In the last few years it's become pretty clear that there are many mortgages which people can't repay. But that's not the only place where people are having problems making ends meet. Borrowers holding loans for commercial real estate, leveraged buyouts, and automobiles are also having their problems with repayment.
So it should not be a huge surprise to learn that people who hold credit cards are not repaying the money they borrowed in a timely fashion. Innovest StrategicValue Advisors, a consulting firm, forecasts that banks will charge off $18.6 billion worth of credit card receivables in the first quarter of 2009 and $96 billion in 2009 -- that would be 261% more than in 2007 and 131% higher than the level it expects by the end of 2008.
But will a rise in defaults be devastating to credit card companies? A typical installment loan is a relatively low $2,200, so if a borrower pays late, the credit card companies can charge very high fees and raise the interest rates so high that they can offset some of the losses they'll incur when they ultimately end up charging off the receivable. But this credit crunch has proven that historical patterns don't always apply.
It would not surprise me if a rapid rise in credit card defaults had a negative impact that most experts had not anticipated.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-01-2008 @ 3:15PM
william lindblad said...
Possibly, but the sum total by holders should be nowhere in the realm of what is owed on mortgage notes, besides it has been going on for months and is really oil hat. More likely the companies smell some easy money from the government. Cry foul, cry poverty and maybe they get a bone. This is just another piece of nonsense. According to all that are supposed to be in the know - the stock market should be in free fall. Obviously, they are wrong since it is not. Wall St. can solve it's own problems but is cannot remove the banking fear that is creating a credit crunch. Neither can the government. It has injected a tremendous amount into the financial system already and it has made nary a difference - as reflected in the Libor rate. Although I believe that some kind of bail out is in the cards, I remain opposed.
At the present moment we are all witness to the first glimmer of real hope.
The entire commodity market is still in pullback out of fear of a slowing economy. If this trend continues the pressure will be relieved on the consumer and their respective discretionary spending which may tend to bolster the economy. As I have said before - Layoffs are a certainty, but they will occur with or without a bailout. However, not everyone is going to face a layoff and those that continue to be employed are the potential saving grace. If they are allowed to have some free money to spend, some business will benefit, hopefully enough to keep the economy afloat. If Congress goes heavy in the other direction with essentially a blank check, the money will stop at the top and we will have a depression.
And Peter, it is not Dems or Reps it is simply poor oversight and bad decisions by those in leadership roles. We are where we are because of the acute lack of common sense.
10-01-2008 @ 9:50PM
Mike said...
Credit card companies are next to be axed.
10-02-2008 @ 4:54PM
TERRI said...
They can bial out Wall Street by giving the American people the money and pay off ALL their debts, i.e. credit cards mortgages and make all American debt free, then make credit cards illegal and make it possible for the low wage incomes to habave access to money to obtain a home. By bailind out the American people it would be a win win situation, yet bailout Wall-street will all far it will go and the rich wall-street will definetally will not share it with main street.
They say lending is in a freeze, that is the best thing could happen, now know one can place themselves in greater debt because they cannot barrow. Instead they want people to barrow, yet barrowing got us into this situation. A double standard.
Indeed after contiunal meltdown threats each day, nothing happen, that tells the truth, nothing will happen or a monday a week ago when they said act now and did not and no stock market crash, have to make yourself question the thueness of this alegde meltdown. Jusy a scare tatic to make us giveup our money to pay the rich so they will not lose thie multimillion dollar homes/investments from a fallen stock market showing no concern for the people in the middle class losing their homes daily.
10-13-2008 @ 9:17AM
Aisha Smith said...
What i feel is that instead for going for various credit cards one should have the knowledge of credit basics in order to lead a debt free life. One should thoroughly check their credit report before availing any loan.sometimes we do love to flaunt our credit cards but fail to realize the amount of interest we are charged from each credit card company.I personally prefer to use a debut card while shopping or purchasing any thing.
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