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Should you sell your stocks today?

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Tuesday's rally may have been the last gift the market will give you for a decade. After diving a record 778 points Monday, stocks regained 485 points -- or 62% of that loss. And that might be the best you're going to see for a long long time. With the S&P 500 down 21% year to date, you have no doubt already suffered big losses in your stock portfolio, if you own any. (I think many people got out of stocks after the dot-com crash.)

But if you are a regular investor in stocks, it may be time to move out of them and park the money somewhere safe. Between 1930 and 1932, stocks lost 80% of their value -- and that's not just ancient history. Since its peak of 5,049 in March 2000, the NASDAQ is down 59%.

There are people seeking your commissions who don't want you to get out of the market -- although, selling would give them some big commissions in the short run. It is more profitable for brokers if you stay in the market and keep investing. But is that in your best interest?

The answer depends on what happens next to stocks. And nobody knows that. However, given all the problems with the global economy, we could witness a big slowdown in economic activity over the next several years. That could lead to job losses and lower profits for many companies -- this is not a prescription for higher stock prices.

Do you need your money in the next six years? If so, consider that it might take at least that long for the economy to work out the excesses that have been built up since 2001 thanks to the tax cuts, low interest rates, enormous borrowing and lack of oversight. This might lead to the conclusion that it makes sense to cut your losses now and save what you have left.

While some look at the market decline as a buying opportunity, I challenge them to explain how they know we've hit bottom and what they would do if stocks keep going down. For others who need their money sooner, selling could be the best move.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-17.2410,433.71
NASDAQ-6.832,169.18
S&P 500-0.591,105.65

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 01:55 AM

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