If the government is finally willing to admit that we are in some deep crap and Warren Buffett is willing to make the call to arms himself, a non-Bush supporter, then the members of Congress that can't find some satisfactory compromise on the $700 billion appropriation are screwing up! I don't care if the number is a trillion dollars at this point. The money is not a give-away if it is a loan. It may be a bailout, but it is also a backstop against further erosion of our economy.
If the value of equity in the United States, all real estate, stocks, bonds, gold, you name it is worth 100 trillion dollars (wild guess) than how much do we lose if it goes down in value like it is doing now as I type. See Flash: House rejects bailout package, market dives
Every man, woman and child in the country will lose if confidence and liquidity are not propped up. How many jobs will be lost?
Think about this, if the downward spiral is not curtailed than the amount of taxes NOT collected by the Federal Government in the next year or two will be larger than the amount of the backstop the fed is trying to create now! That alone makes the deal worth doing.
Update: The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 7% of its value today. That is in just one day! How many billions of equity is that? How much did you house go down in value today? How much less secure do you feel in your job today?
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-29-2008 @ 3:52PM
JCH said...
They're numbskulls.
If they do not relent, unemployment could be 12% by Christmas.
9-29-2008 @ 4:31PM
Iridium said...
The point was that the $700 billion was a giveaway. It wasn't a loan like the republicans wanted.
The reason why we are in this mess is becuase for too long companies and people have been able to buy goods based on credit. The debt level surpassed the income level.
In the case of business many companies used stock leverage to purchase securities at hundreds of times vs true earnings. When the market dropped the value of these securites dropped below the value of the companies actual assets.
It is the fault of the credit market. A person making $250,000 a year with a 500 credit score and $100k in cash would not be able to secure a loan for $200,000. However a person making $30k with a 785 credit score could in fact get that loan.
9-29-2008 @ 4:56PM
Craig said...
Calling it a "bailout" is just wrong. It is in fact a last ditch effort to keep our economic system from falling apart, with all the chaos and heartache--and worse--with which that threatens all of us. There is plenty to be angry about, but to be angry at the attempt to save us is to blame the firemen who are attempting to put out the fire engulfing our burning house.
9-29-2008 @ 5:20PM
Shawn said...
Perhaps the government can CLOSE THE FINANCIAL MARKETS in this country for a day or two (especially easy to do since a lot of the Wall St types will be home for their Jewish holiday). Consider even closing the ATMs and credit card machines-- and declare a CASH ONLY 48 hours starting at 12:01 AM EST tonight. In other words, if you CAN'T pay for it with cash on hand, you CAN'T AFFORD IT!
If Bush had any cajones, he'd stand up to Wall St AND Main St and say, "Not one cent for whiners like you". Phil Gramm was 100% right about those who are whining about no deal when they should be CELEBRATING the saving of American freedom by the House of Representatives today! Vote for those Representatives who voted AGAINST the SELLOUT of America!
9-29-2008 @ 5:59PM
EDDIE said...
DEMOCRATS OR REBUBLICANS WE NEED A FIX
9-29-2008 @ 7:23PM
VICTOR ESPOSTO said...
A lot less of larry kudlow and malcom forbes would help alot
9-29-2008 @ 7:41PM
R said...
"How many billions of equity is that?"
None--we are largely talking gambling money. Bonds rose. Stocks of failing companies fell fast-which is WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN! You seem to think they should go up when they are tossing money away.
"How much did you house go down in value today?"
Not a penny. And unless I'm a hell-bent R.E. tycoon looking to get rich by selling my primary residence, the value of my house going down would benefit me by lowering my taxable property.
"How much less secure do you feel in your job today?"
None. As part of the working class, I'm not looking for a loan for a mcmansion, nor a $60k BMW or Hummer. I know I will always work and I've saved for a rainy day and not plunged it in stock-based 401k (which lost 20% of it's value this year alone... oops all the the prosperity of 2000-2007 evaporated in 9 months). Yeah... gotta love the new "free market" retirement plans. I'll learn new skills, i'll clean toilets--and I'll do just as good a job as some low paid immigrant. No job is beneath me like so many fellow Americans I know. I'm ready to weather the next few bad years. I'm not sure if the JPMorganers are ready.
9-29-2008 @ 7:53PM
Sheldon L said...
Ben,
Your comment leaves me concerned because so few people understand what is going on. And you do not understand the point of my story.
The DJIA represents millions of shareholders value, and most of it does not belong to the companies. When the DJIA goes down, all of those shareholders, most of them carrying the nations tax burden lose.
When they lose everyone down line on the food chain loses as well, whether they are employees, children and grand children, non-profit organizations -- everybody loses.
