Moreover, yours truly is not one to alarm, and typically views 'sweeping and dramatic statements' with a journalist's skepticism and a scholar's critical review.
But when the best economists you talk to, and business executives, and others in financial and investment circles, start reaching the same conclusion, from decidedly different vantage points, the dramatic statement begins to take on more weight, becoming more compelling.
'The reality of the facts on the ground'
Further, as Pearlstein incisively points out, there are reasons why a considerable portion of the American people are not 'getting it' regarding how serious the current situation is. Politicians are more concerned about ideology, partisan posturing, and teaching people a lesson -- if you can believe that they could be so irresponsible (my astonishment added, not Pearlstein's). Financiers have been very slow to admit to greed, arrogance, and incompetence. And foreign government leaders still view the financial crisis as 'an American problem.'
But none of the above changes what Pearlstein, and what my closest economist colleagues (David H. Wang, Richard Felson, Peter Dawson, M. Chandler, and Glen Langan) all argue is "the reality of the facts on the ground," to borrow a phrase from Israel's former Prime Minister and Defense Minister Ariel Sharon. Namely, that a massive, global deleveraging is taking place, and that absent a systemic rescue/intervention by the U.S. Government, in conjunction with interventions by other governments around the world, the world risks the bursting of a credit bubble that threatens to bring down the global financial system.
What's one macroeconomic consequence? A decade or more of little or no U.S. economic growth, Pearlstein argues, and the aforementioned economists agree.
What's one practical impact on a small business owner in Indiana, or Florida, or Virginia, or Nevada? No loans to expand your business from your local bank. Or the end of your existing line of credit, upon repayment. Ditto for students loans, car loans, and of course mortgages, perhaps even for the most credit-worthy. Your town or county wants to borrow money to build those two public elementary schools the community needs? Sorry, banks aren't lending to each other, so they won't come close to lending to your community.
All of which suggests the news would not be good, either, regarding corporate earnings and employment levels.
Economic Analysis: Columnist Pearlstein argues that the intervention must be government-based, international, large, sustained, and both systematic and extraordinary. And that's the view from here, as well.
More than $1.2 trillion in market value was wiped out in Monday's stock market drop. How many more trillion dollars in market value in retirement savings, investments, company value, and in homes-that-should-not-have-gone-into-foreclosure does the nation want to see wiped out before the nation decides to invest up to $700 billion, most or possibly all of which will be repaid?
What's needed now is political leadership. If we get it we can prevent this financial crisis from turning into a financial calamity.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
9-30-2008 @ 6:43PM
Robert said...
Agreed.
myspace.com/anotherblackseason
It's a band.
9-30-2008 @ 7:31PM
william lindblad said...
Great argument, but we have too many analysts, economists and Mr Pearlstein all trying to tell the U.S. taxpayer that we are idiots. Screw You AND the horse that you rode in on.
We have a room full of genius - and not one can see the forest for the trees.
I am a taxpayer and I far from an idiot. I have posts going back a full two years predicting this mess. In fact, I believe I coined the word. We the hell were all of you smart people when this started?????
If I seem caustic, I have a reason and so does the rest of the sans culotte. The response to Congress ran about 500 to 1 - all in the NAY column. Those that voted YEA can kiss their greedy self serving butts goodbye come election day - WATCH. I single out Barney Frank as the nemesis of the U.S. Taxpayer. I tried sending warnings repeatedly, only to be told he does not communicate with anyone other than from his district. Funny, the Congressman from MY district is on the armed service committee, you know, like the military. Since the military is a Country thing - he will take comment from any citizen in the U.S. I guess that banking and finance are confined to Mass.
What all the smart people are missing is that the price of oil is tied directly to the dollar which in turn is tied directly to our government. When we, the taxpayer, bail out private equity we also hurt the dollar. Consequently, oil will move up and the economy will remain stagnant even if the credit crisis can be solved. In plain and simple English. The taxpayer gets screwed either way.
Will a government bail out solve the consolidation and layoffs? A yes answer wins a free trip to the magic kingdom. Will a no bail out create layoffs? Yes.
The is no difference between the two conditions and that is my whole point. The true cost of this bail out is going to be more like 3 trillion dollars and the damage to the U.S. economy will be such that our children's children will still be paying. Open your eyes and start to look at what is happening. Banks in Belgium, Iceland, the U.K., Germany all have the same ailment. The also have the same cause - the U.S. housing market. They want us to bail them out too.
As I stated at opening - screw them all. If I have to eat potato soup - I want company.
9-30-2008 @ 7:39PM
clikdawg said...
More denial ...
Look. A bubble is a bubble -- get it? It has no substance. It cannot be sustained indefinitely. And try as hard as we might to preserve one when we create one -- they ARE really beautiful, after all -- the damn thing pops every time.
That is the nature of bubbles, whether they are made of soap or made of paper. The very constructional features that make it happen, that make it so (temporarily) flexible and expansive, are the same features that ultimately destroy it.
Pitch another $700 billion at it -- hell, pitch another three trillion -- and all you are doing is giving those left holding the bag as the pyramid scheme topped out a chance to recoup their investment by sticking the US taxpayer with the bill for that final "Pop!"
