TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says too much time has passed, too many institutions are out of cash. When we say "too big to fail," what we mean is an entity that has so many tentacles in so many parts of the economic superstructure that if it failed, the consequences would be too grave for the system itself.
With the demise of Lehman, we at last see what it is like to have something too big to fail, fail. That's why you can see every insurer go down in the beat of an eyelash, or every broker roll over with lightning speed. It is how you could see commercial paper lines frozen and how you could expect money funds to crater and break the buck.
Lehman was twice as big as Bear and much more far-reaching. It was the other side of the trade, we are discovering, for myriad financial players. Its paper pervaded the system and was seemingly owned like U.S. government paper was. It was levered against and it was priceless collateral that is, well, priceless collateral. It did things with your margin account to gain you a return that reduced your cash to unsecured status.
In short, Lehman may bring down the Western financial world. That's right, it might. Almost everything you are seeing since Lehman's demise can be traced directly or indirectly to Lehman.
Thursday's run on the insurers like MetLife (NYSE: MET) (Cramer's Take) and Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG) (Cramer's Take) and Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU) (Cramer's Take) may have come about because a reckless senator said an insurance company may go bankrupt. Thanks, Harry Reid!
But the reason it had such impact is because people started thinking, "How could my annuity be so guaranteed against market losses? Who took the other side of that? How can I necessarily be sure that my death benefit money for my wife and kids is necessarily there? Will my health insurance pay off?"
These are now imaginable questions post-Lehman because Lehman hedged so many companies' exposures and was considered an expert at laying out bond risk.
Of course, all of this was caused by a risk culture that was out of control. But it would not have gotten so desperate if it weren't for -- you guessed it -- house price depreciation.
There was a time that this mortgage bailout bill would have mattered, pre-Lehman, when Lehman could have been made whole by it.
But too much time has passed. Too many institutions are now out of cash, too many discovering the hole Lehman put them in.
So, alas, it doesn't much matter anymore. I figure the bill will save JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) (Cramer's Take) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take). And everyone else in finance will be fodder for the shorts, panicked longs, the ratings agencies and ultimately the morgue if things don't stabilize soon.
Big if.
Remember, though, it is just finance. Companies that can self-finance, companies that do not need financing to put out their products, are about to take over the rest of the world.
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RELATED LINKS:
Bailout Vote in House Expected to Be Tight
Cramer: My Talk With McCain
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long JPMorgan Chase.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
10-03-2008 @ 11:55AM
VC said...
the only companies that I can think of that self-finance are drug cartels...and even they probably have some money in the market...
10-03-2008 @ 10:20AM
Ken said...
"In short, Lehman may bring down the Western financial world. That's right, it might. Almost everything you are seeing since Lehman's demise can be traced directly or indirectly to Lehman. "
So that's your in-depth analysis? It's wrong, but you won't admit it. Blind greed is what is causing this. Overinflated housing prices, coupled with unethical lending and rating procedures, along with the outsourcing craze that decimates the middle class.
You own a part of companies that are destroying American's lives, and endangering the lives of the people in countries with no labor or safety standards. Yet you're not bad people, just because you profit from it.
10-03-2008 @ 10:57AM
paul s said...
It is not the deflation of real estate that has wrought this. It was the inflation of real estate that sent us down this road. You are right about self financed companies. Most small business do not need "overnight" money markets to meet their payrolls. They have retained enough earnings to do that. The renewal of our economy will come from the ground floor, from the sidewalks, the pedestrians that stroll them. There will be room ,now, at the top, for change. It is natural for us to look for a definitive answer, a root cause of the accident, what started the fire. The answer is no deeper than the mirror I gaze into each morning when I wash my face and hands.
10-03-2008 @ 11:37AM
Denise said...
