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Credit bubble warning & Merrill forcasts oil price drop

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Oil prices are significantly down from the summer high of $147 per barrel. Wednesday October 1, New York's main contract, light sweet crude for November delivery, lost $2.11 to close at 98.53 dollars a barrel.

Now Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) is slashing its outlook for oil prices. Not only do their analysts believe that oil will drop below $90 a barrel next year, but they add that there is a possibility it may drop below $50. Demand is shrinking and it's hard to call a bottom.

Given all the turmoil in the financial markets this year and with a looming "consumer credit bubble" being discussed in most business publications, it would be very advisable to use any savings from lower oil prices to pay down credit card debt.

There were those that forewarned us of the technology stock bubble, and we had ample warning of the housing bubble that has lead to the collapse of Wall Street as we know it. As early as 2006, we were seeing stories that the credit bubble would soon be upon us.

Indeed, this fear is in part why the major financial institutions wanted to pass new laws limiting individuals bankruptcy protections. First they loan you more money than they should by any practical reasoning, and then they want to make sure you're trapped if you do not pay the very high interest rates and fees they are charging.

If we are lucky enough to see oil prices drop as Merrill Lynch forecasts, then you should be reducing debt fast and start saving.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I have no position in MER.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 08:09 AM

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