Too bad, huh? And you know what? Cotton candy don't last forever, either.
You cannot climb out of a shit-heap by burrowing deeper into it and pretending it's clover.
We are in that shot-heap. You wanna pay for showers and a fresh suit of clothes for the guys who got us there, while we stay stuck in the muck, well ... I suggest that you exercise your charitable instincts by selecting the StockMeister or SuperBanker of your choice and writing he or she a personal check for $8,000. You KNOW they'll do the right thing with it, right?
9-30-2008 @ 7:39PM
Virtuous said...
These are the same people that got us in this mess in the first place. If these economists and politicians are so great, they should have prevented this predicament in the first place. The market must be allowed to correct itself. Reckless, unethical, irresponsible behavior must never be rewarded.
9-30-2008 @ 7:47PM
Virtuous said...
I won't vote for anyone that favors any kind of bailout plan that uses any taxpayer monies.
9-30-2008 @ 8:13PM
Ben said...
Oh come on.
No matter how you spin it, I still don't see any logic in your "arguments". Your latest spin is that we the public simply don't get it. I see that's why I still don't know wtf are you talking about.
IF you would just kindly explain how the 700 billion dollars will fix the housing bubble? How the 700 billion's going to saved thousands of American jobs?
You know what having a recession isn't a bad idea at all. Maybe then we can start manufacturing our own cloths, food, electronics etc .....
It's just capitalism.
9-30-2008 @ 8:50PM
JCH said...
If your internet posts on the housing bubble only go back two years, you're a piker.
And blaming Barney Frank is preposterous.
This has gone way beyond being just a housing bubble.
9-30-2008 @ 9:07PM
Pat said...
Lets do the math for a person making $20.00 per hour (REMEMBER Fed Min is $6.55 an hour and the highest state is $8.07) Now $20 per hour times 40 hours per week times 4.2 weeks in a month is $3360 per month for a total of $41,600 per year. The average income for those over 25 in 2005 was between $32-39,000: Mortgage Payment on a median house per census is $247,900. Now a good rate of 6% over 30 years) is $1486.29. Now, add in gas at $100 per week, car payment at $229 per month, car insurance at $75.00 per month, food costs at $125.00 per week, property tax at $500 per month, income tax, social security, state tax, FICA, etc at another $500 per month. The person is negative $330 dollars.
Now what about kids, second car, health insurance, laundry, internet, phone, electric bill, heating bill, student loans, etc. Gotta have that second income to get to the $67,348 dual earner households just to hopefully be able to pay for it all.
Since the 1980s, the cost of living increases are out pacing the rate of wage increases. But coperate profits are up, the dow dramatically up, globalization has really helped create America as a debtor nation full of people in debt. NAFTA has kept jobs. The divide in this country between the rich and poor is becoming so great, that a recession is what is needed to bring things into balance again. The rest of this is just paper money backed only by "IN GOD WE TRUST."
Maybe a math person can figure out the difference in the "value of house" in 1970 to today and the change in income ratios. Would really be interested.
9-30-2008 @ 9:33PM
Barb S said...
They did not make one concession for the taxpayer, as they said! This bill cannot pass as it is, if we are to remain a democracy and have any chance at strengthening the middle class once again. EVERY taxpayer should read it! Here are the five most worriesome parts of this bill ... The bailout bill had NO enforcement provisions for the so-called oversight group that was going to monitor Wall Street's spending of the $700 billion; It had NO penalties, fines or imprisonment for any executive who might steal any of the people's money; It did NOTHING to force banks and lenders to rewrite people's mortgages to avoid foreclosures -- this bill would not have stopped ONE foreclosure; It had NO teeth anywhere in the entire piece of legislation, using words like "suggested" when referring to the government being paid back for the bailout; Over 200 economists wrote to Congress and said this bill might actually WORSEN the "financial crisis" and cause even MORE of a meltdown.
9-30-2008 @ 9:28PM
JCH said...
Do you honestly think a large number of people will retain a $20 an hour job during a recession?
The only people in this country who remember a serious recession, and I don't think any of them thought of it as curative.
With a recession, the gulf between rich and poor will broadly widen. That was the conflict between George Bailey and Henry Potter. Bailey wanted people to be able to buy and keep homes, and Potter wanted to buy up their lost homes for pennies and turn the little city into a community of renters.
9-30-2008 @ 9:31PM
NoInform8tion said...
Maybe you don't get how serious it is. We realize there will be no more loaning and are willing to accept that. People and businesses will have to live within their means. The people of the US are ready to suffer recession or depression rather than leave things as they have been, it's not working. There has been too much outsourcing, too much dependence on foreign oil, too much inflation, too many unneccessary wars, too much greed and inequality. We're willing to go through this and let the banks that are good survive while the others fall. I think it's the bureaucrats that don't get it. We know it'll be horrible but if that's what it takes to change and make things more equal, then we'll go through it 10-20 years whatever it takes. Remember, Americans have gone through revolutions and civil wars fighting for what they want. We want change.
9-30-2008 @ 9:51PM
clikdawg said...
