Moreover, yours truly is not one to alarm, and typically views 'sweeping and dramatic statements' with a journalist's skepticism and a scholar's critical review.
But when the best economists you talk to, and business executives, and others in financial and investment circles, start reaching the same conclusion, from decidedly different vantage points, the dramatic statement begins to take on more weight, becoming more compelling.
'The reality of the facts on the ground'
Further, as Pearlstein incisively points out, there are reasons why a considerable portion of the American people are not 'getting it' regarding how serious the current situation is. Politicians are more concerned about ideology, partisan posturing, and teaching people a lesson -- if you can believe that they could be so irresponsible (my astonishment added, not Pearlstein's). Financiers have been very slow to admit to greed, arrogance, and incompetence. And foreign government leaders still view the financial crisis as 'an American problem.'
But none of the above changes what Pearlstein, and what my closest economist colleagues (David H. Wang, Richard Felson, Peter Dawson, M. Chandler, and Glen Langan) all argue is "the reality of the facts on the ground," to borrow a phrase from Israel's former Prime Minister and Defense Minister Ariel Sharon. Namely, that a massive, global deleveraging is taking place, and that absent a systemic rescue/intervention by the U.S. Government, in conjunction with interventions by other governments around the world, the world risks the bursting of a credit bubble that threatens to bring down the global financial system.
What's one macroeconomic consequence? A decade or more of little or no U.S. economic growth, Pearlstein argues, and the aforementioned economists agree.
What's one practical impact on a small business owner in Indiana, or Florida, or Virginia, or Nevada? No loans to expand your business from your local bank. Or the end of your existing line of credit, upon repayment. Ditto for students loans, car loans, and of course mortgages, perhaps even for the most credit-worthy. Your town or county wants to borrow money to build those two public elementary schools the community needs? Sorry, banks aren't lending to each other, so they won't come close to lending to your community.
All of which suggests the news would not be good, either, regarding corporate earnings and employment levels.
Economic Analysis: Columnist Pearlstein argues that the intervention must be government-based, international, large, sustained, and both systematic and extraordinary. And that's the view from here, as well.
More than $1.2 trillion in market value was wiped out in Monday's stock market drop. How many more trillion dollars in market value in retirement savings, investments, company value, and in homes-that-should-not-have-gone-into-foreclosure does the nation want to see wiped out before the nation decides to invest up to $700 billion, most or possibly all of which will be repaid?
What's needed now is political leadership. If we get it we can prevent this financial crisis from turning into a financial calamity.
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Reader Comments (Page 2 of 2)
10-01-2008 @ 6:27AM
al coholic said...
Greg in #16...
You are right. These institutions willingly and knowingly made huge gambles to satisfy their greed and now are crying wolf about a total financial meltdown if we don't bail them out. 700 billion won't cure this ill. Nor will the retraction of mark to market values.
We just have to hunker down and ride this one out.
10-01-2008 @ 6:26AM
nightnightshark said...
Market up, recession is over! Congress cancels all mortgages.
------Ok maybe not, but the market is up 485 points today and all of the sudden there's talk of the fallout from this crisis not being so bad after all. Don't kid yourself, the only reason the market is up today is because there's BS going around that the "savior of the stupid (SOS) bill" is going to pass Thursday. Don't count on it!
The bill to buy $700 billion mortgage backed securities, looks like $350 billion now with more later if needed (like they wont need it later. Come on people!), the FDIC insurance limits moved from $100k to $250k (this should have been done decades ago) and now their adding tax cuts and a "bridge to nowhere" in addition to....
continued at -------www.mortgagebreakdown.com
10-01-2008 @ 6:37AM
nightnightshark said...
Market up, recession is over! Congress cancels all mortgages.
------Ok maybe not, but the market is up 485 points today and all of the sudden there's talk of the fallout from this crisis not being so bad after all. Don't kid yourself, the only reason the market is up today is because there's BS going around that the "savior of the stupid (SOS) bill" is going to pass Thursday. Don't count on it!
The bill to buy $700 billion mortgage backed securities, looks like $350 billion now with more later if needed (like they wont need it later. Come on people!), the FDIC insurance limits moved from $100k to $250k (this should have been done decades ago) and now their adding tax cuts and a "bridge to nowhere" in addition to....
continued at -------www.mortgagebreakdown.com
10-01-2008 @ 8:06AM
David said...
Oh yes, I'm ready to listen to a guy names Pearlstein tell us why we need to bail out his Jewish brothers on Wall Street. The same people that swindled the entire world by packaging and selling this crap.
If the future is that bad, they should be jumping out of their Park Avenue penhouses. At least we would be rid of a few of these vultures.
10-01-2008 @ 9:35AM
BBBAAAHHH!!! said...
