Tuesday's rally may have been the last gift the market will give you for a decade. After diving a record 778 points Monday, stocks regained 485 points -- or 62% of that loss. And that might be the best you're going to see for a long long time. With the S&P 500 down 21% year to date, you have no doubt already suffered big losses in your stock portfolio, if you own any. (I think many people got out of stocks after the dot-com crash.)
But if you are a regular investor in stocks, it may be time to move out of them and park the money somewhere safe. Between 1930 and 1932, stocks lost 80% of their value -- and that's not just ancient history. Since its peak of 5,049 in March 2000, the NASDAQ is down 59%.
There are people seeking your commissions who don't want you to get out of the market -- although, selling would give them some big commissions in the short run. It is more profitable for brokers if you stay in the market and keep investing. But is that in your best interest?
The answer depends on what happens next to stocks. And nobody knows that. However, given all the problems with the global economy, we could witness a big slowdown in economic activity over the next several years. That could lead to job losses and lower profits for many companies -- this is not a prescription for higher stock prices.
Do you need your money in the next six years? If so, consider that it might take at least that long for the economy to work out the excesses that have been built up since 2001 thanks to the tax cuts, low interest rates, enormous borrowing and lack of oversight. This might lead to the conclusion that it makes sense to cut your losses now and save what you have left.
While some look at the market decline as a buying opportunity, I challenge them to explain how they know we've hit bottom and what they would do if stocks keep going down. For others who need their money sooner, selling could be the best move.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-01-2008 @ 9:29AM
beachpaul said...
Well, you are finally seeing that light you, and your cohorts, have been touting the past nine months as the end of the tunnel, for what it truly is, the on coming train. You actually get paid for this? The train already left the station and you are advising us to buy tickets. Have another martini, you'll be okay.
10-01-2008 @ 9:57AM
robert said...
I think you should start to look for another line of work if you can't see the implications of what you are writing
10-01-2008 @ 10:05AM
mike said...
Don,t bother writing these useless articles nobody is listening to you jerks.
10-01-2008 @ 10:10AM
Bruce Wilhite said...
Get rich 101 - SELL everything - vote Obama - wait 4 years - buy everything -vote Republican. There ya go.
10-01-2008 @ 10:32AM
Richard said...
Would be a greater help to read about how management could re-create (innovate) more jobs through manufacturing new products that could boost these companies stocks !!!
10-01-2008 @ 10:32AM
ken tillie said...
It would be easy to take your advice, but it seems your in favor of higher taxes and interest rates.A mass panic out of stock market would disaster for our economy and many others.We need a major shift to change the current momentum we are experiencing.I'm not rich and don't own a business,but its time to offer enormous incentives to get the ball rolling again.Our energy system need to be greatly improved as it alone caused the start of this downward spiral.People were in a panic over gas prices and it changed alot of peoples spending habits.Lets find a way to really screw OPEC.Its not a time to sell everything,but a time for Major action to instill a philosophy that America has the greatest economy and we need to get rolling in a positive direction before its to late.Cut capital gains,reduce corporate taxes,whatever it takes to remove this dark cloud hanging over our economy.Please!!!!
10-01-2008 @ 10:48AM
Bob Haynes said...
Don't you understand that taxes are regressive.You should be fired for what you write, mostly lies that is.
10-01-2008 @ 10:55AM
Russ Pisano said...
The market ALWAYS has come back. Get a clue and stop creating drama for your own benefit.
10-01-2008 @ 11:21AM
getwau said...
CASH! Piles of cold hard cash is the best way to weather the current economic
situation. I discovered one of the best books you'll ever find about finance,
"How to Become Filthy Rich on Your Current Income" at www.how-to-become-
rich.com. If people read books like this one we wouldn’t have the current
situation we do.
10-01-2008 @ 11:24AM
DP said...
This article is a good indictation that we may be nearing a bottom. Maximum pessimism usually accompanies a bottom because the market will only bottom when there are no more sellers. My only question is which sector will lead us out of this recession? My only thoughts are energy independence or war.
10-01-2008 @ 11:35AM
Sam said...