Um ... casting the Modern American Corporate Swindler as George Bailey???
That's coming it a bit high, don't you think?
'Specially since, in Act V, these guys WILL be buying up folks' homes Henry-Potter-style for pennies on the dollar.
"It's A Wonderful Life" is a marvelous piece of propaganda calculated by Frank Capra to put the best face he could on the financial defalcations of the era. It is a great crowd control device, but (and I hope I'm not giving anything away here) it is NOT an accurate portrayal of the typical embezzler. What Frank (and the Gummint) wanted was all those neighbors just throwing that cash at good ol' George.
Maarkey, pal. Pure malarkey ...
9-30-2008 @ 10:23PM
uscyeahright said...
Wouldn't it be great if people only paid for what they had saved up to pay for, instead of always relying on CREDIT??????
9-30-2008 @ 11:31PM
JCH said...
I don't agree.
Bailey started a housing development for the working poor. Potter attempted to put them out of their houses, which he intended to buy up cheap, and to make them renters. In the Great Depression, large numbers of family farmers became tenant farmers. Large numbers of homeowners lost their homes and became renters.
It is being suggested that a recession/depression is curative, which is preposterous.
10-01-2008 @ 12:21AM
clikdawg said...
JCH -- We are not talking about housing developments for the working poor here, or anything remotely like it, Sport. We're talking about suckering people into buying houses they couldn't afford, and then sticking the American taxpayer with the resulting junk mortgage.
The credit bubble is simply a massive pyramid scheme with the US Treasury as the ultimate target.
There is no altruism at work. No noble vision. Just plain, straight, old-fashioned theft.
As to what is cured in a REAL recession, where those who can't cut it -- from whatever economic class, profession, or social standing -- are ruthlessly culled from the herd by virtue of their own failings, well ... that's called "natural selection"; a phrase that rolls right off the tongues of the folks you're defending, as long as they're talking about Someone Else. In other words, those responsible for this mess are prevented from doing any further harm to society by the simple expedient of letting the results of their own actions remove them from it.
If they are not artificially protected (as you suggest they should be), society, after the attendant and unavoidable dislocations caused by their greed, carelessness, and anti-social acts, can rebuild itself on more solid ground. Can give those who DIDN'T screw the pooch a shot at running things.
Unalloyed joy? No. Necessary palliative for a variety of ills? You bet your ass, Mister.
10-01-2008 @ 1:27AM
greg said...
It seems to me that there are enough regional/local banks in this country who can provide the credit needed for the small and medium size businesses in this country. Not everyone keeps money in New York/Charlotte banks. Let the gunslingers go under...I think this problem can and will be solved on a state and local level. Remember years ago when we had, for example, many U. S applicance manufacturers (Amana, Frigidaire, Norge, Hotpoint/GE, Kitchen Aid, Whirlpool, Gibson, Westinghouse). There were no hedge funds/leveraged buyout firms/investment bankers pushing for repeated consolidations (resulting in layoffs/plant closings/outsourcing). These companies made money year after year..maybe not 40%, but respectable returns that paid decent wages, paid back loans AND provided a reasonable profit for the owners. WHEN can we get this country to focus on those kind of values again? I own a small manufacturing company in Texas and I make EVERYTHING right here outside of downtown Dallas. I buy American cloth and components and employ American citizens at well above minimum wage. My costs are a bit higher than if I sourced my manufacturing in the far East, but I REFUSE to do so on principle. I wish more of my American business brethren would do the same.
10-01-2008 @ 1:45AM
Chad said...
The government as usual has good intentions which will eventually lead to shitty consequences. I'm glad the bill failed...too many taxpayers said FU.
Now Wall Street is blaming the mark to market rules...whatevers. www.cfolounge.com
10-01-2008 @ 1:52AM
Mike said...
Out of all people in the world you could only find the criminal butcher Ariel Sharon to quote? What a pathetic person you are. People like you and him will go down in history as criminals. The bankers need to pay for their own mistakes. We DONT NEED MORE DEBT. WE DONT NEED MORE BORROWING so bankers can enslave the masses to working a life time to pay off usury. Wake up America and don't listen to this nonsense
10-01-2008 @ 4:56AM
Steve said...
Everyone, needs to email your Congress rep and tell them Hell No, Not with my tax dollars. NO Bail out! does anyone know of a poor or lower income politician! or CEO or maybe a broke board member in all this mess, A on air finance advisor on welfare?
Well thats what their trying to sell us on. well they laugh all the way to the bank.... as long as it not a small independent. This is not a early xmas and their not Saint Nick, If you don't Know, listen up " A man with a briefcase can Steal more than a man with a gun" and i don't see any CEO going to jail. Some where Ken Ley is laughing...
10-01-2008 @ 5:22AM
Steve said...
How much personal wealth are the top 50 riches CEO and top riches Board member and the top 50 riches politicians willing to put up of their own money, you know the Gates,the Allens, Opera, Arnold, heck , let have a fund raiser Obama style "you member" $28,000.00 a plate, or Bush family money. Chaney money or anyone who got rich in the last 10 years? How 'bout it?