The problem started even before housing began to inflate. It started when investors were complaining that they needed more investment income because yields were so low (hear the more). So Wallstreet did what any entrepreneur would do - look to fill a need. Then some households wanted a mortgage but didn't have the credit ratings due to some bad luck story and believed their lives would improve if they got the loan (hear the greed). Wallstreet again did what any entrepreneur would do - it looked to fill a need. Then as house prices inflated more products became available. The media told people to buy homes, community organizers threatened massive lawsuits if loans weren't made to those who had limited resources (hear the manipulation). So again, more products became available and this is when the problem started, manipulation to the market got out of control. When the community organizers got in the picture, everything fell apart. The guy with limited resources hadn't developed enough work ethics to keep from walking away especially if he couldn't get rich quick. Investors started losing their investments and hard working people began losing their jobs. This might be a Lehman problem but it is more then that. It is a problem that people don't want to discuss because it's a human flaw problem and the people who actually got hurt are white collar workers. These are the people who lost their savings and their jobs. The media, the universities, etc. has to stop playing the we and they game. We all hurt when hurt comes our way.
10-03-2008 @ 11:47AM
gumbo koontz said...
Why are we still so so soft on Big Oil? they are responsible for the foreclosures and everything else... Why is oil prices still stuck in the $90's?? I thought it would be $50 by now... seriously ..
10-03-2008 @ 11:48AM
Casey said...
It is time for Mr. Cramer to take a vacation...a long one. Thinking positive can be good for the financial soul...
10-03-2008 @ 11:50AM
gumbo koontz said...
Why are we still so so soft on Big Oil? they are responsible for the foreclosures and everything else... Why is oil prices still stuck in the $90's?? I thought it would be $50 by now... seriously ..
10-03-2008 @ 12:11PM
RE broker said...
Can't blame any one player. Be it the homeowner who wanted to use the equity that is supposed to be gradually built and left into their homes. A home is meant to be a store of value, not an ATM machine. Consumers used credit like a drug, overly indulgently feeding their greed hoping to seek a "better" life.
Be it Wall Street, who as one poster correctly identified as seeking to make a profit from the ignorance of those consumers who did not know any better. They were front and center ready and willing to provide the capital to such an extent it became destructive to the consumer, and in my view no different than a drug pusher looking for an easy mark.
Be it our government, who spinelessly went along with the whole scenario, unwilling to control Wall Street, and unwilling to confront the consumer for fear of losing their contributions and vote(s).
The bottom line is everybody tried to make too much with too little, with no regard for the consequences.
And like all pyramid schemes, it eventually has, or will fail shortly.
If you want to place blame, go ahead look all around you, and look in the mirror.
If we are to ever have a social economic system that works, we need to do some real soul searching.
I just wonder how many people will want to remove God from our culture should the worse case scenario become reality??
10-03-2008 @ 12:11PM
KIN said...
Cramer sucks as a stock picker. I see him in the same light as I see G. BUSH - totally incompetent at making predictions.
10-03-2008 @ 12:48PM
JJ said...
Please get off the "big oil" train. Think...it's the Barney Franks and Chris Dodds of this world and the far left wackos that are responsible for the housing collapse. Forcing lenders to give mortgages to people who cannot properly qualify is just plain suicide....so here we go over the side??? All of Congress needs to be removed and new people put in...they couldn't do any worse.
10-03-2008 @ 1:14PM
James said...
the point is about the rescue plan.
It's like your house catching fire in a drought. If you can stop the fire before it engulfs the house with what water reserves you have, then do so. However if it’s already being consumed by the flames there is no reason to throw the last bucket of water on it. You'll end up with no house and no water.
Be sure to thank any congressman that didn't act last week, by voting them out of office… was the pork worth it?
10-03-2008 @ 1:17PM
joe said...
TELL BOY GEORGE THANKS I HOPE ON ALL OF IT
10-03-2008 @ 1:16PM
James said...
the point is about the rescue plan.