I love the fact that the dire circumstances yada yada yada , I think the taxpayers are tired of getting huge bills for these people misbehaven, I want to see the huge severances packages for the CEO's and senior execs of these failed institutions cancelled and them thrown out of there a**es , a guy runs a company into the ground and then stand to collect 50 million dollars screw that
10-01-2008 @ 12:47PM
Levi said...
We have as a nation been living beyond our means at an ever increasing pace every year. and of course the rest of the world feeds off of our excess spending.
What will a "bailout" accomplish?
It will allow us to continue to live beyond our means.
Lets face it, if we only stabilize the economy how will the Economic Guru's continue to rake in millions in bonuses every year? They won't.
Even as we speak the people who know "so much more than us" are planning a strategy that will allow them to continue business as usual. In street terms it's called three card monty. As long as they keep moving the cards we keep loosing. If It was my game, and I was about to lose my cards I'd be crying to. Con artists are all about "confidence" We are told that there is a "lack of confidence" Well great! That's the first step that will stop the process of us being SUCKERS.
10-01-2008 @ 1:31PM
Giovanni Boiano said...
This plan is a bunch of total BS. I have BoA trying to give me 100K line of credit, really and truly and I am a small buisness. Yes, my numbers are off, but not by much. I can always market and educate myself to stay ahead of the curve. The bailout will increase my rtaxes substantially without any net gain. This plan is totally wrong for small buisness. The author is just apuppet that had to say this because AOL/TW wants the bailout. Not the people. Our lawmakers have a right to listen to us and our voices are clear. NO BAILOUT NO BAILOUT NO BAILOUT.
There will be hell to pay if this bill gets railroaded down our throats. I will not stand for it. Everyone who is against the plan must make our feelings heard. Remember you are not alone. The only problem is that we can't go march and protest, because we WORK and PAY TAXES. But we do vote and we donate money. Well the RNC and the DNC will never get a penny from me. I will only donate to candidates that have America's and it's people with their interests at heart. This will be a sad day if thebill is approved.
10-01-2008 @ 2:25PM
Steve S said...
I'm as opposed to Corporate Execs stealing from their shareholders as anyone else, but let's not end up living in caves to "get 'em". Here's an article with more on this non-bailout:
Last Bank Standing - The Wall Street Mega-Crash
Dateline Washington, October 19th (get it?) 2010: the Peoples Bank & Trust of America has now established itself as the only bank of any kind in the USA, totally owned and managed by the US House of Representatives. A 2/3 majority must now approve all investment banking transactions; your district representative's staff reviews individual mortgage applications; and all 401(k), IRA, and remaining employer pension assets have been rolled into the Social Security Slush Fund.
Only federal and state elected officials are exempt from the 45% all purpose Income Tax. The estimated time to bring new companies public is 4.5 years; all individual account dividends and interest are paid directly into your IRS "grabber" account; CEO's salaries are limited to 50% of the amount paid to a first year congressman, and any government budget shortfalls are withdrawn from corporate earnings before any corporate obligations can be dealt with.
All employees receive the federal mandated minimum wage, except senior executives who are limited as mentioned above. Scary? This is a scenario that could play out if Congress (or the SEC) does not come to the rescue of the credit markets. You missed your opportunity to help stop it, but chances are a fix is on its way.
How many more businesses, jobs, and hopes will be killed by this irresponsible Congress? When will the average blogger realize that when a corporation fails, we all suffer? One would think that the informed and enlightened could take time out from their texting for a little research and education. Instead, they show their power by influencing public opinion numbers and the marshmallow politicians who worship them. As economist Irwin Kellner and I have pointed out, this is no bailout and we are not nearly approaching a recession.
Kellner's September 28th Market Watch article points out ten major differences between now and then: (1) In 1929, the DJIA plunged 40% in two months vs. around 30% in about a year. (2) In 1933, the jobless rate was 33% vs. 6% today. (3) The GDP shrank 25% then, but has increased 6% now. (4) Consumer prices actually fell 30% then but haven't ever since.
(5) Home prices dropped 30% then, but only 16% from the recent bubbly highs. (6) 40% of all mortgages were in default then vs. only 4% now. (7) 9,000 banks failed in the 1930s compared with just 25 or so (bigger and broader based ones) recently. (8) The Federal Reserve reduced the money supply, (9) raised interest rates, and (10) raised taxes on foreign imports.
Further, Kellner points out, we now have automatic stabilizers, deposit insurances, and market trading restrictions as protective elements. Today's Congress however, has never been good at connecting dots, has accomplished nothing under an unpopular president, and is ignoring its role as the primary creative force in today's problems. This transfusion is needed because: bad laws have obscured the values on financial institution balance sheets, and have created a clot in the credit arteries that keep the economy alive.