Hey Cohan, you self serving twit. 59% of what ?!! Obviously anyone who needs their money now should worry. We need you to tell us that?? The market always comes back for those in for the long haul. You're suggesting to suck it up and sell now?? You've GOT to be on crack.
10-01-2008 @ 1:25PM
Oz said...
I agree with Paul. Where and when does this crap end? Pundits flood the radio and TV with the mantra...now is not the time to sell, now a new strategy. I believe what the market is and what it has been for the last 20 years or so is the calculated fleecing of every boomer who puts money into mutual funds, bonds and stocks. The ante has been raised now to encouraging us to sell. Hold them up by the ankles and shake until there's nothing left....Repeat process when needed, say every 7-8 years.
10-01-2008 @ 2:31PM
Michael said...
ANYONE who starts off an article stating that the rally a few days ago may be the biggest gift you will ever agin receive from the market for 10 years is questionable he understands what it takes to be a trader. The market will prevail with winninngs and loses weekly....sure if you cant stand the e-ticket ride get out but my advice is to park something out there in a stock that will grow...especially at these bargain basement prices...then forget about it and sit on it for 10 years and send this joker a copy of your settlement check for you investment. Sure take what cash you need out, thats wise but "chicken little wants you to be a chicken as well"
10-01-2008 @ 5:43PM
Dan Van said...
Babson College must be a school for the feeble minded. With a proffessor like Peter Cohan God help the students. Buy high sell low, go straight to poor house.
10-02-2008 @ 2:03PM
sue said...
I agree, sell everything, that's what I did Aug of 2007 and I continue to be in cash. Deflation is everywhere. I don't really understand why people are still holding stock when they are down over 20%. They should have sold when they were down 8% to reduce risk.
10-02-2008 @ 5:00PM
Shelley said...
When to sell. Its on everyone's minds. The problem is its the retail investor left hanging - which is why we launched SmartStops.net. So that the retail investor could also have someone watching their back - providing them with an intelligent, constantly adjusting exit strategy reflecting how that stock's behaving and overall market conditions. Its protective experience at your fingertips. So just remember, ALWAYS have an exit strategy in place from the get-go. If you had, you would not have been caught in this mess to begin with. See http://www.smartstops.net
10-06-2008 @ 7:26PM
Tony said...
How irresponsible to set the stage for panic. Sell ... sell...NOT. This kind of reporting will not help us get out of the financial rut we currently face. While there may continue to be peaks and valleys over the next several months, things will be brighter in the not to distant future. Even Greenspan agreed this crisis will be short lived and the economy will bounce back in a much shorter time frame than predicted by this jerk. Good luck people.
10-07-2008 @ 5:32PM
Lisa said...
165 Economists said: Use the $700 billion to buy the stocks of the financials. This "STOCK INFUSION" (ok but ignored so far under the Bailout) buys ALL the failing companies, includes the bad paper ALONG WITH the good & the remaining capital, RECAPITALIZES them, gives taxpayers CONTROL of the payout $ & the CEO, wages, ALL of it, & the DIVIDENDS come back to us IMMEDIATELY. Listen to This American Life on PBS 10/6/08.
10-09-2008 @ 2:48AM
John said...
I realize all these comments are individual opinions, but I have to ask some tips as I'm new to investing. I have invested funds that were left to my daughter and I've seen them go down quite dramatically which makes me nervous. In my opinion Bush exacerbated the situation with all the crisis talk that was intended to convince people to support the bailout. Irresponsible in my mind, but whatever I may think the effect is the same. I'd really like some advice about this because I've almost pulled out my daughters funds twice, but was told by my financial advisor and my father in law to have patience and let it ride. My understanding is that selling is what makes the market plummet, so I'd be essentially contributing to the crisis by bailing. I have no real desire to support the market if it costs me money, but if the market does go up I'll at least recover some of my losses. If they do level off what can I expect? will they go back to normal or spike and level off, or will they climb slowly? How long might it take? I realize predictions are impossible, but I'm ready to take her funds out and throw them in a CD, but I'll have lost over $15,000 if I do that... If anyone finds this comment and has some advice I'd love to hear it.