It's like your house catching fire in a drought. If you can stop the fire before it engulfs the house with what water reserves you have, then do so. However if it’s already being consumed by the flames there is no reason to throw the last bucket of water on it. You'll end up with no house and no water.
Be sure to thank any congressman that didn't act last week, by voting them out of office… was the pork worth it?
10-03-2008 @ 1:50PM
RE broker said...
James don't be so hard on the House, if that vote had passed it was going to get "porked" in the Senate anyway!
Just remember to thank your appropriate elected officials on their next election day!
10-03-2008 @ 3:02PM
Dallas said...
Do not be fooled by the temp drop in oil pricing. Get set for $250.00 oil with Gold 3 to 5 K per Troy. Go for foriegn stocks geltlemen until things totally tank and recover here in the good old USA." You anit seen nothin yet" Our economy is still a house of cards just beginning to fall.
10-03-2008 @ 3:38PM
vince said...
I like the last bucket of water on the burning house analogy...but it scares the hell out of me. Is the US Economy about to crumble? Really?
10-03-2008 @ 4:16PM
R. C. Jackman said...
Questions! The bailout contains as I understand it a mart-to-market provision. Does this not require that the morgage packages must be reevaluated to a realistic value before they are sold? Would that by itself not allow for greater liquidity? Would not private companies then be interest is buying such packages? And if the government were then to buy, would not the government have to pay a higher rate, and expect a diminished profit?
10-03-2008 @ 4:07PM
Bryan Cox said...
What's hot on Wall Sreet or any street this Halloween? Well Halloween is almost upon us and the search for the scariest costume starts. This year if you really want to scare folks I would suggest dress up as the past CEO of Fanny Mae, Freddy Mac or Lehman Brothers. People will recognize you right away because of the limo your riding in and the golden parachute strapped to your back. You must also barge up to every door while kicking the little people out of the way. It’s very important to remember that when you arrive at the door and the person scolds you for your abuse of the little ones, you must say “Sorry it wasn’t my fault and by the way I need at least half your candy before I leave...you owe it to me”.
BUT, If you really want to have some fun at this time of the year here’s a plan. I always get weird looks when I do this. Here’s what you need...a spray bottle filled with water, a long dirty trench coat and a very crazed shaky appearance. During the busiest time of the day, go to the store. Before you go in spray your face with the water. Now go a get a bag of apples and a package of razor blades. Head up to the check up line, with water slowly dripping down your face, start rolling your eyes, throw in a few shaky jerky movements, then turn to a few folks in line and say something like...” I love Halloween, hope there’s tons of kids this year”.
Have a safe and happy halloween kids and thanks for the read.
Bryan Cox
10-03-2008 @ 7:16PM
ZipWizard said...
There's a massive turn-around in play here that has gone virtually unnoticed, because fear has been clouding it. Instead of a recession, once a new president is installed, and everyone calms down, people will be feeling good and full of hope. New rules brought into play, by mid spring, will show us the daylight of the longest and most unexpected economic expansion the world has yet seen. It could last 20 years as the global markets kick in full strength. There is new and exciting technologies coming online in 2009...such as the 100% digital HDTV revolution, and so many renewable energy gadgets and products to introduce...it boggles the mind. Expansions in aerospace are also coming up next year with the commercialism of space. And T. Boone Pickens will be starting his windmill plan. Has the recession already hit bottom? Absolutely YES. It's over. DOW prediction for 2016? 18,000. Hold on, and it will be much better in 2009.
10-08-2008 @ 1:17PM
ZipWizard said...
I had mentioned recently we've reached the bottom of the DOW, now that the bailout is in play...well not entirely. I'll bet it skids along a bottom that bounces like a skipping stone between 9500 and 10500 until early spring. It's a soft bottom. Then, as the daylight of a recovery starts to show-up, despite intermittent employment figures, and reorganization, we'll be witnessing the longest economic expansion ever before seen. It involves the global market pulling each-other up on a massive scale as an awesome alternative energy technology economy starts to kick in.