The government bailout that was supposed to save the financial sector from certain doom failed to pass vote on Congress. Does that mean we now face certain doom? I think not.I don't want to sound Pollyanna-ish and I don't really have a crystal ball (as my headline promises), but here are some reasons why investors should not panic and sell their stocks now:
First, as frightening as the market looks -- the Dow fell 778 points for its worst one-day drop ever -- there is going to be a rebound. If you sell at the bottom, you will miss out on an eventual recovery. If you really want to get out, wait for a bounce and then sell some of your stock holdings. Don't sell into a freefall. Think about it: the S&P fell an astounding 8.79% on Monday -- the worst percentage drop in more than 60 years, except for 1987's Black Monday crash. The Nasdaq fell 9.14%. Given the devastation, I think a bounce could come as soon as Tuesday since there will no doubt be some news that has to be better than Monday's.
Incidentally, this "don't sell in a panic" advice is the same you'll get from any financial advisor worth his or her salt. If you're invested in the market for the long term, you should ride out such waves and -- if you're really brave -- even use episodes of panic selling to buy more stocks.
Second, a private sector solution to this problem is possible. We've seen Warren Buffett invest $5 billion of his capital into Goldman Sachs and stronger financial institutions step in to buy the weak. There is plenty of additional capital out there that could come in and boost the banks. Heck, Barron's just ran a cover story about how profitable the government's purchase of toxic waste would ultimately prove. If the magazine is right, some of those hedge funds will surely come in and slurp up some of this slop.
What if a private sector solution doesn't materialize? Then you should be glad that the bailout plan on the table Monday didn't pass. It could be a sign that the U.S. might well have been just throwing good money after bad by buying all those billions of bad debt.
Third, If credit markets stay frozen and banks keep going bust, I think Congress will pass some kind of Federal aid package that will stabilize the financial system. It may take a few painful weeks of market turmoil and economic hand-wringing, but hopefully it will be better than the package that failed to pass the House today.
There are plenty of other options for how such a bailout could be structured -- such as the government getting preferred stock in exchange for injecting capital, or the Feds finding a way to provide a more direct boost to the long-suffering housing market. A lot of folks are going to be fighting it out to come up with a plan that will both work and pass and I think they will succeed.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
9-29-2008 @ 5:55PM
3081c133 said...
Sure the markets will rebound but it may take 20 years or more.I think this is a wake-up call to investors who have had enough of the lack of enforcement of regulations and feel that Wall street is a worse bet than sticking your money into a CD that pays 3%.at least you dont have Greedy Brokers mannipulating the CD rate.If Congress wants to get a bail-out package passed they better stick new regulations and laws to control Wall Streets dealings in the package.
9-29-2008 @ 6:11PM
stevereportdotcom said...
When a can of soup is on sale, you buy a bunch of them. But when a share of stock is on sale, people run from it like. Stocks are on sale, now is the time to buy.
9-29-2008 @ 6:49PM
David said...
It appears that members of the House of Representatives on both sides of the aisle were pandering to their constituents instead of keeping their eyes on the ball. The ball was the economy of this country! Failure of this Bill will mean further problems for this constituents - loss of savings for tuition and other important items, inability to make loans, corporate bankruptcies and loss of jobs. If the House members didn't want to lose their elections five weeks hence, voting "No" on this bill will backfire on them. It's hard to believe that so many elected officials are so short-sighted.
9-29-2008 @ 6:48PM
Warren said...
Steve
I hate to be one of those guys who replies with a Buffett quote, but ... as the man says, stocks are the only thing people don't like to buy on sale. It's mystifying.
9-29-2008 @ 7:20PM
ynot said...
Stocks are not on sale yet my friends. We have a ways to go before that happens. I just love how these brokers tell the suckers not to sell all the way from the 14,000 high point the market was at. You are going to miss the upside when the market corrects. While they are telling average Americans this they are selling out covering their butts. My advice to people is pay attention to what is going on around you. Don't listen to these blowhards. They lie more than politicians. If people aren't buying then our economy is falling. Housing prices have a way to drop before they get back to affordable. People are in debt above their heads. Until this mess clears up, don't expect the market to skyrocket anytime soon. At least based on fundamentals. You may see an artificial spike now and then from more bailouts, but as you have seen the market comes back down further after every one of them. Beware the bailouts, beware government control and beware brokers suggestions.
9-29-2008 @ 7:26PM
Warren said...
Moving money out of the market or sitting on it waiting for the DOW to go longer are both losing strategies. Market timing never wins. Ever.
9-29-2008 @ 7:44PM
don said...
i have two years worth of cash, i'm holding out and not selling any stock
9-29-2008 @ 7:52PM
Rob said...
The notion that your average investors will not buy stock that is "on sale" is not hard to understand. In the case of a can of soup, the goal of the intended purchase (to eat it) is not influenced by outside factors. I will not find it's usefulness diminished or inedible tomorrow because of a increase in oil prices, or due to failings of a tech company. It's value is physical, can be held, and consumed as I wish. There's no betting or gambling in a can of soup - I know what I'm getting and I receive it.
A stock, no matter how confident a broker, television analyst or blogger may be in it's long term value, is a gamble - If there wasn't risk, I wouldn't of had to OK all the disclaimers that stood in the
way of signing up.