9-29-2008 @ 8:14PM
Ben said...
I am not saying that companies' market cap must be totally in cash, but how many companies out that really have 20 Billion real cash like msft and aapl?
When the economy is bad maybe just maybe companies who survive solely on credit really should lose some of it's "equity"?
9-29-2008 @ 8:50PM
salome said...
we have to get back on the phones,etc,as con-gress reconvenes Thursday and didn't take NO for an answer .
WE WILL continue to phone,eMail and fx until THEY STOP.
When they STOP,WE'LL STOP.
this is not a rumour,please notify all you know and post,blog the news.
thank you.
9-29-2008 @ 10:07PM
Ed said...
No wonder poor Sheldon is worried; he's ceo of an investment firm, and his clients must not be too happy right now. They might rightfully ask why he didn't recommend they sell at the 13000 level. The paper profits are imaginary until you sell them, and in the case of what we know now. they weren't really worth that then. The market IS a long term investment, but not one to just sit and idly watch. That's why we hire investment firms, Sheldon. Your remaining clients will probably be even more dissatisfied over the course of the next few months. The market will eventually settle where it belongs and begin to grow again. If it goes back up soon then sell fast!
9-29-2008 @ 10:24PM
M said...
Out of curiousity:
US is in debt in the TRILLIONS -
Can ANYONE guarantee that if the taxpayers pass this bill for a 700 billion rescue plan, that our economy will be blooming again???
Did any taxpayers get any dividends, interest, anything when these companies was making a profit???
Why did people buy such expensive homes if they knew there was a chance they could not afford to pay for it? Buy what you can afford or make do. Why should someone who doesn't know you, have any relation to you, cannot afford a home of their own bail you homeowners out???
Can the government guarantee that if this bill is approved, will the taxpayers get reimbursed eventually? Wouldn't they try to reimburse Social Security first? Don't you feel sorry thinking that in 40 years, you won't have much of security check arriving through the mail? When do you think we will be able to see some of the money? I believe NEVER.
Can the executives give some back some of their outrageous salaries and bonuses to help their own company????
Does anyone know if this bill would have been passed.... Do those executives still receive their outrageous salaries, bonuses, parachutes, etc.. ala 20 million + with the taxpayers money????????
If this bill does get passed...
All Wall Street CEO & Executives should:
1) Decrease their salaries by at least 25%
2) No bonuses unless there is a very substantial profitable year (which actually should go back to the taxpayers anyway),
3) From now on, Any and ALL shareholders (not only board members) should vote on a cap for golden parachutes or no golden parachutes until the 700 billion is repaid.
Then Shareholders will have no one else to blame, wondering where their money went?
9-29-2008 @ 10:26PM
Mar said...
Out of curiousity:
US is in debt in the TRILLIONS -
Can ANYONE guarantee that if the taxpayers pass this bill for a 700 billion rescue plan, that our economy will be blooming again???
Did any taxpayers get any dividends, interest, anything when these companies was making a profit???
Why did people buy such expensive homes if they knew there was a chance they could not afford to pay for it? Buy what you can afford or make do. Why should someone who doesn't know you, have any relation to you, cannot afford a home of their own bail you homeowners out???
Can the government guarantee that if this bill is approved, will the taxpayers get reimbursed eventually? Wouldn't they try to reimburse Social Security first? Don't you feel sorry thinking that in 40 years, you won't have much of security check arriving through the mail? When do you think we will be able to see some of the money? I believe NEVER.
Can the executives give some back some of their outrageous salaries and bonuses to help their own company????
Does anyone know if this bill would have been passed.... Do those executives still receive their outrageous salaries, bonuses, parachutes, etc.. ala 20 million + with the taxpayers money????????
If this bill does get passed...
All Wall Street CEO & Executives should:
1) Decrease their salaries by at least 25%
2) No bonuses unless there is a very substantial profitable year (which actually should go back to the taxpayers anyway),
3) From now on, Any and ALL shareholders (not only board members) should vote on a cap for golden parachutes or no golden parachutes until the 700 billion is repaid.
Then Shareholders will have no one else to blame, wondering where their money went?
9-29-2008 @ 10:29PM
Mike said...
Sure it seems, on the face of it, that the big guys on Wall Street are looking for a bailout; but that is not the real story. Congress, who aided in getting us into this mess, can now help by reinstalling confidence in our financial system. Take politics out of it - which I know seems impossible for those junkies - and lead. The investment in our banking system is for all of us. If succssful in reinvigorating economic activity, or at least stopping the downward slide, we will keep our jobs, be able to bank, buy bread, milk, cheese and meat as well as keep our retirement funds from vanishing. We will be able to send our kids to college and keep decent shelter over out heads and contibute to little league baseball. Congressional posturing today cost us over $1 trillion in lost money. The lack of leadership is telling and really killing our reputation here at home and around the world. "where have all the leaders gone...long time passing."
