I sold on Friday: It was just luck

Normally, I'm the kind of person who thinks it's ridiculous when investors sell in a bear market. I didn't flinch when the dot-come bubble burst, or in the downturn after the terrorist attacks. But this time is different.

In January, I pulled back my stock holdings to the low end of the asset allocation models. In the last couple weeks as the credit crunch unfurled while I was on vacation in Canada with my husband, I looked for an up day in the market to sell. On Friday, I cut our stock holdings in our regular and retirement accounts by about one-third.

On Friday afternoon I completely expected the market Monday to rise on word of a successful bailout. I warned my husband that there would certainly be a rally when the deal was approved and we would lose out. Boy, did that turn out not to be the case. It still may happen, but I really doubt it will completely erase Monday's loss.

Friday wasn't even my first choice for a sell date. As I said, we were traveling and the two other times I wanted to sell, we couldn't get a secure internet connection in time.

I still don't believe I've timed this perfectly. You just can't. If I had timed it perfectly I would've taken everything out of stocks last October. I could have saved around 20-30% of my holdings with that. And I'm absolutely certain that I won't jump back in at exactly the right time. I know the market lurches up in big jumps.

But I don't need to get it 100% right to save myself some money. When the market has been up lately, it's been on that crazy market wisdom that, 'Yeah! A bailout plan is coming!' But the big picture is still bad news: A bailout is needed and even it may not work.