Faced with increased volatility in the market, it is the natural tendency for people to remove their money and cash out or move it to a more stable location.
I don't know why that's so hard to understand - Rather than figure out why people are removing their money from the market, brokers should worry about how they can find better ways to minimize the risk that your average investor would encounter.
9-30-2008 @ 6:39AM
TheTradeDetective said...
I don't think a bounce is going to quell any kind of investor fears, and the bounce MAY come tomorrow, but it might come 3 days from now after the market has fallen another 9%.
Instead of selling your positions, get short this market and hedge your bets. Use protective puts and add to your positions to cost average down (assuming you think the company isn't damaged goods)
By the way, the S&P 500 is going down, way down. 2 weeks ago I put a chart up on my blog ( http://recordpricebreakout.com/september-17th-2008-sp-500-forecast-a-double-top/ ) that shows the S&P 500 could be putting in a double top, which if true, could completely wipe out the index.
At the very least, the technicals show the S&P at a critical junction only 15 - 45 points below today's close. If this market breaks 1062 then we're headed all the way down to 760.
9-29-2008 @ 8:18PM
Ed said...
Right on ynot! Where was Cramer, even as recently as last week, when he should have known that the market had to come down. The turndown vote just made it sooner. The market price has to adjust to reflect the current business conditions, regardless of a bailout. When people live on what they actually make, business will suffer. As far as buying at the low point, I agree that we aren't there yet. As for Steve and Warren, you have to have cash to buy in when it's low, and folks don't. The institutional investors do, but then again, they are the cause of the inflated stock price to begin with.
9-29-2008 @ 9:48PM
stevek said...
A Monday to Remember!
The bailout is going to cost all of us and our children an amazing amount of money in the future. We as a country just can not afford to continue adding to a national deficit of what will be more than $11 Trillion by the end of this year.
We fully understand the implications of no bailout. It is pretty much guaranteeing, at this point ,that we and the....
continued at
www.mortgagebreakdown.com
9-29-2008 @ 9:18PM
Mr. noitall said...
Amey, just about every financial advisor out there has been giving the same advice. I don't think they are "worth their salt." It's time we stop believing all this "buy & hold", "in it for the long haul" nonsense.
9-29-2008 @ 9:16PM
Chris said...
I sold my stocks last fall when it became obvious that the market was crashing.
9-29-2008 @ 10:30PM
stacy said...
i feel that they shouldn't rob from peter to pay paul. why are us tax payers having to bail wall street out.
9-29-2008 @ 11:10PM
Shelley said...
Indeed, Buy&Hold is the most riskiest strategy around. Every time you enter a stock position you should know what your exit is to be. In fact, your exit point should also determine the size of your position. And that exit point should not just be a percentage of the stock price (i.e. trailing stop) which has no bearing whatsoever as to the stock or market's behavior. I feel sorry for all the people who were thinking about retiring but have now seen a good chunk of their portfolio disappear since last fall.
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9-29-2008 @ 11:35PM
anthony said...
The people of this country have absolutely no idea what they are talking about in not "approving" this bill. We lost over 1.2 Trillion dollars in value today. Where the hell does this come from? The 401K's (which are now 201k's), pension funds, mutual funds, individual stocks. My father in law lost $ 25,000 yesterday when Wamu went under and the bonds he was told were safe (he's 84) were wiped out. Get the hell out o9f the way and let the professionals who understand what is happening to do their jobs and right this mess. Yes, we are not responsible, but since corporations don't pay taxes, and everything falls to the people, we must protect ourselves and push these fools in congress to pass this measure immediately. If they fail, this country is going down, and trillions will be lost.
Can you say "great depression II"?
9-29-2008 @ 11:37PM
anthony said...
If you want a chance to diversify your income visit us at http://amjmarketingintl.com
9-30-2008 @ 12:01AM
stevekendall said...
JUST SAY NO! By Steve Kendall
Thank god they didn't pass the "bailout" plan! Buying up all the bad mortgage backed securities from all these crazy ___ mortgage banks is ridiculous. So what if the market went down 777, so what if we lost $1.4 trillion in market value today.
We're here to build the future folks, take the damn never ending....
continued at -
www.mortgagebreakdown.com
9-30-2008 @ 12:30AM
Don said...
I am voting against every incumbent this year. Congress rails for executive pay excess, and yet they have been the worst offenders. If THEY were paid for perfomance they would be writing checks for this bailout. BOTH parties were asleep at the switch. NEITHER party has the guts to point out that the problem began with irresponsible borrowing (sometimes fraudulent) by the American people. In any case, this sucks, and I am pissed. Time to blow up Congress and start over from scratch.
9-30-2008 @ 1:55AM
dk said...
Maybe it is because I live in the midwest, and diversified my portfolio but this hasnt been that bad. Lost a couple of thousand--it goes down and comes back. Too many people running around on tv like crazy people. Congress needs to stop and read the fine print, decide exactly what they are doing and implement it slowly and definitively. Not just say we are going to throw 700 billion in a hole and pray for the best. That will just get us right back here...with deadbeat mortgage holders not paying their bills again and wall street acting crazy. I salute any members of Congress who held out and didnt sign a crappy plan and who can hold out until they get a plan in place that will work...