Relief Plan (TARP), if it passes, would give Washington political cover as it enters election season. Not only that, it would lead to a 126% increase in the national debt since 2000 -- from $5 trillion to $11.3 trillion (a dangerously high 79% of GDP). However, it is a flawed plan and as I posted, here's what I think would be a better approach:

  • Cull the banking herd. I think the banks need to be triaged – that is decide who the winners and losers are. Recapitalize the winners and force the losers to merge or close.
  • Give taxpayers equity. Make sure that the taxpayers get enough of an equity stake to have a shot a winning back their money – this could be done through the same structure used with Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) – senior preferred stock.
  • Kill the reverse auction. Buying toxic waste in a reverse auction is not likely to work – it either creates losses for the taxpayer or the bank. If the TARP buys toxic waste above the amount it is stated on the bank's books, the bank will readily sell it but that will leave the taxpayer with a loss. If TARP buys the asset below the stated value, the taxpayer might benefit but the bank will take a hit to capital – which will further weaken it since it can't raise capital.
  • Fix the short-term credit markets. There seems to be a problem with the short-term money markets. That is banks are not making short-term loans to each other and companies can't sell commercial paper (CP). There is hoarding of cash going on. TARP does nothing to address this problem. Perhaps if the government guaranteed CP – as it did with money market funds – it could get things moving again.

Still, something is probably better than nothing in this case. I happen to think that it would be better to get it right rather than fast.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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Last updated: February 09, 2012: 11:52 PM

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