Educate yourselves on the Accounting Rule's that require institutions to book paying assets at pennies on the dollar. Find out why institutions are afraid to loan money to one another--- over night, at any rate of interest--- strangling the credit markets.
Doing nothing is killing jobs, killing companies, and deferring retirements for those who were counting on 401(k) and IRA dollars to provide them with income. Congress, of course has an old-fashioned pension plan, so it is unaffected by such financial realities.
Investigate the relaxation of lending standards that Congress orchestrated over the past few administrations, before blaming the companies that then extended credit to many speculators and other buyers who falsified application papers. Learn how the SEC was prohibited from regulating the CDOs and other multiple-leveraged credit market speculations. There are as many culprits outside the corporate executive suite as in it.
Congress is bursting with pride over bringing some of the Rich and Famous to their knees, and capping some of their obscene compensation arrangements at still shareholder pillaging levels. I've spoken often about how these salaries need to be controlled. But the multi-level-mortgage-marketing schemes that Congress encouraged must be unbundled somehow, and a buy out is the proper vehicle.
Congress has punished the entire world with its attack on Wall Street, and both parties are to blame. Representatives of the states listed below voted "no" to the credit transfusion, causing death and destruction that, in many instances, cannot be recouped. We have to replace them with better decision makers, representatives who can think in economic terms when they have to.
The number and letter code after the state designation indicates the number of representatives and their party: AL-1R, AK-1R, AZ-4D4R, CA-15D9R, CO-2D2R, CT-1D, FL-1D13R, GA-4D7R, HI-2D, ID-1R, IL-4D5R, IN-3D3R, IA-1D2R, KS-1D2R, KY-2D2R, LA-2D3R, ME-1D, MD-2D1R, MA-3D, MI-3D6R, MN-2D2R, MS-3D, MO-2D3R, MT-1R, NE-3R, NV-1D1R, NH-2D, NJ-3D4R, NM-1D1R, NY-3D1R, NC-3D5R, OH-3D7R, OK-3R, OR-3D, PA-3D7R, SC-1R, SD-1D, TN-1D4R, TX-8D14R, UT-1D1R, VT-1D, VA-1D5R, WA-1D3R, WV-1R, WI-1D2R (Names withheld, but available from the author.)
On Friday evening, candidates Obama and McCain gave their support to the Capital infusion, but neither bothered to explain why--- a huge audience was ready to soak up the information. Over the weekend, both attended meetings to support the plan and to generate support from their respective parties.
Is there enough time left to find a hero?
Steve Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.com/
http://www.kiawahgolfinvestmentseminars.com
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"
10-01-2008 @ 2:31PM
ed said...
oh!!so now we are calling it a rescue package...what ever!!!it still stinks like yesterday's dirty diapers.every elected official that votes yes to this bailout, senators and congressman are not representing the will of the people who are in majority against this bill.it is thier job to represent the people in majority not thier own bias or self serving interest or play politics with our tax dollars."what a world!!what a world!!"
10-01-2008 @ 6:16PM
Pat said...
Mr Pearlstein is the representative of the shadow government we have in the United States. This so called bail out is madness it will not save the economy how could it? If you buy toxic bad debt to create more bad debt, and that is the solution the geniuses come up with.
Derivatives debt is 450 trillion dollars according to an Australina bank not the 180trillion american banks ackowedge, national debt at least 76 trillion if we ad municipal, city, counties and estates debts, plus obligations. and 760 billion is going to solve that?
The people who create the "bail out" thinks americans are idiot and suckers that will pay for their mistakes. I for one believe most americans are smarter than Bush so we can finally see the fraud being perpetrated
President Woodrow Wilson had this to say six years after he signed the Federal Reserve law into effect…"I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men."
10-02-2008 @ 12:57AM
geo said...
Your argument is that we should give the morons who put us in this bind more money? Wow. Can I have some of what you are smoking?
Look; the fact is the American people are fed up with the stupidity and outright greed of Wall street. They did this to themselves, so I do not feel a need to bail them out of this.
Get bent on taking my tax dollars and throwing it at these assholes.
10-01-2008 @ 8:09PM
mark said...
how does buying 700 billion dollars of garbage help anything? sorry it's 850 billion now. the sky isn't falling. i just heard former treasury secretary o'niel say that federal gaurantees would be just as effective and cost nothing. what about newt gingrich's plan? why should we pay or recegotiate mortgaes for people who can't afford the homes anyway. if you have good credit you can get credit. that's the way it always been. i say no the bailout, rescue plan...maybe tomorrow it will be called america's birthday present.
10-01-2008 @ 8:12PM
mark said...
forgive my spelling of renegotiate
10-01-2008 @ 8:17PM
mark said...
...and mortgages. i promise i'll proofread better next time
10-02-2008 @ 1:28AM
JCH said...
Thank goodness the United States Senate ignored the angry, snarling, idiotic mob.