9-29-2008 @ 11:57PM
Iridium said...
We are burning the forest and there are a few million dollar mansions in the way. The people who live there can afford to take the loss. In the places that are burned we may build 10 smaller homes that will benefit far more people.
When the economy grows based on vapors it is natural that there will be a correction. Sometimes it is a painfull correction. The problem is that we have rewarded this entitlement mentality for so long that people believe that they have had no hand in the problem and that we can fix anything.
The bailout is not a fix for anything because it doesn't address the problem. We are better off without credit. Credit brought us the Great Depression and credit has brought us to this.
Because of ease of access to laons, college tuition skyrocketed. Because of access to health insurance, a kind of credit, health care cost skyrocketed. If people can only buy what they can afford, prices will drop like a ton of bricks. We will be much better off.
9-30-2008 @ 12:45AM
JCH said...
Ever been to Mali? With no credit, it's about to come to you. It's a wasteland.
9-30-2008 @ 1:56AM
Adb said...
The internet is a real blessing. There are so many lies coming from the "mainstream" media, which can now be cross-checked quickly. The fear mongering from the demo-c-rats in congress is a prime example. They have the numbers (no republicans needed) to pass anything they want "to save this country". They need political cover because they OWN the financial mess we are in. They had the opportunity in 2005 to avert the crisis and they voted NO. In this latest effort to "save the country" they stuffed "the solution" with pork for ACORN (Obamas baby), a prime beneficiary of the "clever" financial dealings of Freddie and Fannie -- the full info available on the net.
The financial sector may need help but NOT the political help from the democrats. They created this mess. The bailout is not a solution; it's a FRAUD to cover up a sham. That's where republicans come in. Their vote is needed to legitimize a sham. A solution is needed but NOT this one.
Mr. Liber's condescending remarks about about Ben are insulting. I wonder is Mr. Liber is an obamaton ??.
It's true millions of investors may loose out, but where was Mr. Liber and his concern in 2005 ?. Many executives deserve to go to jail for this one, and so deserve some members of congress as well.
9-30-2008 @ 3:06AM
Ben said...
"Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 7% of its value today. That is in just one day! How many billions of equity is that?"
So? If companies in the DJI have that many billions of "equity", how about this, ask them to put up 700 billion cash to save the economy so they won't go under?
Oh I forgot, those billions of "equity" only exist on paper....
9-30-2008 @ 8:57AM
andyg8180 said...
SCARE TACTICS...
Nicely done... PEople tend to over-do it with the drama sometimes... There is no reason the market had to dip that low after hearing about the failed bail-out proposal... We'll eventually get back into it...
But, until then, let the walls come crashing in on those banks... Let THEM figure it out...
Why cant they go back and change those 10% mortgages to a nice 3% mortgage as a way of saying sorry...
Screw em all... We lose jobs, so let them lose jobs...
10-01-2008 @ 11:05AM
bailbond said...
The bail out program is 700 billion dollars. That is supposed to stabilize the credit system so that banks and businesses can continue to operate. The massive injection of cash may wind up weakening the value of the dollar and we, the people, may NOT get it all back.
I recently read an idea from a retired Army officer that made some sense. He was talking about healthcare and in his arguments said:
"There are 305 million americans. What would happen if we gave each of them 1 million dollars?"
I think there'd be some partying but think of the other benefits:
- americans are in debt. 1MM would pay off most american's debt
- americans need education. 1MM would buy a lot of schooling
- americans need financial security. 1MM would buy a lot of stocks/bonds
- the housing market is faltering. 1MM would spark a lot of home improvements
or purchases and building
- auto makers are collapsing. 1MM would buy an automobile.
- 1MM would pay for healthcare.
Instead of paying 700 BB for institutions committing gross errors in judgement to make a buck, think about how muck 305 million dollars would do for the economy in terms of zeroing credit, mortgage and loan debts. Think about how many goods would be purchased with that money. Think about how many educations, operations, small business job creations and innovations that would create.
You'd need to be a citizen. You'd need to have an address, identity and bank account. The less responsible would continue to irresponsible. But the bulk of americans would be much better off.
And it would cost 305,000,000 dollars instead of 700,000,000,000 dollars. That's pennies on the dollar for a bail out plan.
Instead of bailing out the institutions who made this mess, let's bail ourselves out.