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Will spiking credit card defaults make things even worse?

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In the last few years it's become pretty clear that there are many mortgages which people can't repay. But that's not the only place where people are having problems making ends meet. Borrowers holding loans for commercial real estate, leveraged buyouts, and automobiles are also having their problems with repayment.

So it should not be a huge surprise to learn that people who hold credit cards are not repaying the money they borrowed in a timely fashion. Innovest StrategicValue Advisors, a consulting firm, forecasts that banks will charge off $18.6 billion worth of credit card receivables in the first quarter of 2009 and $96 billion in 2009 -- that would be 261% more than in 2007 and 131% higher than the level it expects by the end of 2008.

But will a rise in defaults be devastating to credit card companies? A typical installment loan is a relatively low $2,200, so if a borrower pays late, the credit card companies can charge very high fees and raise the interest rates so high that they can offset some of the losses they'll incur when they ultimately end up charging off the receivable. But this credit crunch has proven that historical patterns don't always apply.

It would not surprise me if a rapid rise in credit card defaults had a negative impact that most experts had not anticipated.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 11:27 PM

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