Global money markets seizing up


As the Dow fell Monday a record 778 points, or 7% -- a third as much as it fell in percentage terms in October 1987 -- the real action was in the money markets. That's because banks are not lending to each other any more and they are not lending to companies or people either. The only reason any credit is flowing is because central banks are pumping money into the system. For instance, the Fed added $630 billion yesterday to global money markets.

Cash is hard to come by. There are two measures that citizens can use to assess how well the money markets are working. Those are the TED spread, which measures the difference between three-month (London Interbank Offered Rate) Libor and the three-month Treasury rate, and the Libor-Overnight indexed swap (OIS) spread. The TED spread is near a record 3.38% (it was 1.1% a month ago). And the Libor-OIS spread is a record 2.46% (it was 0.08% a year ago).

What does this record level of distrust mean? It certainly reflects a loss of confidence in our leaders and our institutions. For banks it means they must either raise capital, merge with a stronger player, or shut down. For companies, it means hoarding cash and trying to get longer-term loans. And for consumers, it means cutting back on expenses and giving up on borrowing more money to cover the remaining ones.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 08:25 AM

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