The U.S. economy continues to shed jobs. Global economic growth is slowing. And public officials on both sides of the Atlantic are preparing rescue packages to stabilize financial markets wracked by the worst bout of credit 'losses and fear' in generations.

Amid the mounting financial and economic concerns there has been one bright spot: oil prices, which have dropped more than 35% since July and are likely to decline more in the months ahead. Oil rose 40 cents to $94.33 per barrel in Friday morning trading.

'The one positive for U.S. consumers, businesses'

Economist Peter Dawson said falling oil demand in the U.S., from both conservation and (unfortunately) a decrease in commercial activity is a factor, as is a slowdown in oil consumption growth in emerging markets, including giants China and India.

Further, the price decline is "the one positive for U.S. consumers and businesses" this year, Dawson said.

"If the price decline continues, it will be like a mini-tax cut. Think of it this way, for each $10 drop in the barrel of oil, Americans pay about $70-75 billion less per year in oil expenses. That money can be used to pay monthly expenses, pay down debt, or saved / invested," Dawson said. Gasoline prices, currently averaging about $3.60-$3.80 per gallon nationally, should drop to the $3.20-$3.50 range, with some areas seeing prices below $3 in 2009, Dawson said.

OPEC, Dawson said, could attempt to support prices if it cuts production, but given probable lower global GDP growth, oil prices are likely to nevertheless trend toward $75-80 by mid-2009, he said. "Oil inventories will build globally, perhaps limited somewhat if the northern hemisphere experiences a very cold winter, but cyclical patterns suggest that won't occur, so the bias is decidedly lower for oil over the next 6-9 months" he said.

Oil Analysis: Economist Dawson wouldn't comment on the oil 'bubble' question. Bubbles have burst in most other commodities (and, of course, in housing), but oil is a more-complicated case study, he said, given the magnitude of its role in commerce. Regardless, the handwriting is on the wall for prices, near-term: oil demand is easing around the world, taking pressure off prices.